UFC Fight Night 253 takes place on Saturday night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
Manel Kape has notched up four wins from his last five Octagon appearances and now takes on Asu Almabayev, who is 4-0 in the UFC so far and steps in here on short notice to replace Brandon Royval.
Kape is one of the most dangerous fighters in the flyweight ranks thanks to his speed, power and dynamic striking ability. Despite that the 31-year-old does have a tendency to use his offense sparingly, which can lead to spells of inactivity as he waits for the right moment to land a potentially fight-ending punch, flying knee or head kick. Kape would prefer to keep the fight upright as often as possible, but while his takedown defense is fairly solid it isn’t always successful. He can operate on the mat when required though, and while he’s not utilized it much lately he did earn some submission wins earlier in his career.
Almabayev was already training for a fight with Steve Erceg on this show before his opponent was given another assignment, so he’ll still be in good shape here, although he now has to switch on short notice to preparing for a five-rounder. The 31-year-old Almabayev has good cardio though and is a well-rounded fighter with a preference for employing a control-heavy grappling game. He will look to pursue takedowns frequently and stifle his opponents once he has them grounded. He has a good submission game too that accounts for nine of his victories, but a further nine wins via decision highlights his willingness to just grind out wins when required.
Kape’s ability to conjure up a finish out of thin-air means he’ll remain dangerous from start to finish when the fight is on the feet, but Almabayev will be doing his best to ensure the action stays on the mat as often as possible. If he’s unable to do so then it could be a tough night for him, but I think Almabayev will enjoy a lot of control time on top, and Kape’s lack of volume on the feet will then make it challenging him for him to find a finish when he is upright. So I’ll take Almabayev to play it safe and win on the scorecards.
Pick: Asu Almabayev wins by decision.
Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
The co-main event features two fighters in need of a win, with Cody Brundage having lost his two fights last year, while Julian Marquez has suffered three defeats in a row from strikes.
The 30-year-old Brundage has in fact failed to emerge victorious in five of his last seven fights, and one of his two wins was due to his opponent being disqualified for illegal elbows to the back of the head. That unfortunate ending was mirrored in Brundage’s last fight, although this time the illegal elbows he suffered only led to a no-contest ruling. Brundage’s skill-set doesn’t stand out in any particular regard. He does have a background in wrestling from his high school and college days which he does use, but relies more on strength than skill and as such has only got him so far in the UFC. It’s a similar story with his striking as he does have power, but his technique is fairly basic.
A bad back injury mid-way through his UFC led to over two years on the sidelines for the 34-year-old Marquez, and that means he’s actually only has seven fights in the Octagon despite being with the promotion since 2017. Marquez is an all-action, offensively-minded fighter who likes to press forward and unleash his heavy artillery. Six of his his nine victories have come via strikes, with the other three being by an equally aggressive submission game, but he doesn’t have the best wrestling. His real issue of late however has been his durability, with two TKO defeats and a KO taking a toll on his chin.
There’s good reason not to have much confidence in either fighter here given their recent form. Marquez’s slump is more troubling though, particularly as durability is a crucial component for a fighter who is as direct and defensively suspect as him, and as such I think Brundage’s heavy hands and option to mix in some wrestling if required will lead him to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Cody Brundage wins by TKO in Rd2.
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
After four wins in a row, Nasrat Haqparast now takes on Esteban Ribovics, who is also in fine form off the back of a three-fight winning streak.
The 29-year-old Haqparast is a technical sound, agile striker who moves well and puts his combinations together nicely with good speed. Haqparast also has good takedown defense, but is well-rounded enough to be comfortable if the fight goes to the mat. Despite being a finisher earlier in his career, Haqparast has trended to be more a decision-orientated fighter during his lengthy run in the Octagon.
The 28-year-old Ribovics showed off his battling qualities to emerge with a split-decision win over daniel Zellhuber at Noche FC last year, taking his career record to 14-1. Ribovics is a good striker who likes to pressure his opponents on the feet and has the power to find a finish early, as well as the heart and durability to fight through adversity if the action goes into the later rounds. And he certainly will eat strikes along the way and has also been outwrestled at times too, but he has a knack for finding a way to win.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and it should be an entertaining scrap. In some ways Haqparast feels more reliable here, but I think Ribovic’s toughness and aggression, together with being the more impactful striker will help him get the edge in a back-and-forth battle to win by a late TKO stoppage.
Pick: Esteban Ribovics wins by TKO in Rd3.
Austen Lane vs. Mário Pinto
With just win in four Octagon appearances so far, Austen Lane has a lot left to prove as he now comes up against the debuting Mario Pinto, who holds a 9-0 record.
A former NFL player who turned to MMA when he struggled to get game time, the 37-year-old Lane hasn’t made much of an impact in the UFC so far, and back-to-back KO losses not so long ago didn’t bode well for him. However, a fortunate match-up against former Olympic Taekwondo medalist Robelis Despaigne offered a glimmer of hope as he took advantage of his opponents non-existent ground-game to earn a decision win. Lane certainly looks the part as a big, athletic heavyweight standing 6ft 6″ with an 80″ reach, but his striking and wrestling is functional at best and tends to lean heavily on his physicality.
The 26-year-old Pinto arrives in the UFC via the Contender series, where he KO’d his opponent in less than two minutes last year. Like Lane, Pinto is also a large and athletically built heavyweight, so he won’t have to worry about giving up any kind of significant height or reach here. Pinto has good striking fundamentals, and though he has knockout power, he’s also been willing to employ a more patient approach and showed he has the cardio to go five rounds in a regional fight last year. We’ve yet to see how he’ll cope against tougher opposition though now that he’s in the UFC, including how his ground game will shape up when it gets tested.
Lane has yet to prove he really belongs in the UFC, and concerns over his durability only make things tougher for him. Pinto is 11 years his junior and matches up well physically with him, but also has better striking technique and is less shop-worn, so I’ll take him to mark his debut with a 1st round knockout win.
Pick: Mario Pinto wins by KO in Rd1.
Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
Hyder Amil has picked up back-to-back wins since joining the UFC and now gets into the Octagon with William Gomis, who is 4-0 in the promotion.
The 34-year-old Amil is a high-volume striker who looks to overwhelm his opponents with his intensity. It’s an approach that’s gone well in the UFC, racking up two TKO victories, including a 65 second finish last time out. That aggression comes at a cost though as he’s a bit wild with his strikes and is open to being hit in return. Amil can also be outwrestled, but generally is able to get back to his feet in the end.
Gomis is a tall, long-limbed kickboxer with clean technique who likes to operate from range and has an extra 3″ in height and reach to aid him in that regard here. Unlike Amil, Gomis has a much more cautious, low-volume style, utilizing good movement and distance-keeping weapons to keep the fight at his preferred distance while looking for counter-striking opportunities. If the fight does get into closer quarters Gomis likes to clinch up, and can go for a takedown, but he’s not the biggest threat on the mat.
There’s a clear line in the sand in terms of how these two operate. Amil pressure and high-volume offense could bewhat it takes to disrupt Gomis’, but then again, Joanderson Brito also has a high-intensity approach yet lost out on the scorecards to ‘The Jaguar’ last time out. As such I’m leaning towards Gomis to frustrate Amil with counter-strikes and clinch work, along with the threat of the occasional takedown in order to edge out a decision win.
Pick: William Gomis wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castañeda
Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich
Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida
Montana De La Rosa vs. Luana Carolina
Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov
