UFC On ABC 7 takes place in Abu Dhabi tomorrow and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
The main event provides a bantamweight title eliminator as the No.2 ranked Cory Sandhagen looks for his 4th win in a row, while the 10th ranked and currently undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov already has five wins under his belt in the UFC so far.
The 32-year-old Sandhagen has been a major player in the division for quite some time now and has beaten the likes of Frankie Edgar, Marlon Vera, Song Yadong and Raphael Assuncao along the way, while only former divisional kingpins like Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan have managed to get the better of him. Sandhagen is a very assured striker who works particularly well from range with long, straight punches and a dynamic range of kicks to all levels, from tried-and-tested techniques through to spinning head kicks as well as the occasional flying knee. He’s also still mindful of his defense, aided by his distance management, and overall he has a style that enables him to be both a finishing threat but also capable of outstriking opponents to win on the scorecards. His striking and use of range is also his first line of defense against takedowns, and while he’s not immune to being brought to the mat he generally does a good job of working his way back to his feet.
There’s a weight of expectation on the 28-year-old Nurmagomedov’s shoulders given that his brother Usman is a current Bellator champion, while his cousin is UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov. To his credit Nurmagomedov has so far done his family proud by compiling a 17-0 record, but there’s no doubt this is a big step up for him. It’s no surprise that Nurmagomedov is a very good wrestler who transitions well from striking to takedowns with fast entries, while on the mat he is a significant threat via submission. However, Nurmagomedov is also a speedy striker who has a heavily kick-orientated style from range that gives his opponents plenty to think about and helps keep them at bay, though he’s not proven to be much of a finisher on the feet so far.
So both fighters like to strike from range, but I do think Sandhagen is the more effective, harder-hitter of the two. That being said, Nurmagomedov has a big wrestling advantage and the way he’s able to swiftly cover ground and transition from striking to takedown entries is going to be hard for even someone like Sandhagen to deal with, and so I’m leaning towards Nurmagomedov here to disrupt his opponent’s comfort level on the feet with his constant takedown threat and use periods of control on the mat to swing the fight in his favor enough to edge out a decision win.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by decision.
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Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
Sharabutdin Magomedov is coming off back-to-back wins in the UFC that leaves him with a perfect 13-0 career record. Next he squares up to Michael Oleksiejczuk, who has last twice by submission in 2024 so far.
The 30-year-old Magomedov is an aggressive and very dynamic kickboxer with an impressive finishing rate and he also possesses some particularly brutal knee strikes that have helped end five of his 13 fights, including his last Octagon appearance in late June. However, despite hailing from Dagestan, Magomedov actually has an unusually flimsy ground game, including highly suspect takedown defense and he struggle to get back up if taken down, which feels like it’s going to make it difficult for him to preserve his unbeaten record for long in the UFC.
With that in mind it’ll be interesting to see how the 29-year-old Oleskiejczuk approaches this fight. On the one hand he is a capable enough wrestler to bring Magomedov down and land punishing ground-and-pound. However, Oleksiejczuk will also be carrying the mental scars from having been submitted in three of his last four UFC bouts, and in total 6 of his 8 career losses have come in that fashion. And Oleksiejczuk is also a striker first-and-foremost, so he may well welcome the opportunity to just keep this one on the feet. He’s not all that technical with his stand-up and he’s too willing to eat punches, but he’s durable and hard-hitting enough to employ a bullying style, constantly pressuring his opponents and swinging for the fences with his heavy hands, which has led to the vast majority of his UFC wins coming inside the distance.
I think Oleksiejczuk may keep his wrestling advantage in his back pocket as a plan B in this fight, but that will prove to be a mistake as being hittable is a problematic trait against someone with Magomedov’s finishing potential from punches, kicks and knees, so I think the Polish fighter’s pressure moves him into harm’s way early in the fight, leading to a 1st round TKO stoppage.
Pick: Sharabutdin Magomedov wins by TKO in Rd1.
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Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Moving on from losing in his title challenge against Sean O’Malley in March, Marlon Vera now takes on former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, who has won back-to-back fights since stepping up to bantamweight.
The 31-year-old Vera has proven to be an impressive striking force at times in his UFC career, as he has not only good punching power and solid accuracy, but also being a notable finishing threat via kicks, including KO’ing former champs Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar with head kicks, and setting up a finish against Sean O’Malley with punishing low kicks. Vera is also extremely durable, which is just as well as his striking defense isn’t the best. Vera is also a threat on the mat with good submission ability, and 33 fights in to his career he’s yet to be finished by either submission or strikes. A weak point for Vera though is that he tends to be a slow starter, and though he has had a knack for being able to produce a finish out of thin air late in a fight that he’s been losing, there’s times when he’s not able to do and is just outworked.
The 36-year-old Figueiredo’s memorable four-fight flyweight title series against Brandon Moreno saw both fighters sharpening iron with iron against each other, but for the Brazilian it ended in disappointment via a TKO loss. Those hard–fought battles took a toll on both fighters, but while that may have chipped away at Figueiredo’s durability he’s looked good so far after making a fresh start up at 135lbs. He still remains a talented technical striker whose carried his power with him up a division and he remains fast too. Figueiredo also benefits from being a well-rounded fighter too who will blend his striking with good wrestling and a significant submission threat, particularly via his guillotine choke.
I think Vera is the more potent striker of the two at bantamweight and he’s more durable too, but I think there’s a real chance this could be the kind of fight where his pacing issues hurt his chances as Figueiredo is capable of pushing a good pace and staying more active from the start, while also being more willing to mix in takedowns with his striking too. As such, while Vera might give him a tough time late on in the fight I think Figueiredo will have done enough by that point to just survive to the final bell and claim a decision victory.
Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo wins by decision.
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Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Tony Ferguson will go into the history books for having the longest losing streak in UFC history (8) if he is beaten by Michael Chiesa at the weekend. Chiesa is struggling for form too though, having lost his last three fights.
Ahead of this fight the 40-year-old Ferguson has said that he’s went back to sparring for the first time in seven years, and racked up over 120 rounds in preparation for this fight. As with last time out when he decided to train with ultramarathon runner David Goggins despite already having very good cardio, it feels like this latest plan might be flawed. After all, it feels like part of the reason for Ferguson’s decline has been the fact that he’s already taken so much damage over the years, so going back to sparring might not be the best idea. Time is not on his side either at this stage, but for this fight in particular his biggest concern should likely be that he’s become easier to outwrestle in recent years and also become more at risk of being submitted.
In many ways this feels like a fight the 36-year-old Chiesa will feel good about. For one thing, despite both fighters having fought at lightweight in the past, Chiesa has far more experience in that division, and is also far more suited to it physically. In fact, before his current losing slump he was actually on a four-fight winning streak in the division, in which his ability to outwrestle opponents was on full display. Chiesa has very good control on top, has a knack for taking the back, and has stopped 10 of his 16 career wins via submission over the years. Chiesa’s stand-up game is underwhelming though and is more of a means to an end as he looks to find ways to get the action to the mat, so he’ll have to be wary of Ferguson’s speed advantage and combinations.
It feels like it’s only a matter of time here before Chiesa gets the fight to the mat and with his suffocating control I think Ferguson will struggle to escape, either leaving Chiesa to grind out a win via decision or rack up a late submission finish. I’ll take the latter option.
Pick: Michael Chiesa wins by submission in Rd3.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
Mackenzie Dern has lost three of her last four fights and will now try to get back on track against Loopy Godinez, who went on a four-fight unbeaten run in 2023, but has lost her only fight this year on the scorecards.
Heading into this fight the 31-year-old Dern has stated that she wants to move on from her brawling style of striking. That’s encouraging as it clearly wasn’t working out for her, even though she is undoubtedly mentally tough and does carry some power in her punches. She’s just never seemed like a comfortable striker though, being too plodding with her movement and lacking fluidity in her strikes, as well as being too willing to eat punches. Dern was never supposed to be focused on being a striker anyway as she’s famed for her world-class grappling ability, and any time the fight hits the mat she suddenly becomes a far more formidable opponent. The problem though is that she doesn’t have the wrestling to get the fight to the mat in the first place, and so unless she can manufacture a scramble or pull guard she can often be left stranded on the feet, and it remains to be seen if that’s a problem she can solve before it’s too late.
The 30-year-old Godinez will be at a bit of a size disadvantage here, giving up 2″ in height and reach to Dern. She doesn’t have her opponent’s natural power either, but she is a more comfortable boxer than Dern, is lighter on her feet and is more cognisant of her defense while also still being more active offensively. Godinez’s strongest suit is her wrestling though as she’s physically strong for her size, has god takedowns and also has nice takedown defense as well. Her BJJ is capable without having much to show for it in terms of finishes, but she’ll want to avoid getting into grappling exchanges with someone of Dern’s calibre.
A move away from brawling seems a step in the right direction for Dern, but while it would be good to see her commit fully to her BJJ roots I think she’ll have a hard time bringing Godinez down to the mat. And if that does lead to a striking battle then I think Godinez’s speed, work-rate and better defense will allow her to outland her and win by decision.
Pick: Loopy Godinez wins by decision.
Joel Álvarez vs. Elves Brenner
Joel Alvarez earned a submission win last time out to go 5-2 overall in the UFC and now takes on Elvis Brenner, who was beaten by decision last time out, but had won three-in-a-row before that.
The 31-year-old Alvarez is unusually tall for the lightweight division at 6ft 2″ and that’ll give him a 4″ height and 5″ reach advantage in this fight. Alvarez likes to use his long limbs to strike from range with punches and kicks, but will also use them for elbow and knees at closer quarters too. He’s not a notable finisher on the feet, but it’s a different story when the fight spills to the mat as he’s happy to work off his back when required and has got an impressive 17 submission wins from 20 career wins.
The 26-year-old Brenner also has had considerable success locking up submissions over the years, accounting for 11 of his 16 wins, with armbar’s being a particular favorite of his. That being said, Brenner also likes to slug it out on the feet too, and while he only has three finishes via strikes, two of them have actually came in the past year or so in the UFC. He’s not a technical striker, but he does leverage all his weight into his punches and will also threaten with the occasional jumping knee too. His defense is poor, but he does have a strong chin and has never been stopped in his career.
I’ve gone back-and-forth about this pick, but in the end I think despite their submission prowess they might be tempted to just battle it out on the feet here, and I feel Brenner’s toughness and more damaging blows will lead him to a 2nd round finish.
Pick: Elves Brenner wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield
Mohammad Yahya vs. Kauê Fernandes
Shamil Gaziev vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic
Victoria Dudakova vs. Sam Hughes
Jai Herbert vs. Rolando Bedoya
Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin
