UFC Fight Night 248 takes place at an earlier start time than normal in Macau, China tomorrow and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Former champions at bantamweight and flyweight respectively, Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo now go up against each other at 135lbs in the main event of this weekend’s event in Macau.
The 31-year-old Yan got back to winning ways last time out with a decision victory over Song Yadong after a surprising slump in form by his standards that had seen him lose three fights in a row. That doesn’t tell the whole story though as he only lost to two other leading bantamweights in Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley by narrow split-decision verdicts, while his most recent loss was to soon-to-be-champ Merab Dvalishvili. So the reality is that while he doesn’t have the same invincible aura he once did during a long-winning streak earlier in his UFC run, Yan still remains one of the best in the division. Yan’s boxing ability has always impressed as he has fast hands, good power and intelligently pieces together accurate combinations. He also ramps up his intensity as the fight goes on, backed up by very good cardio, and yet he still manages to stays defensively sound, and has never been stopped in his 23-fight career. Meanwhile Yan has very good wrestling ability and strong takedown defense.
The 36-year-old Figueiredo is best known for his memorable four-fight series of 125lb title clashes with Brandon Moreno that saw the belt go back-and-forth between them until a TKO loss in their final fight prompted the Brazilian to move up to 135lbs. And though he’s on the smaller side for a bantamweight, Figueiredo has made his mark with three wins against Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt and Marlon Vera already taking him to the No.5 spot on the rankings. Figueiredo is shorter than Yan by 3″, but has an inch in reach over him. He’s a skilled striker who doesn’t have as high of an output as Yan, but he pieces together fast punches and kicks well, has carried his power with him to his current weight and is solid defensively. Meanwhile he can transition into takedowns well and he has more to offer as a submission threat than Yan on the mat.
These are two very talented fighters and it’ll make for an entertaining battle, but in the end I feel that Yan is the more natural bantamweight and his ever-increasing intensity and volume as the fight goes on over five rounds will gradually help him gain the advantage, leading him to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Petr Yan wins by decision.
Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci
Yan Xiaonan comes into this fight off an unsuccessful attempt to win the 125lb title at UFC 300, and now goes up against Tabatha Ricci, who has strung together three wins in a row already this year.
The 35-year-old Xiaonan had a tough fight against current champ Zhang Weili last time out, most notably a controversial moment at the end of the first round when she appeared to be choked out, only to be saved by the bell and a lenient referee. To her credit Xiaonan didn’t let that phase her and continued trying to find a way into the fight, leading to some success mid-way through the fight, before being over-run in the championship rounds to lose convincingly by unanimous decision. Xiaonan is a technical kickboxer who has respectable enough power, but tends to focus on speed and volume-striking to get the better of her opponents and works the jab well. Her defensive wrestling can let her down at times, but that being said when she is forced to the mat she has proven to be hard to finish.
The 29-year-old Ricci is a compact flyweight who will be at a 3″ height and 2″ reach disadvantage here. She has developed a fairly well-rounded game after working to level up her boxing in order to strike in volume with good movement, although she’s not proven to be much of a threat in terms of finishing power. Ricci already had a judo background and is strong for her size, so she works well in the clinch and is able to pursue takedown opportunities. And once on the mat she has good grappling, though still without too much to show in terms of end product, with only 3 of her 11 wins coming by submission.
Xiaonan has the size and striking advantage here and I think that will help her to keep Ricci largely at bay with her active offense from range on her way to a decision victory.
Pick: Yan Xiaonan wins by decision.
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Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov
Song Kenan has a mixed 6-4 record in the UFC, but is coming off an August win as he now gets set to fight Muslim Salikhov, who has gone 7-4 in the promotion, including a 1-1 stint so far this year.
Kenan is a 34-year-old striker who has demonstrated impressive punching power, particularly during his run on the regional scenes, leading to a number of quick finishes. He continued to show that early in his UFC run, but more recently he’s had less success, not helped by his lack of output at times in his fights. Kenan’s defense is also an issue and he has been finished twice by strikes in his last five fights. Meanwhile, on the mat Kenan can offer a submission threat, but at the same time he can find himself coming off second-best in grappling exchanges.
A split-decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out showed that the 40-year-old Salikhov is still a force to be reckoned with, despite having been KO’d earlier in the year during a slump in form that had seen him lose three of his previous four fights. ‘The King Of Fu’ has never looked like the most athletic fighter, but he has good technique and is a smart operator who reads his opponent’s well and when he does strike he offers up accurate punches, a good variety of kicks and will mix in spinning attacks too. And Salikhov can also make use of an underrated wrestling game from time to time. His output is dwindling a bit though at this stage in his career and his durability is also becoming a potential issue.
Kenan’s power could be a big factor early in the fight, but I think Salikhov’s more crafty striking and better reads will enable him to stay out of trouble when necessary and win rounds to emerge with a decision victory.
Pick: Muslim Salikhov wins by decision.
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Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Wang Cong is 6-0 in her MMA career to date after marking her UFC debut a few months ago with a KO victory and now she takes on Gabriella Fernandes, who had a rough start in the UFC with back-to-back losses, but has since got her first win via split-decision.
The 32-year-old Cong might not have many MMA fights under her belt but she has an extensive combat sports background, particularly in kickboxing, where she holds the distinction of having beaten current UFC flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko back in 2015. Known as ‘The Joker’, and dressing up like him at the weigh-ins to hammer-home that point, Cong has done a good job of marketing herself, but most importantly a 62 second KO victory in her first Octagon appearance showed she’s a genuine threat. That’s not to say she’s historically a lights-out finisher, but she does have very good technical kickboxing ability, and she also earned a couple of submission finishes before joining the UFC to prove she’s not neglecting other aspects of her MMA game.
Meanwhile the 31-year-old Fernandes also employs a kickboxing based style, but isn’t operating at the same level as Cong in that regard. A former LFA fighter, she had showed signs of having more to her game than just striking, but so far in the UFC her ground-game hasn’t impressed, particularly in terms of her wrestling.
Cong comes into this fight as an overwhelming favorite and I think this is a fight where he striking superiority should be clear to see on home soil as she bosses the stand-up action and claims a 2nd round TKO victory.
Pick: Wang Cong wins by decision.
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg
No.8 ranked light-heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir comes in off back-to-back wins to fight the No.10 placed Carlos Ulberg, who is on a six-fight winning streak.
Early in his UFC career Oezdemir was fast-tracked to title contention after a few fast finishes, but it proved to be a step too far and he’s only gone 5-6 since that time. He is no pushover though as he proved last time out when he KO’d Johny Walker in half-a-round. For the most part though the 35-year-old has settled into being a competent, experienced kickboxer with solid fundamentals who can flash good power at times, but is also happy to not push the pace too much at times and just settle into a steady rhythm. Oezdemir also has good takedown defense and while he’d prefer to stay on the feet he can operate on the mat if required.
The 34-year-old Ulberg is an athletic kickboxer who will also have a size advantage here, being 3″ taller with an extra 2″ in reach over Oezdemir. He’s an offensively-minded striker with impressive power to go along with his speed and accuracy from range, and that’s led to four of his wins during his current UFC win-streak coming in the 1st round. Ulberg’s ground game looked underdeveloped when he first arrived in the UFC, but he’s clearly been working on it, and a late submission win last year was the pay-off for that.
At this stage in their career’s Ulberg seems to be fighting with more belief and purpose, so while Oezdemir might use his experience to manage his energy levels better late in the fight, I’ll take Ulberg to have already done enough by that stage to earn a decision victory.
Pick: Carlos Ulberg wins by decision.
Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz
Zhang Mingwang made a perfect start to his UFC career with a fast KO finish in February and now returns to fight Ozzy Diaz, who makes his promotional debut after two solid wins this year for the LFA promotion.
The 26-year-old Mingyang marked himself out as an impressive finisher during his time fighting in China’s regional circuit, with all 15 of his wins at the time coming via either strikes or submission. He then was picked up for the ‘Road To UFC: Singapore’ show a couple of years ago and continued in the same fashion with a 1st round KO, which he’s since replicated in his UFC debut this year. It’s no surprise then that Mingyang is only to eager to start throwing heavy leather, but that can come at the expense of his defense, being all too willing to take a shot or two in order to land his own. And is often the case that’s not always worked out for him as he’s been KO’d twice and TKO’d once over the course of his career to date, as well as a few submission losses too. On the positive side though, Mingyang is currently riding a 10-fight winning streak that dates back the start of 2020.
The 33-year-old Diaz appeared on the Contender Series a couple of years ago, but fell victim to a TKO defeat against Joe Pyfer, who is now established in the UFC. Diaz had a lay-off after that disappointment, but returned to action this year with back-to-back wins via strikes in LFA to book a spot in the UFC. Diaz will hold a 2″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Mingyang, which he’ll hope will give him an edge in the striking exchanges. He likes to operate from distance and is methodical about how he goes on the attack and has a good finishing record to show for it, with all nine of his wins coming before the final bell, including 7 by strikes. On the downside though he’s no stranger to being rocked and has had to fight through that to get his wins at times.
I’m not sure how well Diaz’s chin will stand up to a heavy-hitter like Mingyang here once fists start flying in the opening round, so I’ll take Mingyang to emerge with another 1st round finish here via TKO.
Pick: Zhang Mingwang wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Xie Bin vs. Zhu Kangjie
Baergeng Jieleyisi vs. You Su-young
Kiru Singh Sahota vs. Choi Dong-hun
Shi Ming vs. Feng Xiaocan
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Carlos Hernandez
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa
Xiao Long vs. Quang Le
Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Nikolas Motta
