UFC 306 aka ‘Riyadh Season: Noche UFC’ takes place tomorrow night, September 14th at the Sphere in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O’Malley heads into the second defense of his bantamweight title on Saturday night carrying a seven-fight winning streak, while Merab Dvalishvili is also riding a wave of momentum thanks to his 10-fight unbeaten streak.
The UFC’s biggest Contender Series success story so far, the 29-year-old O’Malley has come a long way in the seven years since then, fighting his way to the title and becoming one of the sports biggest stars in the process. And rightly so too, as though he certainly captures people’s attention with his unique persona and aesthetic, O’Malley is also an elite striker in the Octagon with slick technique, very good distance management (aided here by a 5″ height and 4″ reach advantage), and he reads his opponents well too. Combined with a sniper-like ability to land fast, accurate and well-timed strikes from range with power that makes him a major finishing threat, but also gives him the capability to just outstrike and outclass his opponents on the feet for the duration of the fight.
O’Malley has generally shown solid takedown defense, but he’s never gone up against some one quite so doggedly determined to get the fight to the mat as the 33-year-old Dvalishvili. ‘The Machine’ is a powerhouse wrestler with seemingly limitless cardio who will use that to endlessly pursue takedown attempts, chaining them together where necessary to get the fight to the mat. Generally Dvalishvili isn’t the best at keeping the fight there though, so he just rinses and repeats the process, which can be very draining and demoralizing for his opponents. That being said, it does mean give strikers more opportunities to land strikes on the feet than most dominating wrestlers, and he is very hittable when closing the distance, leading to some reliance on his impressive durability. And while Dvalishvili is decent offensively on the feet he lacks a finishing threat there, and the same applies on the mat.
So far Dvalishvili’s takedown-heavy style has proven to be a nightmare for strikers, but his willingness to eat shots does present opportunities that a sharpshooter with knockout power like O’Malley could exploit. It’s an intriguing match-up, but one where I’ll go with my gut instinct that Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure and constant takedowns will give ‘Suga’ very little room to operate and gradually wear him down. So it’s quite possible O’Malley may hurt him at some stage, but unless he can get the KO I think ‘The Machine’ would likely survive on wrestling auto-pilot and continue to grind his way to a decision victory.
Pick: Merab Dvalishvili wins by decision.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
In the co-main event we have a trilogy title fight in the women’s flyweight division, with Alexa Grasso having delivered a major upset when she submitted Valentina Shevchenko last year, before defending the belt by a narrow split-draw verdict a few months later.
The 31-year-old Grasso was tipped for big things when she first joined the UFC in 2016, but she things didn’t quite click there and being undersized didn’t help, leading to mixed results. The pieces started to come together after an eventual move up to 125lbs in 2020 though, still retaining her speed and good technical striking, but now being a little more physically strong and impactful, while also being less easy to stifle on the mat, leading to opportunities to show off her solid grapping ability.
Until Grasso’s challenge, the 36-year-old Shevchenko had been ruling the roost at flyweight for several years as a physically strong, high-level kickboxing technician with a patient, calculated approach and surprisingly good wrestling. For much of that time she was dominant, but in the bouts before her first meeting with Grasso she was starting to be a bit less convincing than before. In the two fights with Grasso since we’ve seen that the Mexican appears to have the advantage in terms of speed and mobility, and together with her clean striking that’s given her an edge on the feet.
However, what’s also been apparent is that for the most part Shevchenko has been able to utilize her wrestling effectively. In their first fight that meant that after a poor start, ‘Bullet’ was able to turns things around on the mat and was about to be three rounds up on the scorecards before Grasso capitalized on a mistake and claimed a famous submission win. And in the rematch Shevchenko’s wrestling would have helped her to a narrow win in the rematch if one judge hadn’t curiously awarded Grasso a 10-8 in the final round leading to a split-draw verdict.
In the end I do think Shevchenko’s age and miles on the clock after 21-years of fighting is starting to take a toll, which is only accentuated by Grasso being in her prime and naturally quick on the feet. But I also think Shevchenko’s wrestling continues to be the way to counter that, and I’m not sure Grasso can find a away to prevent that from being a major factor in the fight. So I’m cautiously taking Shevchenko to lean heavily on her wrestling advantage to finally win this fight at the third time of trying by decision.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko wins by decision.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Originally planned to go down at UFC 303, Brian Ortega struggling with his weight cut and then calling off ill on fight night led to his fight with Diego Lopes now ending up on this card instead several months later.
That original meeting had been rustled up on just a couple of weeks notice, so Ortega has a valid excuse for his pre-fight struggles, but it does add to a turbulent spell in the 33-year-old’s life during much of the prime years of his career due to injuries, ailments and other setbacks. It’s not all been bad news though. After a beatdown against Max Holloway in 2018 he had a two year layoff only to return with significantly improved striking that meant he was no longer relying on just his natural power and durability, while last time out he got the better of a leading contender in Yair Rodriguez after very long layoff. And it’s no surprise he won that fight by submission as that still remains the most lethal aspect of his game, being a very high level BJJ player who thrives on the mat.
The 29-year-old Lopes lost his UFC debut in May of last year, but still managed to mark himself out as one to watch by giving the undefeated Movsar Evloev a torrid time with his pressure and submission threat, despite having coming in as an ultra-short-notice replacement. Lopes then showed that was just a taste of things to come by going on to put together a four-fight winning streak, including finishing Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff within a single round combined via strikes. As that resume suggests, Lopes is a well-rounded fighter who is a threat wherever the fight goes and has an impressive finishing rate, while he’s also mentally strong and never overawed by either the occasion or his opposition.
I continue to be impressed by Lopes in many regards, but when breaking down this fight I keep coming back to the fact that while he’s good to very-good in several areas, Ortega is special when it comes to the grappling department. And so while I think Lopes may have success on the feet early in this fight with his 3″ height and reach advantage, high-energy tempo and good striking accuracy, ‘T-City’s’ durability will keep him in the fight, and the two fighters willingness to battle it out on the mat too will be where he takes over and proves to be the more ruthlessly effective finisher via submission.
Pick: Brian Ortega wins by submission in Rd2.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
Daniel Zellhuber comes into this fight having won his last three UFC fights in a row, taking his career record to 15-1, while Esteban Ribovics has claimed back-to-back victories to go 13-1 overall.
At 6ft 1″ tall the 25-year-old Zellhuber is a large lightweight who will be 3″ taller than Ribovics in addition to having a vast 8″ reach advantage. And that’s an important aspect of his game as he’ll operate from range behind solid boxing fundamentals, making good use of the jab and being sure to the target the body as well as the head. His kicking game is nice too, but on the downside, despite his distance-work he can still be more hittable than you’d like to see at times, not helped by an occasional willingness to throw down at close range. Back to the positives though, and Zellhuber is able to operate in the clinch, and is comfortable seeking out ground-and-pound and submission opportunities on the mat.
The 28-year-old Ribocvics is a purposeful striker with power in his hands and he’s not afraid to eat strikes to land his own. He also showed off his kicking threat in his last fight with Terence McKinney when he felled him with a head kick for a 37 second KO finish. In the early days of his career it was actually his submissions that were his most common route to victory though, and back then he showed off a particular penchant for winning via kimura.
This is a big event for Mexico and Zellhuber will be eager to impress, but he’d be wise not to engage in a brawl that could see him punished by Ribovics considerable punching power. From range though I think this is a fight Zellhuber can manage though with his size and technique advantage, so I’ll take him to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Daniel Zellhuber wins by decision.
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Ronaldo Rodriguez won in his UFC debut by submission earlier in the year and now goes up against Ode Osbourne, who has gone winless in his last two Octagon appearances.
The 25-year-old Rodriguez hails from Mexico and has a 16-2 career record to date. He is a physically strong, well-rounded fighter who isn’t the quickest or highest-volume striker, but has a good gas tank, likes to press the action and can be effective on the counter.. Meanwhile he’s active in the grappling department too and has a number of wins via chokes.
The lanky Osbourne may only stand 1″ taller than Rodriguez, but he actually has an 8″ reach advantage. The 32-year-old has good moments of offense thanks to a mixture of that reach, his athleticism and ability to put together strikes together with speed and power. And he can wrestle too and is a capable grappler. However, Osbourne has struggled with finding consistency over the years and can be a bit erratic and careless with his approach, which along with some defensive lapses has led to him being KO’d twice in the UFC as well as being submitted in his last two fights.
Osbourne can always be a threat, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to be able to shore up his flaws and poor decision-making to become a more consistent fighter, so I’m going with the still improving Rodriguez to get the better of him here via submission in the second round.
Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins by submission in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng
