UFC Fight Night 258 takes place in Paris, France tomorrow and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho

No. 2 ranked middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov rides a four-fight win streak into this potential title eliminator with the No. 7-ranked Caio Borralho, who has yet to taste defeat in the UFC after compiling a 7-0 run so far.

Though he was born in Dagestan, the 30-year-old Imavov will feel right at home tomorrow as he’s lived in France for most of his life. Imavov doesn’t necessarily have a dazzling skill-set in any particular facet, but his robust all-round ability, physical strength and durability has led to numerous wins over quality opponents, including TKO’ing former champ Israel Adesanya last time out. He’s a good kickboxer who manages distance well behind his jab and teep kicks, and will layer in solid punches and kicks behind that, while also employing knees and elbows at closer range. Imavov is typically not a fast finisher, but his steady power and volume certainly makes it’s mark over time. Meanwhile he also has solid wrestling ability and punishing ground-and-pound, but while he can also grapple, it’s been many years since his last win by submission.

The 32-year-old Borralho is an athletic physical specimen with a strong track record, having only lost once in 19 career fights, and that solitary defeat was over a decade ago. Borralho has a good mix of speed and strength and can perform well wherever the fight goes, though he’s at his best when he uses his assured wrestling and grappling to get the fight to the mat and control his opponent. He has good ground-and-pound and though he doesn’t have many submission wins to his name at this stage, he certainly has the potential to do so. Striking wise, Borralho moves well and is fast, so while his output can be on the low side, when he does attack he’s able to land with speed and accuracy.

Both of these fighters have the ability to be worthy title contenders and I expect this to be a competitive fight that will likely go all the way to the final bell. Borralho should have the edge on the mat, but Imavov is well-versed enough there to make life difficult for him. And on the feet, while Borralho has shown real improvement, Imavov is still the more tried-and-tested player there and has better volume-striking. So this really could go either way, but I’ll take Imavov’s defensive wrestling and steadily effective striking and work-rate on the feet to help him narrowly win by decision.

Pick: Nassourdine Imavov wins by decision.

Benoît Saint Denis vs. Maurício Ruffy

Benoit Saint Denis earned a submission victory a few months ago to move past back-to-back defeats and now goes up against a rising contender in Mauricio Ruffy, who is 3-0 in the Octagon so far.

A former member of the French Army Special Forces, The 29-year-old Saint Denis made a name for himself early in his UFC run with five stoppage wins in a row. However, BSD’s rise up the ranks was halted by two tough defeats last year against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano via KO and TKO respectively. As such he’ll have been relieved to get back in the win column last time out, although a submission win over Kyle Prepolec, a debuting fighter coming in on short notice, doesn’t fully wipe the slate clean. Saint Denis recent durability concerns are problematic as he’s the kind of tough, all-action fighter who in the past has shown an ability to walk through punishing blows to land his own. So his striking strategy may need an overhaul, but BSD does have other strings to his bow as he’s also a very capable wrestler and is a proven grappling threat too, with the vast majority of his finishes prior to joining the UFC having been by submission, and he’s finished three opponents in that fashion during his time in the Octagon too.

The 29-year-old Ruffy has been one of the recent stand-outs from the Contender Series and is part of the very successful ‘Fight Nerds’ camp that also includes main event star Caio Borralho. Ruffy is a skilful and calculated technical striker with good timing, accuracy and shot selection. 11 of his 12 career victories have come via strikes, and that includes TKO’ing Jamie Mularkey in his UFC debut and KO’ing King Green with a wheel-kick earlier this year. Ruffy isn’t the finished article yet though as his defense could still use work and he’s not yet been tested on the mat.

BSD would be wise to make full use of his ground game, but I think there will be a good amount of striking exchanges here and I don’t think that will work out well for him as he’s too hittable for a sharp, technical striker like Ruffy.

I don’t think this is a good match-up for Saint Denis striking wise, but it would be interesting if he really focuses on his ground game here. However, I think we will see a lot of striking, and I feel Ruffy’s technique and accuracy will enable him to pick apart the all-too-hittable BSD, leading to a third round TKO finish.

Pick: Mauricio Ruffy wins by TKO in Rd3.

Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones

Oki has won two of his three UFC fights to date and now goes up against Mason Jones, who defeated Jeremy Stephens to begin his second stint in the Octagon.

The 29-year-old Oki, aka ‘Zulu Warrior’ is a physical presence and has powerful, accurate striking, including good body work that stopped two opponents in a row prior to arriving in the UFC. Both his wins in the Octagon so far have been by decision though, and while he’s a clear threat on the feet, his ground game is less convincing.

Jones is a former two-division Cage Warriors champion who previously had a 1-2 (+1nc) UFC stint before departing in 2022. Now back and looking to make a bigger impact this time around, the Welshman thrives in stand-up exchanges, bringing natural aggression, solid boxing, and impactful knees. He’s proven durable too, having never having been finished, but his willingness to absorb shots can be risky. Jones also has decent wrestling and some grappling ability, though his three submission wins came very early in his career.

There’s a fair chance Jones gets lured into a striking battle here, and Oki could punish him for that. However, giving Jones the benefit of the doubt here I say he’ll make use of his wrestling to stifle Oki’s offensive threat and help him win by decision.

Pick: Mason Jones wins by decision.

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig

Modestas Bukauskas has won five of his six fights since joining the UFC and now locks horns with Paul Craig, who is in dire need of a victory, having only picked up one in his last seven appearances.

Bukauskas only managed a 1-3 record in his first UFC run, but after going on to win Cage Warriors light-heavyweight title he was given another chance in the Octagon and has made the most of it so far. However, the 31-year-old hasn’t gone up against the toughest slate of competition so far, with his biggest win being over Ion Cutelaba by split-decision, and his most notable match-up against Vitor Petrino ending in a KO loss. Still, he’s a physically strong 205lb’er with a solid kickboxing base, demonstrating good technique and genuine power. Bukauskas can mix in takedowns at times, but that won’t be on his mind in this match-up and instead he’ll be eager to keep the fight standing at all times.

At 37-years-old Craig is very much a known quantity. His game still revolves almost entirely around his dangerous submission skills, and in particularly his trademark triangle choke that has caught out many an opponent over the years. However, beyond that his limitations are painfully clear as he has sub-par athleticism, poor striking, and lacks wrestling ability to get the fight where he wants it. As a result, he’s often left absorbing heavy punishment while exhausting himself repeatedly trying to work takedowns or pull guard, and he’s suffered three TKO losses in the past three years.

This should play out like a movie we’ve seen many times before as Craig can’t get Bukauskas down and gets beat up on the feet, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas wins by TKO in Rd2.

Rhys McKee vs. Axel Sola

This fight was promoted to the main card during fight week and sees Rhys McKee coming in fresh off his first UFC victory to face undefeated newcomer Axel Sola, who holds a 10-0-1 record.

The 29-year-old has long been a force on the regional scene but has struggled to translate that to success in the Octagon. His first UFC stint in 2020 ended quickly after two straight losses, and though he earned another shot following three stoppage wins in Cage Warriors, his 2023 return brought two more defeats. His recent first-round finish of Daniel Frunza was a welcome boost, but it came against a short-notice Contender Series prospect, so questions marks remain about his staying power at this level. Nicknamed ‘Skeletor’ due to his tall, lean frame, McKee uses a rangy jab and high-volume striking to wear opponents down. All 14 of his career wins have come inside the distance, with the vast majority being via strikes, but his defensive lapses, shaky takedown defense, and lack of physical strength remain problematic at this level.

The 27-year-old Sola will make his UFC debut in front of a home crowd in France and is moving up a weight class to do it. Well-rounded and with proven cardio from recent five-round experience, he’s ok on the feet, but does his best work on the mat and in the clinch, using wrestling and grappling to dictate the fight. While his level of competition hasn’t been the best, he’s shown good composure so far in his career, but now has to prove he can do so in the UFC.

Sola will have to be wary of what McKee brings on the feet, but with his advantage on the mat I think he’ll be able to control the action and mark his debut with a decision victory.

Pick: Axel Sola wins by decision.

Patrício Pitbull vs. Losene Keita

Ex Bellator ace Patricio Pitbull has gone 1-1 since joining the UFC earlier this year and is now set to welcome newcomer Losene Keita to the Octagon, who has gone 16-1 in his career to date.

It’s great that Pitbull has had the opportunity to fight in the UFC given that he was a former two-division Bellator champion who was a star throughout his long campaign in that rival promotion. However, the reality is that at 38-years-old and with 45 fights already behind him, we’re no longer seeing Pitbull at his best. That being said, he showed he’s still a threat by beating Dan Ige on the scorecards just a couple of months ago after a disappointing debut against Yair Rodriguez earlier in the year. The short, stocky Pitbull is a very well-rounded fighter with a wealth of experience at his disposal. On the feet he has heavy hands and powerful low kicks, but he isn’t as fast as he used to be and his volume has diminished. He is still a smart counter-striker though, and is good at bringing his skilled wrestling and grappling ability into the equation. He has as many wins via submission as he does via strikes (12 each), and his guillotine choke in particular is a big threat.

The 27-year-old Keita has been a breakout star on the European scene, becoming both the Oktagon featherweight titleholder and lightweight tournament champion. Now dropping back to 145 lbs for his UFC debut, the ‘Black Panther’ is an exciting striker who brings explosive speed, power, and athleticism. He mixes crisp body work with rapid-fire combinations and uses feints well too. However, he can be overly reliant on reflexes for defense and is still raw technically with a tendency to load up on his punches too much. Meanwhile His ground game has so far leaned more on athleticism than sound technique, and that’s something the UFC’s higher level of competition could expose.

Keita is an entertaining fighter to watch so it’s good to see him in the Octagon, but it’s not necessarily a great match-up for him here. His size, speed and energy can certainly trouble the aging veteran here, but there will be defensive holes for the crafty Pitbull to exploit along the way if he opts to trade with him on the feet. I don’t think he will though, as I’d expect the wily veteran to make full use of his stronger ground game to get the better of Keita on the mat to win by decision.

Pick: Patricio Pitbull wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchała
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija
Sam Patterson vs. Trey Waters
Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek
Andreas Gustafsson vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes