UFC Fight Night 246 takes place on Saturday night and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
After back-to-back defeats, ex-flyweight champion Brandon Moreno now heads into another big fight against Amir Albazi, who has won all five of his UFC fights.
The 30-year-old Moreno will have been disappointed to have lost out by split-decision to Brandon Royval last time out given that he’d already beaten him by TKO a few years ago. The feeling going into that fight was that Moreno had only improved since they’d last fought, including going through an ‘iron-sharpens-iron’ quadrilogy of hard-fought title fights against Deieveson Figueiredo. And overall it does still feel like that’s the case as Moreno’s compact, pressure-heavy boxing game did become more potent during that time, while his ability to blend in his solid wrestling and good offensive and defensive grappling ability together became even more cohesive too. He had a gruelling run of fights for several years though, so while he’s still impressively durable and continues to have never been stopped by strikes or submission, it’s no surprise that he took a large part of this year off from competing due to suffering from mental burnout.
The 31-year-old Albazi made an immediate impact in the UFC with a series of convincing wins, although his last victory over Kai Kara-France that took his career record to 17-1 was more questionable, with there being a strong school of thought that he should have came out on the losing end of the split-decision verdict that night. That was over a year-and-a-half ago and if things had gone differently he may have been a title contender by now, but instead he underwent a couple of serious health scares that led to him requiring both heart surgery and then neck surgery. He’s now back to full fitness, but needless to say there will still be some concerns about whether he’ll be back to his old self in his comeback fight on Saturday night. Albazi certainly has the technical skills to do well though as like Moreno he is a well-rounded fighter. On the feet he fights at a slower, less aggressive tempo than Moreno, but he’s technically sound with his striking, while he’s proven to be a good wrestler and backs that up with an assured grappling game too.
This is a closely matched fight between two very talented flyweights with similar skill-sets, but given Albazi’s health issues in recent times and Moreno’s experience advantage, together with ‘The Assassin Baby’s’ more active offense on the feet I’ll go for Moreno to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Brandon Moreno wins by decision.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas
Erin Blanchfield’s hopes of a title shot this year were dashed when her six-fight unbeaten run was ended with a decision loss to Manon Fiorot. Now she faces ex-strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, who also lost to Fiorot in her 125lb debut last year, but she’s since picked up two wins in a row as she looks to get into the title hunt.
The 25-year-old Blanchfield is at her best on the mat thanks to her skilled grappling that makes her a clear threat via submission, while she’s also shown off a surprisingly mean ground-and-pound game too. During her winning streak Blanchfield also proved to be a willing striker who isn’t afraid to wade into the firing line in order to force her will on her opponent. However, against Fiorot there was clear disparity in terms of athleticism, technique and power that could continue to be problematic at the highest level. Still, if nothing else she showed off her toughness, and she’s still young enough to make improvements going forward.
In fact, Blanchfield would do well to take inspiration from Namajunas, who initially joined the UFC in her early 20’s as an unrefined but skilled grappler who then went on to develop a very clean, technical striking game, which together with more composure and smart game-planning led her to two separate stints as strawweight champion. Namajunas has had struggles with the mental side of her game at times and as such hasn’t always performed to her true potential. And at 32-years-old it feels like she’s become more cautious in how she fights, leading to being less active on the feet, while also preferring to go for position over submission when on the mat.
If Namajunas is having one of her off-days then Blanchfield’s more aggressive, determined and hard-working approach could pay dividends – particularly on the mat. That being said, I do think Namajunas is the far superior striker, and with her speed, accuracy and footwork I feel she can pick her opponent apart on the outside, while also having a crafty enough ground game to cope there if required. I’ll pick Namajunas to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Rose Namajunas wins by decision.
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Derrick Lewis has gone 2-1 in his last three Octagon appearances and now fights Jhonata Diniz, who has picked up two wins in the UFC, extended his unbeaten career record to 8-0.
Lewis will turn 40 early next year and there is a feeling that he is in the twilight stage of his career now. While he might be in decline his punching power is still as much of a threat as ever though, with his last two wins both coming via TKO, ensuring he remains the current record holder for most knockouts in UFC history (15). And Lewis continues to be surprisingly agile for his size at times, enabling him to close ground quickly to land potentially fight-ending blows. He has become less durable though, as a year-long spell starting in mid-2022 proved when he was finished three times by strikes. Meanwhile, some fighters have started to have more success keeping ‘The Black Beast’ grounded for extended periods, whereas in the past he’d had a knack for just forcing his way back to his feet by sheer brute force rather than good technique. And of course cardio was never a strong suit for Lewis, though he still retains his uncanny ability to still be a sporadic offensive force even when he’s running on empty.
Diniz had a 22-7 run as a pro-kickboxer with promotions like Glory before switching to MMA a couple of years ago and fighting his way to the UFC via the Contender Series. He’s won seven of his eight fights so far via strikes, demonstrating good punching power together with heavy kicks, but at least in MMA terms this is a massive step up in competition for him. That being said, in his kickboxing days he went the distance with dangerous fighters like Rico Verhoeven and Daniel Ghita, so he’s not going to be overawed by the occasion.
Diniz has been inspired by the golden-age of the legendary ‘Chute Boxe’ camp in the past, but he’d be wise not to get too committed to an all-out brawl against Lewis. That being said, I do think he could have success with his hard-hitting leg kicks early in the fight to aid his chances, and with Lewis not taking a punch quite as well as he once did I’ll take Diniz to be the one to then land the finishing blow here by the 2nd round, if not earlier.
Pick: Jhonata Diniz wins by TKO in Rd2.
Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Two contender recruits fighting for their places in the UFC here, with both Caio Machado and Brendson Ribeiro having lost their two fights in the Octagon so far.
Up to this point the 30-year-old Machado has been competing at heavyweight, but after a half-year absence he’s expected to have lost 50lbs by the time he steps on the scales on Friday in order to make a fresh start at 205lbs. Machado has a kickboxing style and in his former weight class he had respectable technique and a speed advantage, as well as decent grappling, but we’ll have to wait and see if that remains the case in his new weight class. Machado has never been stopped by strikes or submission in his 11-fight career, but he does keep his striking defense low and is there to be hit at times.
The 28-year-old Ribeiro has a large 81″ wingspan, so he’ll actually have a 3″ reach advantage here, despite being an inch shorter than his former heavyweight opponent. Ribeiro is a fast starter who wields finishing power and goes all in for the finish with fast strikes, while he also likes to go for guillotine chokes, which did pay off at times on the regional scene. Despite his reach Ribeiro likes to close the distance and brawl, and that can cost him at times as his defense isn’t the best. As such he’s been finished by strikes three times in the opening round since 2022, including a KO loss early in his UFC debut.
I’m not confident in either guy here, but with there being some doubt about how Machado’s weight cut will go, together with Ribeiro pushing the kind of pace and intensity he won’t have experienced up at heavyweight, I’ll says it’s Ribeiro who finds the first round TKO finish here.
Pick: Brendson Ribeiro wins by TKO in Rd1.
Marc-André Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
After two losses in 2024 so far, Marc-Andre Barriault will attempt to end the year on a better note when he squares up to Dustin Soltzfus, who has lost two of his last three bouts.
A powerfully built middleweight, the 34-year-old Barriault tends to employ a brute-force approach to fighting that’ll see him pressure opponents on the feet by pressing forward with thudding strikes thrown in volume, while also employing grinding work from the clinch and utilizing decent takedown defense. He also has good cardio and has typically been quite durable over the years, but has KO’d in just 16 seconds back in 2022 and was knocked out again in 85 seconds back in June, so he’s no longer as reliable that way as he once was.
The 32-year-old Stoltzfus will be able to sympathise with that as he was TKO’d in 19 seconds a couple of years ago and was also KO’d in the first round in June. In fact, Stoltzfus’ whole run in the UFC so far has been a rough ride, having lost his first three fights, and only since having managed to improve that to a 2-5 record. Durability aside, Stoltzfus is a decent enough strike from a technical standpoint, but he does lack speed and finishing power. He does have quite good wrestling though and has picked up six wins via submission, including a rare ‘Twister’ finish prior to arriving in the UFC. His own submission defense is less convincing though, having been finished twice during his time in the Octagon.
If Stoltzfus struggles to get this fight to the mat then I think it’ll be another tough night for him, with Barriault’s more active, harder-hitting offense gradually taking it’s toll on him, resulting in a 2nd round finish via TKO.
Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault wins by TKO in Rd2.
Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
After a solid 3-0 start to his time in the UFC, Mike Malott then suffered a TKO loss and now will attempt to rebound against Trevin Giles, who has lost his last two fights.
The 32-year-old Malott took a mid-career break from competing several years ago, but kept his hand in the game by working as a striking coach for Team Alpha Male as well as competing in grappling tournaments. He then returned to fighting in 2020 and has since made it to the UFC via the Contender Series. He’s a solid all-rounder who is composed on the feet and has respectable power, while he’s also a capable wrestling and offers a submission threat on the mat, particularly via the guillotine choke. Malott was doing well against Neil Magny last time out until his veteran opponents pace took a toll on his cardio late in the fight, leading to him being finished. I feel that’s more an issue with that specific opponent rather than a major cause for concern going forward though.
Giles is also 32 and despite his potential he’s proven to be a very inconsistent fighter who has only mustered a 7-6 run in the UFC to date. That’s largely because he’s a fighter who can perform well offensively, but lets himself down defensively and makes poor decisions at times. He has solid boxing technique, has good speed and moves well, but his defensive lapses have resulted in three defeats via strikes in recent years, including a knockout loss in his last fight. And meanwhile on the mat he’s also a threat via submission, but also leaves himself open to being tapped out at times too.
This could be a fun back-and-forth fight, but overall I think Malott’s more robust defense, durability and composure should enable him to gain the upper-hand here wherever the fight goes on his way to a second round finish via strikes.
Pick: Mike Malott wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
Ariane Lipski vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
Alexander Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrović
