UFC 323 takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Merab Dvalishvili defeated Petr Yan by unanimous decision back in March of 2023, before going on to capture the bantamweight crown. Now, the reigning champion prepares for their rematch as he aims to secure his fourth straight title defense.

Dvalishvili has been nothing short of dominant at 135 pounds, riding a 14-fight winning streak that has already seen him beat nearly every top contender, leading to him now starting to go up against them for a second time. After dethroning Sean O’Malley last year, he has already bested him again, and now turns his attention back to Yan. In their first meeting, Merab’s relentless pace and pressure while repeatedly seeking out takedown attempts managed to neutralize Yan’s striking. Since then he has added five more victories to his resume, proving that his tried-and-true game plan remains highly effective. At 34, ‘The Machine’ shows no signs of slowing down, with his trademark cardio and durability still allowing him to push a furious pace for all five rounds.

Yan went into his first fight with Dvalishvili in the unusual position of having lost three of his previous four fights, albeit narrowly against strong opposition in Aljamain Sterling (once via DQ and then a split-decision) and Sean O’Malley (split-decision). His defeat to Dvalishvili however, was far more one-sided, though Yan has since claimed a hand injury had hampered his training. Whether that did actually make any difference or not, the 32-year-old has since rebounded impressively, stringing together three consecutive wins to earn another shot at the belt. Yan continues to be a talented, well-rounded fighter, whose crisp boxing certainly makes him the superior striker in this match-up. His accuracy and combination work could exploit openings when Merab charges forward, but the champion’s constant desire to work for takedowns leaves little room for Yan to establish his rhythm. Yan’s wrestling and takedown defense has generally been proven to be very solid, but it wasn’t enough in their last fight. He’ll look to make adjustements this time around, but that’s a tall order given how many high-level grapplers have struggled against the champion.

Yan deserves another shot at the title, but Dvalishvili’s tried-and-tested gameplan still feels most likely to succeed here, leading to a historic fourth successful title defense in the space of a year via another decision victory.

Pick: Merab Dvalishvili wins by decision.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja will look to secure his fifth consecutive title defense when he meets rising contender Joshua Van, who has put together an impressive five-fight winning streak in under a year.

Pantoja has a tight grip on the title after victories over Brandon Moreno (three times), Brandon Royval, Kai Kara-France (twice), as well as other top names like Kai Asakura, Steve Erceg, and Manel Kape. At 35, he may not be the most technically polished striker, but he’s a battle-tested warrior who thrives in the heat of the moment. His aggressive boxing combinations, granite chin, and constant desire to engage wears opponents down, while his well-timed takedowns open the door to a strong grappling game. Once on the mat, Pantoja is a constant threat to take the back and lock in his signature rear-naked choke and has 12 submission wins to his name. And while his high pace can appear to be taking a toll on him at times, he has a knack for pushing through, finding his second win and finding ways to win, while having also never been finished in his career.

At 24-years-old, Van represents a fresh challenge for the champion. In only two-and-a-half years, Van has already compiled an 8-1 UFC record, showcasing his athleticism, speed, and steady technical improvement with each outing. His boxing is crisp, his volume builds as fights progress, and he’s able to maintain his accuracy even while fighting at a high pace. Meanwhile his wrestling is developing, but his ground game isn’t yet on par with his striking, meaning he’ll rely heavily on his takedown defense here to try to keep the fight standing.

Van is a compelling contender giving that he’s a talented striker who is a decade younger than the champion and is riding a wave of momentum. However, Pantoja is a tough nut to crack, and I expect his years of high-level experience and superior ground game to be the difference here on his way to a 2nd round submission win.

Pick: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Rd2.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

Ex-flyweight champ Brandon Moreno enters this bout following back-to-back wins, while Tatsuro Taira has built a solid 7-1 record inside the Octagon to date.

At 31, Moreno finds himself in a tricky position, having already failed to beat current champion Alexandre Pantoja on three occasions. Still, he remains determined to earn another title shot by continuing to beat every other contender standing in his way. And his recent victories over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg have served a reminder that he is still a leading contender in the division, with his durability, work rate, and well-rounded skills making him hard to beat. Moreno is a pressure-heavy boxer who uses the jab well, can operate well in the pocket, is a capable counter-striker and carries respectable power. He’ll also look to blend in solid takedowns and has an effective grappling game too, with 11 submission wins across 23 career fights. And while he’s lost 8 times over the years, he’s still never been finished inside the distance.

Taira was a Shooto champion prior to joining the UFC, and after eight fights in the Octagon is now 17-1 overall, which still only being 25 years old. He’s a composed, technical striker from range, showcasing good athleticism and accuracy, though he often prefers to pick his shots, and so isn’t much of a volume striker. On the mat, he’s proven to be a threat as well with respectable takedowns, good scrambling ability and proven finishing ability, with eight submission victories in his career, including three during his UFC run.

This feels like a fight that could go either way. Taira is less battle-worn and is still evolving as he heads into his prime years, but I think Moreno’s pressure and ability to force Taira into a close quarters striking battle suits him better, while he also has the better wrestling control too, leading him to a win on the scorecards.

Pick: Brandon Moreno wins by decision.

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

Henry Cejudo is set to step into the Octagon one final time before retiring on Saturday night, where he’ll be facing highly regarded bantamweight prospect Payton Talbott, who has gone 4-1 in the promotion.

Cejudo was a two-division champion when he retired in 2020, only to then change his mind and return three years later. It hasn’t been the fairytale return he’d hoped for since then though, with the 38-year-old losing three straight fights against Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Song Yadong. Cejudo might be past his best, but he’s still able to be competitive thanks to his wealth of experience, smart fight IQ, and background as a former Olympic gold medalist in 2008. Though no longer as quick as in his prime, the short, stocky Cejudo retains respectable speed and power, enabling him to close the distance with solid punches, while he’ll also mix in low kicks. His wrestling clearly also remains an asset that opponents have to be wary of, though as though his cardio perhaps isn’t as good any more he still has varied takedowns and good control on top. Despite his experience though it’s notable that Cejudo has never won by submission in his career.

Talbott has been one of the most hyped Contender Series recruits in recent years and has acquitted himself well in the Octagon so far. A tall, rangy bantamweight, The 27-year-old will enjoy a significant 6-inch height and 6.5-inch reach advantage over Cejudo. Talbott fights at a blistering pace, throwing high-volume combinations with purpose, managing to maintain his accuracy and variety with his boxing combinations, kicks, and occasional spinning attacks. While not a one-punch knockout artist, his relentless output has frequently overwhelmed opponents, with seven of his ten wins coming via strikes. His lone UFC loss came against Raoni Barcelos, who exposed gaps in his ground game, but Talbott has since rebounded and shown improved takedown defense.

If Cejudo goes all-in on a wrestling-based strategy here then that could certainly pose Talbott problems. The former double-champ does like to strike these days though, and I think that will prove problematic as Talbott’s size, speed, volume and pace will soon take a toll as the fight progresses and wear on his cardio reserves. Cejudo is durable enough to make it the full three rounds, but I think Talbott comes away with the victory.

Pick: Payton Talbott wins by decision.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz enters this fight after suffering two losses, while Bogdan Guskov rides the momentum of a four-fight winning run in the promotion.

At 42, Blachowicz’s career is clearly nearing it’s end, not helped by having lost nearly two years to shoulder surgeries not so long ago. Despite his advanced years, Blachowicz remains competitive at 205lbs, having gone the distance with quality opponents in Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg. His recent outings have been more tentative and less eventful, but Blachowicz is still a technically sound striker with crisp boxing, heavy kicks, and a chin that’s aged well. Blachowicz has also proved to be a solid wrestler over the years and does present a submission threat too.

The 33-year-old Guskov stumbled in his UFC debut with a first-round submission loss to Volkan Oezdemir back in 2023, but has since rebounded impressively with four consecutive finishes, including two first-round knockouts. His striking is quite straight-forward with little in the way of creative flair, but it’s nonetheless proven to be effective, powered by heavy hands that have produced 15 knockout victories from 18 career wins. He’s also shown finishing ability via submissions, though his defensive grappling remains a clear weakness.

Technically, Blachowicz is the sharper striker and his reach advantage should help him in his attempts to control the distance. He’s also the more capable grappler if he chooses to take the fight to the mat. Age is a concern, but his chin still holds up, and that should allow him to weather Guskov’s early aggression and then win the technical battle later in the fight to win by decision.

Pick: Jan Blachowicz wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Farès Ziam

Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
Iwo Baraniewski vs. İbo Aslan
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trócoli
Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos