UFC Fight Night 265 takes place tomorrow in Qatar and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker
Arman Tsarukyan had to withdraw from a scheduled 155lb title fight on weigh-in day late last year and so now he has to attempt to re-earn a title shot when he goes up against the 7th ranked Dan Hooker, who enters the bout riding a three-fight winning streak.
At 29-years-old, Tsarukyan is a good example of a modern mixed martial artist, being well-rounded, athletic, and well conditioned too. Though not the most imposing fighter physically, he compensates with fast, crisp striking technique, and slick footwork. His defense is tight, and while he isn’t a natural knockout artist, he’s evolved into a legitimate finishing threat, with four of his last six UFC victories coming via strikes. Tsarukyan blends striking into takedown attempts seamlessly, showcasing his strong wrestling and scrambling ability. While he does have a few submission finishes on his record that tends not to be his primary focus these days, but he does have good control and transitions.
The 35-year-old Hooker looked at risk of fading out of relevance a few years ago after losing four out of five fights, with three of them being by first-round stoppage. However, he’s since rejuvenated his career, stopping Claudio Puelles before battling to split-decision wins over Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot. Hooker is on the lanky side for a lightweight and as such will enjoy a 5-inch height and 3.5-inch reach advantage here. And he’ll take advantage of all eight of those long limbs to attack his opponents, and has had success finding finishes with each. He thrives in hard-fought battles, but even when he wins he does tend to absorb damage in the process, and that could well catch up to him quickly at this stage in his career. Meanwhile, Hooker’s wrestling and submission skills are serviceable, but he has been stopped by submission three times in his career.
Hooker’s toughness and willingness to engage make him dangerous, but I think Tsarukyan’s technical polish and athleticism on the feet and on the mat will help him to earn a win by decision.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan wins by decision.
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry
Belal Muhammad saw the welterweight title slip from his grasp via a unanimous decision defeat against Jack Della Maddalena back in May. Now, the veteran looks to rebound against Ian Machado Garry, who improved his UFC record to 9-1 after beating Carlos Prates in April.
Muhammad’s climb to the top was built more on grit and consistency rather than raw power or flashy finishes. During his 11-fight unbeaten run, the 37-year-old made the most of his dependable cardio, durability, and smart fight IQ to maximize a solid all-round skill-set. Though not a knockout threat, Muhammad applies steady pressure well with assured fundamentals, while he’s also strong in the clinch and has a strong wrestling base. Despite his experience he actually only has one career submission win to his name though, highlighting the fact that he’s more focused on controlling opponents than finishing them. With that in mind he’ll have been disappointed in his struggles to impose his wrestling against Maddalena last time out after coming off second-best in the striking exchanges, especially given that Islam Makhachev has since successfully done so.
The 28-year-old Garry showcased his striking composure, sound technique, and ability to manage distance with volume, footwork, and smart shot selection in his latest victory over the highly regarded knockout machine Carlos Prates. Garry also added another strategic layer by wisely mixed in takedown attempts to keep Prates guessing, and it paid off for him. And while he’s still primarily a striker, he has previously demonstrated solid takedown defense, an ability to fend off submission attempts, and flashes of his own offensive grappling ability too.
If this plays out purely as a striking battle then I do feel that Garry has the advantage with his size and sharper technique. However, I feel that the former champ Muhammad will game-plan accordingly here, looking to embrace the grind with clinch work and wrestling control on top to frustrate Garry and ensure he gets back in the win column via the judges scorecards.
Pick: Belal Muhammad wins by decision.
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield
Volkan Oezdemir returns to action following a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg last year to fight Alonzo Menifield, who has won both of his fight so far in 2025.
The 36-year-old Oezdemir continues to be a fighter who struggles to live up to the fast start he made in the UFC eight years ago, when a couple of first round KO victories fast-tracked him to a premature title shot. It proved to be too much too soon and all these years later he now holds a middling 8-7 UFC record. A seasoned kickboxer with genuine knockout power, Oezdemir rarely strays from his tried-and-tested fundamentals, which can make him fairly predictable. He also doesn’t have the highest output, often appearing happy to just settle for a slower paced fight. Still, he does possess capable takedown defense and, though rarely used, has occasionally been able to show some offensive wrestling and grappling chops.
Menifield endured a damaging 2024 campaign that saw him suffer consecutive knockout losses, but he has since steadied himself with two decision wins this year. A powerfully built fighter, Menifield likes to impose his physicality on his opponents with heavy punches and punishing kicks on the feet, together with crushing ground-and-pound on the mat, leading to 10 finishes via strikes. The 38-year-old’s cardio isn’t always convincing though so he tends to fight at a slow tempo, and his chin remains a clear concern given his recent knockout defeats, and isn’t helped by his defensive lapses at times.
Both fighters here rely more on power than pace to gain the upper-hand, so it might be a bit slow-going until someone lands something big. And I think with Menifield’s chin being on the decline it’ll be Oezdemir who ends the fight by TKO in the second round, if not sooner.
Pick: Volkan Oezdemir wins by TKO in Rd2.
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Jack Hermansson has spent the past six years alternating wins and losses in the UFC, and will now attempt to make a fresh start by dropping down to welterweight for a clash with Myktybek Orolbai, who has gone 3-1 in the Octagon.
Hermansson’s durability has shown worrying signs of starting to wane, with two losses to strikes in his last three outings, including a 1st round KO defeat to Gregory Rodrigues back in June. Still, the 37-year-old remains a savvy veteran who looks to keep opponents at bay with his straight punches and low kicks, and when pressured is ready to counter by changing levels for takedowns. He’ll have a 3″ height and reach advantage to aid his cause here, and on the mat he offers a significant threat by both submissions and ground-and-pound.
Orolbai, is a decade younger than Hermansson and is moving up to 170lbs after issues staying under the lightweight limit, which could be a beneficial move. He has a versatile skill-set, though his strongest suits come in the wrestling and grappling departments. That being said, he also has solid boxing fundamentals and respectable power on the feet too . And he’s proven himself a consistent finisher, with 12 of his 14 career wins coming inside the distance, shared evenly between knockouts and submissions.
I’m not convinced that dropping down to a competitive welterweight division at 37-years-old is going to pay dividends for Hermansson. Oralbai has youth and durability on his side, will be comfortable wherever the fight goes, and I think he’ll go on to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Myktybek Orolbai wins by TKO in Rd2.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
Waldo Cortes-Acosta agreed to replace Serghei Spivac on less than four days notice against Shamil Gaziev, who has compiled a 3-1 record in the UFC.
The 34-year-old Cortes-Acosta comes in just three week after overcoming an early eye-poke against Ante Delija, before going on to deliver a KO finish soon after. Fortunately, the eye-poke injury proved minor, allowing him to seize this late-replacement opportunity as he looks to build on a very active 2025 campaign that’s already seen him go 3-1. A former baseball player who turned to MMA 10 years ago, Cortes-Acosta utilizes his athleticism and durability to enhance a relatively stripped down, boxing-based style that seems working diligently behind his steady jab and nice footwork. He has demonstrated finishing power at times, but he doesn’t force the issue and is happy to just outpoint his opponent over three round. Meanwhile, his ground game is functional, but he clearly favors keeping the fight upright.
The 35-year-old Gaziev has a solid 14-1 career record, though his fights in the UFC have been mostly against lower level opposition, with his only significant test so far leading to his first career loss by TKO against Jairzinho Rozenstruik early last year. Stocky and powerful, Gaziev is a capable striker whose heavy hands have produced nine career finishes to date. He’s not the fastest though and can be quite hittable, but he’s able to complement his striking with clinch work, takedowns, and good ground-and-pound, along with an occasional submission finish.
Gaziev is a bit more well-rounded, but even though Cortes-Acosta is coming in on short-notice I think his speed advantage and typical jab-focused striking style could be enough to edge out a decision win here.
Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins by decision.
Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev
Alex Perez enters this matchup having dropped four of his last five UFC bouts, and is now set to fight Asu Almabayev, who has compiled a 5-1 record inside the Octagon.
The last six years have been a struggle for the 33-year-old Perez, who has not only had to deal with a series of losses, but also frequent injury issues that have led to several long layoffs and a whopping 14 fight cancellations. However, Perez may take some comfort from the fact that his losses have come against current and former flyweight champions like Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, along with undefeated prospects Muhammad Mokaev and Tatsuro Taira. It’s also worth noting that his lone win in that time was a knockout of another notable fighter, Matheus Nicolau. Perez returns to action here after nearly 18 months out due to a knee injury he sustained in his last fight against Taira. Perez is a wrestle-boxer who will work combinations to the head-and-body along with low kicks while also hunting out takedowns opportunities. On the mat, he’s effective with ground-and-pound and owns seven submission victories, though his defense is less assured, having been submitted five times himself.
The 31-year-old Almabayev has an overall 22-3 record, so he has a good amount of experience and has made a solid impression in the UFC, though a TKO loss to Manel Kape earlier this year did slow his rise up the rankings. A well-rounded and durable competitor, Almabayev has proven to be a capable striker, but shines brightest with his relentless wrestling. His explosive entries and physical strength allow him to control opponents on the mat in order to grind out wins, but he does also have a respectable submission game too.
Given Perez’s long history of injuries and inactivity I favor the more dependable Almabayev here to dictate the wrestling exchanges and fight his way to a decision victory.
Pick: Asu Almabayev wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock
Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
