UFC 331 takes place tomorrow night in Los Angeles and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
The main event features a flyweight title rematch after Alexandre Pantoja lost the belt to Joshua Van last December due to a freak arm injury just 26 seconds into their fight.
While Pantoja recovered from that injury, the 24‑year‑old Van went on to defend the title in May, stopping Tatsuro Taira by TKO in the fifth round. The 24-year-old Van was taken down often in that fight, but consistently worked back up and made the most of his striking opportunities, including dropping Taira in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, before finishing him in the 5th. Van is a talented, athletic striker with fast, accurate technical boxing and quick footwork too. He’s always had good conditioning and has been able to ramp up the pace and intensity of his striking over three rounds to overwhelm opponents, but it’s impressive that his latest victory showed he can sustain that over five rounds too. Given his age he still has room for development too, and he would certainly benefit from further work to bolster his takedown defense and indeed his striking defense too.
The 36-year-old Pantoja had cemented his place at the top of the division prior to his injury after going on an eight fight winning streak that included four title defences. He’s not as technically polished a striker as Van, but he’s a gritty pressure fighter with aggressive high-volume boxing mixed in with kicks, and has elite durability, having never been finished by strikes despite consistently fighting high-level opposition. His transitions from striking to takedowns are an important aspect of his game, while his grappling is tried-and-tested, having strong control, reliable back takes and 12 submission wins to his name, while he’s never submitted. Pantoja’s high pace can leave him breathing heavy at times, yet he seems to have an ability to fight through that, even over five rounds.
Stylistically it’s a great matchup, and Van’s performance against Taira makes the rematch harder to call. Van seemse well equipped to deal with Pantoja’s pace and pressure, and being able to work back to his feet when taken down will be important here. If Pantoja wins, I think it’ll be down to controlling Van on the mat better than Taira did and potentially finding a submission, but if he isn’t able to then I think Van’s speed and technique in the striking department over five rounds will give him the edge to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Joshua Van wins by decision.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Maurício Ruffy
Arman Tsarukyan has won his last five fights and now takes on a five-round co-main event against Mauricio Ruffy, who has won both his fights this year by TKO.
The 29-year-old Tsarukyan has only been competing once a year in the UFC lately, but he’s made those appearances count with wins over Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Outside the Octagon he’s stayed extremely active though, going 7–1 in RAF submission wrestling and 6‑0‑1 in various grappling tournaments, defeating a lengthy list of well known fighters along the way, including Tony Ferguson, Urijah Faber, Muhammad Mokaev, Benson Henderson and Patricky Pitbull. That reinforces how complete Tsarukyan’s game is as in addition to having that high-level wrestling and grappling ability, in MMA he’s also proven to have fast technical striking, strong footwork, and excellent conditioning. Admittedly he’s not the biggest lightweight at 5’7″, and isn’t the hardest hitter, but he’s strong and athletic for his frame and leaves few weaknesses for his opponents to exploit.
The 30-year-old Ruffy has established himself as one of the lightweight division’s most dangerous strikers, winning 13 of his 14 wins to date inside the distance. He’’ll hold a 4″ height and 3″ reach advantage here and has a dynamic and hard-hitting style, while still managing to remain composed, doing a good job of blending his speed, accuracy and creativity. That extends to eye-catching techniques that aren’t just for show, including his recent spinning wheel‑kick finishes of Bobby Green and Michael Chandler. His main weakness, however, was exposed last year when Benoit Saint Denis took him out of his comfort zone by dominating him on the mat and then submitting him in the second round. Ruffy has since switched up his training camp and has been working with Alexander Volkanovski, which may help tighten his takedown defence, among other things.
Ruffy’s size, dynamism and power will make him a real threat on the feet here, but I feel his vulnerability on the mat is still the defining factor given how good Tsarukyan is there, and I think that leads to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan wins by submission in Rd2.
Patrício Pitbull vs. Choi Doo-ho
Patricio Pitbull has only managed a 1-2 run in the UFC so far since arriving from Bellator and now goes up against Doo-ho Choi, who is on a three-fight winning streak.
Pitbull was previously one of Bellator’s biggest stars, having been a two-division champion with nine successful title defences in total. He arrived in the UFC late in his career after having already amassed over 40 fights, so the reality is that the 38-year-old isn’t operating at the level he once was. Still, he does have a very well-rounded skill-set that these days tends to revolve around measured counter‑striking with good punching power and heavy low kicks. He can switch smoothly to his wrestling transitions and is a well-versed grappler too with 12 submission wins to his name. His volume and speed have noticeably dipped though, and he’s getting hurt more often too, though he’s still only ever been finished twice by strikes and once by submission.
Choi’s career looked like it had stalled when he suffered three straight losses by 2019 and then had to take several years out due to military service and injury woes. However, he’s returned revitalised over the past two‑and‑a‑half years, delvering three decisive TKO victories . At 35-years-old, he’s still fast and athletic, and will have a 4″ height and 3″ reach advantage here. His boxing‑centric offense remains potent, having served up 14 finishes from 17 career wins, but he’s also shown improved mat work too lately. His aggressive pursuit of finishes still leaves defensive gaps though.
If this was prime Pitbull then he’d be the pick here. However, these days I think the more energetic Choi’s higher output and harder hitting strikes will gradually wear down the veteran for a late TKO stoppage.
Pick: Doo Ho-Choi wins by TKO in Rd3.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Alonzo Menifield earned a first‑round TKO over Zhang Mingyang last time out, while the undefeated Iwo Baraniewski has claimed three rapid first‑round finishes in his UFC run so far.
Menifield, 38, is a stocky, powerfully built athlete who uses his physicality to apply steady pressure with heavy punches and kicks, while he’s also able to grind from the clinch and deliver punishing ground‑and‑pound on the mat. His recent form with three wins in his last four is solid, but perhaps doesn’t tell the full story as he’s actually been KO’d three times in the past two-and-a-half years, including a 12‑second loss to Carlos Ulberg and an 87‑second defeat to Volkan Oezdemir, suggesting his once‑reliable chin has become a liability.
The 27-year-old Baraniewski has finished all nine of his fights inside the first round, including sub‑90‑second TKOs in each of his UFC bouts to date. The caveat is that he’s faced a relatively low level of competition so far, so this is a notable step-up. Baraniewski has a background in judo and submission‑grappling, but he’s been making an impact on the feet with his thunderous punching power, while his low kicks also land hard and helped him swiftly stop Junior Tafa last time out. Baraniewski can get drawn into risky exchanges though where his defence becomes an afterthought, while his tendency to throw everything with full power raises questions about how his cardio would hold up if he’s taken beyond the first round.
While there’s potential openings for Menifield to exploit here I feel that the combination of Baraniewski’s explosive power and Menifield’s increasingly suspect chin will lead him a 1st round KO finish here.
Pick: Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO in Rd1.
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
Gable Steveson returns after a first‑round KO win in his UFC debut to face Sean Sharaf, who has been stopped by TKO in both of his Octagon appearances.
Steveson, 26, arrives with enormous hype thanks to his status as one of the greatest heavyweight wrestlers ever, including having won a gold medal at the 2020 Olympics. His athletic pedigree attracted interest from other major sports before he committed fully to MMA, where he’s now being mentored by Jon Jones. He’s proven to be a fast learner so far and has already won all four of his fights inside the first round, but he is still a work-in-progress. At around 6 feet tall he’s not a tall heavyweight, but he’s very powerfully built and manages to be both explosive and agile. At this stage he’s already crafting a versatile striking game that doesn’t just rely on his big punching power as he also deploys Jon Jones influenced front kicks to the body and oblique kicks, while he also seems to have a good feel for adding in impactful knees at close range. He is still quite raw defensively though, and while wrestling is his strong suit, the threat of a guillotine choke submission in his UFC debut was enough to have him quickly back off a takedown attempt.
The 33-year-old Sharaf was also signed early in his career when he was just 4–0, but in his case it hasn’t gone well so far as despite facing low‑tier heavyweights in Junior Tafa and Steven Asplund, he was TKO’d by both. His game is quite basic, focusing on heavy-handed boxing, and he will invest in body shots as well as the occasional elbows. He’s slow though, lacks mobility, and while he is reasonably durable he absorbs far too many strikes that eventually take their toll.
I don’t really see Sharaf as being a UFC-level fighter and think Steveson will be able to find another 1st round TKO finish.
Pick: Gable Steveson wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain
Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira
Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito
Casey O’Neill vs. Eduarda Moura
Ryan Gandra vs. Osman Diaz
Michael Aswell Jr. vs. Yoo Joo-sang
