UFC On ESPN 54 takes place tomorrow night in Atlantic City, New Jersey and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
Having each gone six-fights unbeaten in the UFC so far, the No.2 and No.3 ranked Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot have a title shot in their sights when they face each other on Saturday night.
In many respects it feels like these two have both already done enough to earn their shot at the belt, so it’s unfortunate that one is going to fall short at the final hurdle. For Blanchfield the opportunity is coming fairly early in her career as she’s still only 24 years old. Despite that she already has a well developed skill-set, with her grappling in particular being a major strength, and her threat via submissions being complimenting by good ground-and-pound. Her wrestling isn’t on that same level, but it’s still good, while she’s also proven to be a willing striker too when required.
Fiorot is a decade older than Blanchfield at 34 and so there’s more pressure on her to seize her title opportunity while the window is open. To be fair to her though she’s shown no sign of being past her prime just yet and is coming off her biggest name win yet over Rose Namajunas. She’s a big flyweight who will have 3″ in height over Blanchfield and she makes her impression felt with her assured, impactful boxing ability, while she will add in kicks into her offense too. Fiorot had a good finishing record on the regional scene and also earned some stoppages early in her UFC run, but as her competition level has increased she’s proven she’s also comfortable just winning the battle over a longer stretch to win on the scorecards, showing good defense and movement to compliment her aggression.
This fight may well pivot on whether Fiorot can keep the fight standing as she is the better striker and Blanchfield is the superior grappler. I think Fiorot may be able to fend off some early attempts, but Blanchfield has proven to be someone whose not easily deterred and so while she may come off second-best in the early stages, I see her tenacity enabling her to find more success with takedowns as the fight progresses. Thanks to her active ground game that should then enable her to swing the momentum in her favor to eventually edge out a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Erin Blanchfield wins by decision.
—
Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley
After two losses in a row Luque got back to winning ways last time out with a decision win against Rafael dos Anjos and now moves on to fight Joaquin Buckley, who comes in off back-to-back victories.
The 32-year-old Luque not only suffered a KO loss to Geoff Neal back in 2022 but also suffered a brain hemorrhage in the process that led to him being out of action for a year. As such his win over RDA was a big confidence-boost, but whether that traumatic injury still has a psychological effect on a fighter who is known for his battling style of fighting remains to be seen. In the past he was always willing to eat a strike to land his own and had both the striking power in his combinations and also the strong chin to make that work for him. It feels like Buckley is more equipped than RDA to find out if that’s still the case, but it’s not the only string to Luque’s bow as he actually has a very capable submission game and is a solid wrestler too.
The 29-year-old Buckley’s rippling physique is matched by his explosive, dynamic striking ability and has led him to some highlight-reel KO finishes in the UFC that were so jaw-dropping that they went viral on social media. It’s hard to live up to that kind of hype though and things have sometimes not gone his way at all, having now been KO’d twice and TKO’d once during his 7-4 UFC run. However Buckley has made efforts to become more than just a big finisher, making improvements to his wrestling and cardio over time, though his striking is still by far his best weapon.
I’d feel more confident picking Luque here prior to that alarming brain bleed a couple of years ago, but nevertheless I still feel he’s the better fighter overall here, and given the potential risk on the feet here against such an explosive striker I could see him making more use of his ground game here to get the job done, leading him to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Vicente Luque wins by submission in Rd2.
Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva
Last August Weidman finally returned to action over two years after breaking his leg in a fight and went on to lose convincingly by unanimous decision to Brad Tavares. Now he takes on Bruno Silva, who has lost four of his last five fights.
The 39-year-old Weidman had talked about retiring after his upcoming fight when it was first announced, but he seems to be changing his mind now. That’s concerning as though his nasty leg break has been drawing all the attention, the reality is before that he’d actually lost five of his prior seven fights, with each defeat coming by way of KO or TKO.
At his peak Weidman was willing to strike with the best-of-the-best and successfully defended the middleweight title while doing so, but that was a long time ago and he’s now approaching 40-years-old with a shot chin and a vulnerable leg. And we’ve already seen that leg taken advantage of, with Tavares ruthlessly attacking it all fight long in his comeback fight last year on his way to an one-sided victory. So things don’t look good at all for Weidman, but he has always had very good wrestling and underutilized grappling, which perhaps offers him some glimmer of hope if he chooses to use it.
Certainly it could come in handy against the 34-year-old Silva as 7 of his 10 losses have come via submission. However on the feet it’s a different story as Silva is a wildly aggressive striker who swings for the fences and though he doesn’t have the best technique he’s a big finisher, with 20 of his 23 career wins being by strikes, while he himself has never been stopped in that fashioned. His wild swings mean that he certainly leaves himself open to being hit though and it should be noted that Silva has seemed somewhat out-of-sorts in recent performances.
If Weidman can’t get an early takedown here then I fear things are going to go badly quite quickly here. He looked even slower than usual in his comeback though, so I wonder if he can still be effective in exploding into takedown attempts. As such I think Silva finds his fragile chin on the feet in the opening round to deliver a KO finish that perhaps will finally convince the former champ to hang up his gloves.
Pick: Bruno Silva to win by KO in Rd1.
—
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Sedriques Dumas
Nursulton Ruziboev made an immediate impact in his UFC debut with a 77 second KO victory and now fights Sedriques Dumas, who lost in his first fight for the promotion but has gone to to win his last two fights.
The 30-year-old Ruziboev may be a new face in the UFC, but he’s had an extensive career on the regional circuit, racking up a whopping 45 fights in total so far. And while you have to bear in mind that level of competition he’s been facing it’s still no mean feat to have claimed 31 finishes from 33 career victories. And a good number of those stoppages were via submission, though he’s by no means a flawless grappler. His kickboxing and wrestling do both appear to be very competent though.
The 28-year-old Dumas made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series and at this stage is gaining more headlines for his run-ins with the police than his performances in the Octagon, including having been arrested on suspicion of battery just last month. That aside Dumas is a good athlete with a long- rangey frame and he’ll utilize that to despatch solid punches and kicks, while he also likes to mix in some wrestling too.
I don’t see a clear area where Dumas has the advantage here, with Ruziboev matching up well both in terms of size and skill-set, and I think he’ll prove to be the better wrestler and grappler here, which will deliver a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev wins by submission in Rd2.
Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson
Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson each head into this featherweight match-up with some momentum after earning back-to-back wins.
Algeo is 34-years-old and is tall 145lb’er with good reach who adopts a high-volume, forward-pressing approach on the feet, leaning on his toughness while continually unloading with combinations of punches, punctuated by a good kicking game. He can also go for some takedowns and likes to take the back and work for the rear-naked choke on the mat, but he can also be taken down himself.
The 32-year-old Nelson is also big for the division and he likes to use that to try to bully opponents with a blend of boxing and wrestling. He does hit hard and can make an impact with his wrestling, but continuing to do so for the full duration of the fight has been a challenge at times and if things aren’t going his way he can begin to falter.
Nelson could have some success with his wrestling here, but I think Algeo is going to make him work at a high pace for the full 15 minutes and get the better of the striking action with his relentless combinations, with the third round being his best as he battles his way to a decision victory.
Pick: Bill Algeo to win by decision.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Rhys McKee
After winning his first two UFC fights Chidi Njokuani has since gone on to lose in his next three Octagon appearances. Now he faces Rhys McKee who came up empty-handed in his first UFC run with back-to-back losses, then racked up four wins in the Cage Warriors promotion before returning to the UFC last year and picking up another defeat.
The 35-year-old Njokuani is dropping down to welterweight for this fight, perhaps put off by having been TKO’d in two of his last three outings at middleweight. However, it’s surprising that the UFC have been on-board with this as history shows he had a terrible time making weight at 170lbs before his UFC run, failing to cut to the limit no less than 7 times, in addition to other catchweight encounters. Assuming he can make weight he will certainly be the bigger man come Saturday night and he’s an explosive muay thai striker with good technique who is just as capable of ending his opponent’s night with a knee or elbow as with a punch or kick.
The 28-year-old McKee is known as ‘Skelator’ and it’s not hard to see why as he’s very lanky with little in the way of muscle mass for a welterweight. Even so he’ll actually still be giving up an inch in height and 2″ in reach to Njokuani here. While his UFC fights haven’t gone his way so far McKee is no pushover though, with all 13 of his wins to date having ended inside the distance, with the majority coming via strikes. He has a good jab and applies a volume approach on the feet from range that has proven to accumulate damage over time, and together with good cardio that presents him with finishing opportunities later on in his fight. He doesn’t have the best striking defense though and can be taken down and outmuscled at times.
Njokuani’s weight cut could have an impact on this fight, potentially playing into McKee’s hands later in the fight if he tires late on, and it could leave him more vulnerable to being finished too. That being said, with McKee not having the size advantage and likely to be outgunned in the early striking exchanges by the heavy-hitting Njokuani, I think we could well see a 2nd round TKO finish here.
Pick: Chidi Njokauni wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Andre Petroski vs. Jacob Malkoun
Jamall Emmers vs. Nate Landwehr
Virna Jandiroba vs. Loopy Godinez
Julio Arce vs. Herbert Burns
Dennis Buzukja vs. Connor Matthews
Viktoriya Dudakova vs. Melissa Gatto
Angel Pacheco vs. Caolan Loughran
Ibo Aslan vs. Anton Turkalj
