UFC 324 Predictions

UFC 324 Predictions

The UFC’s 2026 schedule gets off and running this weekend with UFC 324 and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett

Former interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje will be looking reclaim that status when he fights Paddy Pimblett, who has rose to stardom during his perfect 7-0 run in the UFC so far.

Pimblett was always tipped as a potential star for the UFC even during his Cage Warriors days. However, given that he’d picked up a couple of losses along the way in that promotion, and was also rocked a few times in his first few Octagon appearances, he’s done well to exceed expectations by remaining unbeaten in the UFC’s Octagon and now getting to fight for a title. Along the way he’s shown his toughness and ability to battle through adversity, as well as having finishing power on the feet to compliment his dangerous submission game. In all fairness the 31-year-old’s level of opposition has been on the weak side for a title contender though, given that his biggest wins coming against past-their-best veterans in Tony Ferguson, King Green, and Michael Chandler. Even so, it’s been evident in recent fights that he’s tightened up his striking defense and sharpened his striking technique, though it’s unclear whether his tendency to brawl more recklessly will resurface when things aren’t going his way.

The 37-year-old Gaethje enters into this fight amid talk that he may retire if he loses. Given the many wars he’s been in throughout his career and willingness to eat punches to land his own that’s certainly understandable. To be fair, his chin has held out surprisingly well, although his last second KO loss to Max Holloway in 2024 was a concern. Still, as things stand he remains one of the top 155lb’ers and so is a worthy interim title contender. Gaethje’s not as reckless as he once was, but he remains a punishing striker with big power in his hands, vicious kicks, and a fearsome knack for finishing fights. However, Gaethje is less convincing on the mat, and with two of his last three losses coming via submission that could be an exploitable weakness for his opponent in this match-up.

This match-up certainly has the potential to swing either direction. In a pure stand-up battle I do feel that Gaethje’s power and vast striking experience gives him the edge. However, Pimblett’s a threat on the feet too, and his grappling advantage feels like the clearest path to victory here, whether he pursues takedowns from the start, or adjusts mid-fight depending on how things go on the feet. As such I’ll take Pimblett to sink in a second round submission finish here.

Pick: Paddy PImblett wins by submission in Rd2.

Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong

Sean O’Malley enters this fight after two defeats to Merab Dvalishvili, but with his rival having since lost the bantamweight title he now enters into his next fight with the title back in his sights. However, standing in his way is Song Yadong, who has his own aspirations to fight for the belt after winning three of his last four fights.

Despite his losses to Dvalishvili, the 31-year-old O’Malley remains one of the bantamweight division’s best fighters. He’s a naturally talented striker whose blend of speed, excellent timing, and sniper-like accuracy has proven to be very potent. He’s finished 6 of his 10 UFC wins via strikes, but he’s also been able to maintain a high-volume approach to win big fights on the scorecards too, besting the likes of Petr Yan and Marlon Vera over five rounds. And while Dvalishvili was able to find repeated success with his wrestling, O’Malley’s takedown defense and get-ups have proven to be solid enough against other opponents.

Yadong entered the UFC at a relatively young age and has put together a very respectable 11-3-1 record in the eight years since. He comes into this fight with confidence after beating Henry Cejudo last time out, adding to previous notable victories over the likes of Marlon Vera, Ricky Simon and Marlon Moraes. Yadong has very good athleticism, as well as clean boxing, genuine power, and reliable cardio. He mixes in kicks nicely too, and while he is primarily a striker he is comfortable mixing in the occasional takedown and can also work back to his feet if taken down himself.

Two talented fighters here then, but overall I do feel that O’Malley innate sense of distance, timing and shot selection will give him the edge here to earn a decision victory.

Pick: Sean O’Malley wins by decision.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis

Waldo Cortes‑Acosta has racked up a 7-1 run in his last eight UFC appearances and now squares up to Derrick Lewis, who’s coming in off two straight TKO wins.

The 34-year-old Cortes‑Acosta is a former baseball player, who made the jump to MMA 10-years-ago. He doesn’t have the broadest skill-set, but he has been able to deliver good results by focusing on the fundamentals, making use of his solid jab, good footwork, reliable cardio and durability to get the better of several opponents on the scorecards. That being said, in the latter stages of a very active 2025 campaign he started to sit down on his power shots more, and that’s paid off as he’s coming in off back-to-back first round KO’s.

Cortes-Acosta has a long to go to catch up on Lewis’ knockout record though, as he’s the current leader in UFC history with 16 stoppage wins via strikes. A fortnight away from his 41st birthday, Lewis still carries a constant threat thanks to his punching power, and he is still able to cover the ground faster than you’d expect for his size to land a killer blow. Still, in recent years he has been getting stopped more often than in the past as his durability starts to wilt, and his cardio concerns only become more accentuated too as he gets older.

Lewis is always a threat, but Cortes-Acosta has now shown he has the power to be dangerous too. However, it’s Cortes-Acosta’s ability to also adopt a more patient, methodical approach behind the jab over three rounds that makes me think he’ll be able to outpoint ‘The Black Beast’ on the scorecards.

Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins by decision.

Natália Silva vs. Rose Namajunas

Natalia Silva is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC so far and now meets former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, who has gone 3–2 since moving to flyweight.

Silva’s credibility was enhanced further by a unanimous decision win over Alexa Grasso last May to secure the No.2 spot on the 125lb ladder. Silva is fast and active on the feet, with her kicking game being particularly effective, and even having led to both head kick and spinning back kick finishes during her time in the Octagon. That being said, she’s not typically a finishing machine, with the majority of her UFC wins coming via decision so far. That being said, she has shown off her grappling ability earlier in her career with a six-fight submission win streak prior to joining the UFC and backs that up with decent wrestling ability.

Namajunas’ past accomplishments speak for themselves as at her best during two separate stints as strawweight champion her high-level striking and grappling, together with calculated game-planning, enabled her to twice get the better of other elite opponents like Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The 33-year-old has been less convincing since moving up to flyweight in 2023 though. She’s still technically sound, but her performances have lacked some of the spark we saw from her in the past, appearing to be more reserved and less determined in her approach at times, while also not being much of a physical presence in the weight class.

Namajunas is very skilled, but sometimes it’s as much of a mental battle as a physical one for her, and at this stage in her career it feels like she’s struggling to connect the dots and fight to her full potential. Meanwhile, Silva has talent too and there’s no doubt about her hunger and determination to succeed. As such, I think Silva can push the pace here and be a bit more impactful with her striking to win by decision.

Pick: Natalia Silva wins by decision.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

Arnold Allen returns from an 18‑month layoff to face Jean Silva, who surged to a five‑fight winning streak over the past couple of years before being stopped by Diego Lopes last September.

It’s only a few years ago that Allen was on a 10‑fight winning run at featherweight, but defeats to other leading talents in Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev blocked his path to title contention. He did then beat Giga Chikadze, but a shoulder injury has since sidelined him. Allen is a well-versed technical striker who operates well from range with a disciplined approach, picking his shots nicely while utilizing good footwork and cutting angles well. He’s generally not a big finisher, but he does have an underrated wrestling game and is well conditioned.

Silva has been one of the most entertaining fighters to watch in recent times. He’s a very talented striker who appears to thrive in the heat of the battle. He’s very fast, and his big power, but his best asset may be his ability to read his opponents and react accordingly, enabling him to steer just clear of big strikes or pick his moment to unleash a fight-ending blitz. That’s led to 12 wins via strikes from 16 career victories, and he also has three submission wins on his record too. Silva can be a bit overconfident and overzealous at times though, leading him to take risks, and Lopes punished him for that last time out by handing him his first ever TKO loss.

Allen has the tools to stay composed and pick his spots, but Silva’s speed, pressure, and ability to create big moments may be the difference that gets him the nod on the judges scorecards.

Pick: Jean Silva wins by decision.

Prelims

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson
Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez
Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman
Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller

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About Ross Cole

Ross launched MMA Insight (previously FightOfTheNight.com) in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts. He's since penned countless news stories and live fight reports along with dozens of feature articles as the lead writer for the site, reaching millions of fans in the process.

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