UFC On ESPN 52 takes place this coming Saturday night in Austin, Texas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card:
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Beneil Dariush fell just short of title contention earlier this year when his 8-fight winning streak was ended by Charles Oliveira, and now he takes on another tough opponent in Arman Tsarukyan, who has won 7 of his last 8 fights.
Dariush particularly excels on the mat as he’s a highly skilled grappler with good takedowns, smooth transitions and strong control on top. On the feet there was a time years ago when the 34-year-old seemed vulnerable after a couple of bad KO losses, but since then he’s actually become a much improved striker and a genuine finishing threat due to his impressive punching power. That, together with his solid kicks has provided a good deterrent to anyone trying to test his chin, but Oliveira did manage to TKO him in the 1st round last time out that may give others renewed confidence to try to do the same.
Like Dariush, the 27-year-old Tsarukyan also has a well-rounded set of skills. On the feet he’s not as big and doesn’t quite have the same level of knockout power, but he still lands impactfully and is the faster and more agile of the two. He’s a technically sound striker while still being aggressive and has the cardio to fight hard for the full five rounds. Meanwhile he’s also a very good wrestler, both offensively and defensively and will make the most of scrambling opportunities.
This is a very well-matched fight so it’ll be intriguing to see how it plays out. In the end though I feel Tsarukyan has a chance to outwork Dariush on the feet with his speed, agility and cardio, while his wrestling and scrambling will make it difficult for his opponent to get on top and keep the fight there, leading him to a hard-fought decision victory.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan wins by decision.
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Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green
Two split-decision losses in a row have taken the shine off of Jalin Turner’s prior five-fight winning streak and so now he’s looking to end the year on a better note by stepping in on just two weeks notice as a replacement for Dan Hooker to fight Bobby Green, who has earned two wins and a no-contest so far this year.
Huge by lightweight standards, the 6ft 3″ tall Turner will have a 5″ height and 6″ reach advantage over Green on Saturday night. The 28-year-old did have problems making weight last time out though, so he might have a tough weight cut ahead of him given the short-notice nature of this fight. Turner isn’t just lanky, he’s a genuinely good striker with impressive speed for his size, finishing power in his punches and solid kicks from range too. He’s not the best wrestler, but his grappling is another plus point and his long limbs help him to secure submissions.
The 37-year-old Green suffered a couple of losses via strikes last year, but the gritty veteran has done well to shake that off and get back to winning ways this year. He’s an assured, crafty boxer who stays calm in the heat of the moment even as he’s taunting his opponents, and reads the game well, rolling with the punches and attacking from unexpected angles. He can wrestle offensively and while he can be taken down his submission defense is quite sound.
The fact Turner hasn’t had much time to prepare is a concern and I think Green may take over later in the fight, but in the early rounds I feel Turner’s size, power and kicks will win out, enabling him to emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Jalin Turner wins by decision.
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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Rob Font
Deiveson Figueiredo’s flyweight title loss to Brandon Moreno in their 4th fight in January prompted him to make the move up to bantamweight for his next Octagon outing, where he’ll be going up against Rob Font, who has suffered 3 losses in his last 4 fights.
Font shouldn’t be underestimated based on those recent losses as he was going up against Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo. Not only that, but he did take them all to the scorecards, ensuring he’s still only been finished once in his 27 fight career. The 36-year-old good technical boxer who works off a particularly crisp jab, while also showing good hand speed and high-output as opposed to just going for a big finish. He can also wrestle offensively, but struggles more on the defensive side of the equation.
At 35-years-old Figueiredo will relish the fact that he doesn’t have to make the punishing weight cut to 125lbs, but it does mean he will now be a bit undersized in his new weight class at 5ft 5″ tall, leading to a 3″ height and 3.5″ reach disparity against Font. That being said, Figueiredo is fast, athletic and had proven finishing power at flyweight, and I’d expect those attributes to still be a factor at bantamweight too. And that’s not the only strings to his bow as he also can land some big takedowns and has good submission ability.
Figueiredo is now 35-years-old though and he may have left some of himself in the Octagon after his 4 fights with Moreno as he was finished by both strikes and submission for the first time in his career during that period and was also rocked multiple times. That being said, while I still feel he’d be better of at 125lbs I do think he has the edge over Font in most areas here and so I’ll take him to earn a win on points.
Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo wins by decision.
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Kelvin Gastelum vs. Sean Brady
It’s been 7 years since Gastelum was forced to move up to middleweight due to a series of weight-cutting fails, but now he’s dropping back down to 170lbs to fight Sean Brady, whose undefeated record finally came to an end last time out via TKO against Belal Muhammad.
Gastelum deserved to be pushed out of the 170lb ranks, but it did leave him in an awkward spot as his short, stocky stature meant that he was always at a significant height and reach advantage in his 185lb run. His record in the division over the years since has been relatively poor, but to be fair to him he was always going up against some of the best fighters in the division and was never an easy fight for anyone. In fact, he still demonstrated good power, speed and durability in the weight class and the fact he was never finished via strikes will give him confidence in his chin as he goes back down to welterweight.
And I feel Gastelum will have the striking advantage in this fight as he’s a better boxer than Brady and has naturally heavier and faster hands, together with that iron chin. Brady is a fairly capable striker in his own right though, but he really excels on the mat with strong grappling and wrestling, enabling him to control and dominate opponents and work for submissions and ground-and-pound.
That often leads to Brady bossing the action on top, but that might not be as easy to do against Gastelum, as he is actually a solid wrestler with good takedown defense. Gastelum’s potential for another botched weight cut is going to be a serious concern here and there’s question marks over his desire and motivation at this stage in his career too, which certainly isn’t the case with Brady. Nevertheless, I’m cautiously tempted to pick Gastelum here to spoil Brady’s hopes of consistently getting him to the mat, and to then outstrike him on the feet to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision.
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Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva
Clay Guida shows no signs of hanging up his gloves yet despite the fact he’ll turn 42-years-old in just a few days time. He’s been alternating between wins and losses for a few years now, with his last outing being a unanimous decision loss, so he’ll not try to get back in the win column once again against Joaquim Silva, who has gone 4-4 in his UFC run.
Silva actually started his time in the UFC brightly with three wins in a row, but he’s found the going tougher since. A big problem for him is that his poor form in recent times has included three losses via strikes, including two by KO. There’s little sign that he intends to change up his style however, as though he even has ‘BJJ’ in his name and is a talented grappler, he much prefers to go to war on the feet. And to be fair offensively he is dangerous with genuine power in his punches, good athleticism and an ability to launch into dynamic strikes, but he’s quite hittable, which is troubling giving his durability.
Guida has never been much of a finisher via strikes though. In fact, truth be told, while he always appears energetic on the feet he’s never really been particularly effective. However, Guida has always had cardio for days and is exceptionally tough, and while age is now having an effect on him, his energy reserves in particular are still good. And Guida is wisely turning to a more grinding, wrestling based strategy at this stage in his career, which has alway been a strong suit for him, though he can be susceptible to submissions on the mat.
I wouldn’t put it past Guida to grind out a win with his wrestling here, but any time they are on the feet I’d expect Silva’s power and dynamic striking to be a big danger for him, while his submission threat will also be a constant threat if he’s taken down. So I’ll go with Silva to emerge the winner here and perhaps put a dent in his aging opponents durability in the process by TKO’ing him in the 2nd round.
Pick: Joaquim Silva wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Both fighters in the main card record have unflattering records of late, with Punahele Soriano having gone 1-3 in his last four fights, while Dustin Stolzfus is only 1-4 in his entire UFC campaign.
Soriano perhaps suffers from being overly eager to just trade punches with his opponents. He likes to get into close quarters and is willing to eat blows to land his own, and in fairness, while he’s not the most technical he certainly has plenty of power. However, he is also a very capable wrestler too, yet he rarely opts to use it.
Stoltzfus has an inch in height and 2.5″ in reach over his opponent here, but he’ll likely prefer to keep the fight even further out at kicking range when on the feet as he’s not as hard-hitting or durable as Soriano. However, ideally Stolzfus would prefer to bring his grappling into play as though he’s been tapped out by some high-level players during his UFC run he still has plenty to offer there himself.
The catch for Stoltzfus here is that his wrestling is unlikely to be good enough to get Soriano to the mat to begin with, and on the feet I think it’s only a matter of time before that proves to be a big problem as Soriano applies pressure and swings for the fences to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Punahele Soriano wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila
Cody Brundage vs. Zachary Reese
Drakkar Klose vs. Joe Solecki
Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria
Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden
Veronica Hardy vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
