UFC 317 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria vacated his featherweight title while still undefeated earlier this year in order to pursue his ambition to become lightweight champion, and he’ll get the chance to make that a reality on Saturday night when he fights for the vacant 155lb belt against former champ Charles Oliveira, who beat Michael Chandler by unanimous decision late last year.
The 28-year-old Topuria rapidly became a dominant force at 145lbs after joining the UFC in 2020, proving to be a master of his craft with the self-confidence that comes from knowing that he’s a major threat wherever the fight goes. Topuria is an impressive operator on the feet, not just in terms of his high-level boxing technique, speed and movement, but also his fight IQ, which enable him to calmly read his opponents and then use that to time his strikes and angles of attack with clinical precision. No less than five KO wins being registered in eight UFC fights makes it’s clear that punching power also has a big part to play , but it does feel like it’s a fusion of all the aforementioned qualities, together with having the killer instinct when he has opponents hurt, that makes him so potent, even against all-time featherweight greats like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. It’s interesting to not though that prior to arriving in the UFC, while Topuria was still running through his foes, he was actually doing so courtesy of his also refined grappling game, with his first six career victories all coming via 1st round submission. Add on to that a very solid wrestling game too and you have a formidable fighter. That being said, it’s worth noting that Topuria’s only prior fight up at 155lbs on short-notice against Jai Herbert in early 2022 didn’t go all his own way as he initially found it difficult to deal with his significantly bigger opponent’s long reach, and was even dropped by a head kick. However, he did recover and then put him to the sword by KO, but it adds an element of risk to his move up to lightweight, and Oliveira will hold a 3″ height and 5″ reach advantage over him on Saturday night.
Speaking of Oliveira, the 35-year-old former champion has proven to be an elite finisher during his long run in the Octagon, and he has many accolades to prove it, including holding the current record for most finishes in UFC history (20). Oliveira has proven to be particularly deadly on the mat as his high-level BJJ ability and natural creative flair enables him to chain together submission attempts in the heat of the moment, while also thriving in scrambling situations too, resulting in another UFC record for the most submission finishes ever (16). On top of that, over the years Oliveira’s striking has also become a real threat too, with solid muay thai fundamentals again being bolstered by his natural creativity to blend in more diverse, dynamic attacks, while showcasing better power than you might expect. There are vulnerabilities in Oliveira’s game though as his desire to finish fights can leave him exposed defensively, both on the feet and on the mat, and particularly earlier in his UFC run he did suffer a few defeats by both strikes and submission. It’s a credit to Oliveira that over the years he actually seemed to become better at fighting through tough situations, even going on an 11-fight unbeaten stretch on his way to winning the title, but he was no stranger to getting rocked during that time, and there is a price to pay for that in the long run.
This should be a great fight between two terrific talents. Oliveira is a dangerous fight for anyone, and his size advantage here adds an extra level of difficulty for Topuria here. Even so, it’s a testament to how good the former 145lb champ is that I still feel he will emerge victorious here. Topuria won’t fear going to the mat with Oliveira, but it’s on the feet where he should make his mark here as he’s certainly the harder-hitter, but is also the more clinical, calculated technician too, which should enable him to time his moments to penetrate the Brazilian’s stars defense, leading to a second round knockout finish.
Pick: Ilia Topuria wins by KO in Rd2.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja has successfully defended the flyweight title three times during his current seven-fight winning streak and now goes up against Kai Kara-France, who TKO’d Steve Erceg in the 1st round last year.
This isn’t the first time these two have fought as they also went head-to-head in the quarter-finals of TUF 24 back in 2016, with Pantoja winning by unanimous decision on that occasion. And Pantoja has built something of a reputation for winning rematches as he’s already beaten No.1 contender Brandon Moreno three times and No.2 contender Brandon Royval twice over the years. The 35-year-old Pantoja’s success stems from being both a very well-rounded fighter, and also a very tough one too. On the feet he’s not the most slick technically, but he does well pushing the pace, applying pressure and picking his moments to trade in the pocket with aggressive boxing flurries. And he benefits from having a strong chin in those situations, having never been finished in his long 18-year career. Crucially, Pantoja also transitions smoothly from striking to wrestling, which brings a very assured grappling game into play, and he does a good job of taking the back and working for his tried-and-tested rear-naked choke submission. Pantoja’s high-intensity approach can seem to take a toll on his cardio at times, but while he can look tired, he has a knack for fighting through that, as proven by three of his title wins coming via five-round decisions.
The 32-year-old Kara-France is a speedy striker with crisp, accurate boxing and solid kicks who carries notable finishing power in his fists for a flyweight. Kara-France’s takedown defense also appears to be improving with age, and while he’s occasionally lost by submission, for the most part he’s been able to keep himself out of harms way and get back upright. While Kara-France beat former title contender Steve Erceg last time out, it’s worth noting that he’d gone through a rough period before that, losing by TKO to Brandon Moreno in an interim title fight before going on to lose by split-decision to Amir Albazi. More worryingly though, Kara-France then suffered a bad concussion in training that forced him to sit out of action for a full year. That led to concerns about his durability going forward, and while the quick win over Erceg upon his return was a confidence-booster, there may still be some lingering doubts about that. Kara-France has shown before that he can bounce back from adversity though as he was KO’d twice in back-to-back fights at the start of his career, only to then rack up over 30 fights without being finished by strikes.
As solid as Pantoja’s chin has proven to be over the years, there’s no doubt that Kara-France’s speed and power presents a real risk to his title reign here. Pantoja’s striking style means he will take shots along the way here, but I think his ability to quickly transition to his clear advantages in the wrestling and grappling departments to gain control of the fight on the mat will prove successful, leading to second round submission finish.
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Rd2.
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Brandon Royval came up empty-handed in a flyweight title challenge in 2023, but has since compiled two split-decision wins as he plots another route back to title contention. He was originally supposed to fight Manel Kape here, but that fell through and so he’s now facing Joshua Van, who accepted this fight on a few weeks notice as he looks to build on his current four-fight winning streak.
The 32-year-old Royval has been trying to tone down his aggressive instincts a bit lately, but at heart he’s still a fighter who thrives on fighting at a high-tempo with an versatile and unpredictable high-volume striking style that keeps his opponents on their toes from start to finish. Despite that, he’s actually more of a finishing threat on the mat, where he’s also very active offensively and loves to scramble to create opportunities, leading to nine of his 17 career wins coming via submission. Despite being overly focused on offense at times, Royval has still only ever been finished once by strikes and once by submission, but has had a mixed 5-4 record when going to the scorecards.
Van has already built a strong resume at just 23-years-old, with a 7-1 run so far in the UFC taking his overall career record to 14-2. The evidence so far suggests he’s a fighter with a high skill ceiling, and he’s already a talented, athletic striker who gradually builds up an intense head of steam over the course of his fights. His boxing technique is already a real asset and he works very well to the head and body with sharp, accurate punches, and he will look to work in kicks and effective knee strikes too. It also bodes well for the future that he appears to have taken fairly naturally to wrestling, and his takedown defense is on-point too. He’s also building out his grappling game too and has shown strong cardio so far.
Both of these fighters are capable of fighting at a furious pace, so it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top. Royval tends to be the faster starter and Van can be too hittable at times, so that could get the more experience fighter off to a good start. Van is more clinical with his output though and does well to increase his intensity as the rounds go on, and so I think that could lead to him coming on strong enough to edge out a decision victory here.
Pick: Joshua Van wins by decision.
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Beneil Dariush suffered two tough losses via strikes in 2023 and subsequently opted to take a full year out. He was then set to return to action against Renato Moicano at the start of this year, but those plans were upended when Moicano was instead called up to fight Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title on a days notice, losing by submission. Now the original fight has been rebooked and so our prediction here remains largely the same as it was before.
Dariush’s year-out seemed like a wise choice as in addition to his 1st round TKO and KO defeats in 2023 the word from his camp was that he’d also suffered similar issues in training that same year. It’s actually not the first time that chin-issues has been a problem for him as back in 2017-2018 he had two KO losses that led to question-marks about his durability. To his credit though, on that occasion he actually bounced back brilliantly, going on an eight-fight winning streak that put him on the verge of title contention. The now 35-year-old Dariush has always been best known for his high-level grappling ability, showing a great balance of composure, technique and strength. He also has solid wrestling ability too and is good at controlling opponents. And chin-issues aside, Dariush also has developed a respectable striking game that’s enhanced by having demonstrated notable knockout power, which makes opponents more wary about engaging with him.
Moicano is the same age as Dariush, but he’s enjoying a different career trajectory, as prior to the short-notice fight with Makhachev he was in the midst of his best ever run, reaching the Top 10 rankings after wins over Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jolin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis. Current form aside, Moicano has a number of similarities to Dariush, as he’s also a skilled grappler who has developed a capable striking game to go along with it. And it’s important to note that ‘Money’ is no stranger to durability concerns himself, as between 2019 and 2020 he was stopped three times via strikes. He’s managed to put that behind him since and these days has become a more aggressive finisher himself, finishing a string of fights, with submissions being his best weapon, but also having ruthless ground-and-pound too and respectable striking technique on the feet.
While there’s more fire and personality to Moicano’s game, I feel that Dariush is the heavier hitter of the two here, and he also may well be the more fundamentally sound technician on the mat too. So while it feels like a risky pick that may well backfire if Dariush’s chin is as compromised as it seems, Moicano doesn’t have the most reliable chin either and so I’m going to take Dariush to be the one that ends the fight by TKO mid-way through the fight.
Pick: Beneil Dariush wins by TKO in Rd2.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Payton Talbott hit the ground running with three wins in the UFC, but then suffered a decision loss to Raoni Barcelos at the start of the year. Now he hopes to get back in the win column when he goes up against Felipe Lima, who has gone 2-0 in the UFC so far.
There have been high hopes for the 26-year-old Talbott since he first arrived from the Contender Series in 2023 as the tall, lanky bantamweight quickly proved to be a force to be reckoned with in the striking department with his incredibly high-volume, relentless and versatile, yet still surprisingly accurate and impactful striking having overwhelmed some of his early opponents. That took him to 9-0, with eight of his wins coming inside the distance, but it was a style that had notable flaws as while he didn’t seem to mind, he was proving to be quite hittable, while his forward-pressing style also opened him up to takedown attempts. And wily veteran Raoni Barcelos was able to exploit that last time out, securing takedowns and also having some success on the feet on his way to a dominant decision win. It may have been too much too soon for Talbott, but it could also prove to be a valuable learning experience if he’s able to make the necessary adjustments from here.
The 27-year-old Lima hasn’t had the same fanfare as Talbott so far, but aside from losing his first ever MMA fight, he’s since gone unbeaten for almost a decade and compiled a 14-1 record in the process. Lima is a good all-rounder who is fast and athletic on the feet and has well-versed technique, albeit without being the heaviest hitter around. ‘Junge Boy’ also wrestles well and has assured grappling ability, as proven when he submitted Muhammadjon Naimov in his UFC debut last year.
There’s definitely a lot to like about Talbott’s striking ability and he’s fun to watch, but it might not be easy to fully shore up his takedown defense if he continues to stick to such an offensively-minded approach. As such, if he hasn’t made changes then I could see Lima having success implementing a similar gameplan as Barcelos, using takedowns and mat work to shut down his striking threat and emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Felipe Lima wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Hyder Amil vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Viviane Araújo vs. Tracy Cortez
Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey
Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith
