UFC On ABC 5 takes place tomorrow night in Jacksonville, Florida and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
Emmett had his five-fight winning streak snapped in February when he was submitted in the second round by Yair Rodriguez in an interim bantamweight title fight. Now he faces the unbeaten Topuria, who has won all of his five UFC bouts so far.
Emmett is a strong wrestler, but he instead prefers to keep the fight on the feet where he can take advantage of his heavy-handed boxing, with his overhand right in particularly having hurt or finished numerous opponents. Emmett is 38 years old, but he still has good cardio and durability, though he’s eaten big shots at times and has had several injury setbacks over the years, so it’s surely only a matter of time before that takes its toll.
Topuria is 12 years younger than Emmett at 26 and has been dominant in his 13-0 career so far. In the UFC, he’s been hailed for his fast, accurate and hard-hitting striking skills that delivered three knockouts in a row against Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall and Jai Herbert. However, he’s not just a striker, as he he’s a skilled wrestler and also served up a reminder of the submission ability that helped him win the first 7 fights of his career when he tapped out Bryce Mitchell last time out.
Emmett is a serious challenge for Topuria and he’ll have to be wary of his power, but the younger man is very confident at this stage of his career so he won’t be overawed by the occasion and I feel his speed, precision and power on the feet will trouble the veteran, while he could also threaten him with submissions if they go to the ground. I’ll pick Topuria to win by TKO in the third round.
Pick: Ilia Topuria wins by TKO in Rd3.
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Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber
Barber is the more in-form fighter heading into this one with 4 wins in a row as she now prepares to take on Ribas, who has gone 2-2 in her last 4 fights.
The 25-year-old Barber is a physically strong, tough fighter who likes to pressure her opponents up close and personal with her brawling and dirty-boxing in the clinch. She’s not very technical, but she does have significant power. Her wrestling is quit rudimentary and she isn’t effective off her back, but she can dish out heavy damage from the top position.
Meanwhile, Ribas is a well-rounded fighter who can strike and grapple well. The 29-year-old has a high output of technical punches and kicks, and uses her speed and footwork to create angles and avoid damage. She also has good takedowns and slick grappling skills that enables her to threaten with submissions whether she’s on top or underneath her opponent.
I think Ribas has the edge in most aspects of the fight and a significant advantage in speed that’ll help her get the better of the fight on the feet and on the canvas to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Amanda Ribas wins by decision.
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Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa
Back in 2010 Lane signed to the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars but struggled to get time on the pitch and moved between several teams before retiring in 2015 and switching to MMA, where he’s gone 12-3 so far.
Lane first appeared on the Contender Series back in 2018 and was swiftly TKO’d by another ex-NFL player Greg Hardy, but he eventually made it back to the show last year and won his place in the promotion with a TKO victory.
Lane stands 6″ taller than Tafa and has 6″ in reach over him too. He will use that to strike from distance with his mix of boxing and kicks, which has led to 11 finishes from his 12 career wins, with most coming inside the opening round . However, he struggles when he’s pressured at closer range.
Tafa is a stocky, hard-hitting slugger who has a 3-3 record in the UFC so far while going up against mostly low-tier heavyweights on the roster. He is not very technical or defensively-minded, but he can trouble opponents with his hooks and body shots.
I think Tafa will be willing to walk into the fire here to land his heavy blows at close range, paving the way for him to deliver a 1st round knockout.
Pick: Justin Tafa wins by KO in Rd1.
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David Onama vs. Gabriel Santos
Onama has a 2-2 record in the promotion and suffered a majority decision defeat against Nate Landwehr last year, while Santos lost a close split-decision in his UFC debut a few months ago.
Onama is a fast, powerful and diverse striker. He has a 2″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Santos and will make effective use of that, though he’s still there to be hit at times. has suspect takedown defense, but 4 of his 10 career wins have come by way of submission.
Santos is a smooth and technical striker who can switch stances and move well. He works well as a counter-striker, but isn’t afraid to press the action too. He’s not typically a big knockout threat, but he will blend in other aspects of his game, utilizing wrestling and he has some submission ability too.
This is a competitive fight, but I think Santos has an edge in striking technique and with some well-timed takedowns mixed in too I think he can earn a decision win here.
Pick: Gabriel Santos wins by decision.
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Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
Allen is on a roll with four consecutive wins since early 2022, while Silva bounced back from two losses with a TKO of Brad Tavares in April.
The 27-year-old Allen has improved upon his versatile skill-set during his 9-2 run in the UFC so far. On the feet he has developed an effective selection of kicks and lands with good accuracy, though he does also takes damage and has been stopped by strikes twice in the promotion. Allen’s grappling is his strongest suit and he’s finished 12 of his 21 career wins via submission, while also being a good wrestler too.
Silva is a knockout artist with 20 of his 23 wins coming via strikes. The lure of a big finish can become a singular focus for him though and will overswing on some punches, but he’s yet to be finished by strikes and made it the full three rounds against Alex Pereira in a losing effort last year. However, he is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted 6 times, including by Gerald Meerschaert last year in a fight where he looked both out-of-shape and out-of-sorts.
Allen is the more dependable fighter here and with his more well-rounded, technical skills I think he’ll make use of his significant advantage on the mat to secure a second round submission win.
Pick: Brendan Allen wins by submission in Rd2.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Neil Magny vs. Phil Rowe
Randy Brown vs. Wellington Turman
Tatsuro Taira vs. Kleydson Rodrigues
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Joshua Van
Tabatha Ricci vs. Gillian Robertson
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Loik Radzhabov
Trevor Peek vs. Jose Mariscal
Jamail Emmers vs. Jack Jenkins
Tatsuro Taira vs. Kleydson Rodrigues
Sedriques Dumas vs. Cody Brundage
