UFC Fight Night 256 Predictions

UFC Fight NIght 256 takes place this coming Saturday night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Gilbert Burns is in the unusual position of having to fight his way back from three defeats in a row when he faces the unbeaten Michael Morales, who is 5-0 in the UFC so far, taking his overall record to 17-0.

Burns can console himself with the fact that his recent defeats were to the top three fighters in the rankings in newly crowned champion Jack Della Maddalena (who he appeared to be beating up until being KO’d in the final round), former champion Belal Muhammad and current No.2 ranked contender Sean Brady. Given that he gave all three a good fight it’s clear that even at almost 39-years-old Burns is still a tough fight for anyone in the division. And that’s more impressive when you consider that Burns is a bit undersized at 170lbs, though he has generally proven to be durable, strong for his size and able to hit with enough power to earn respect. And Burns has no problem applying pressure on the feet, aided by having good cardio and opponents having to be wary of what else he brings to the table as he has respectable wrestling ability and is a highly regarded grappler who is willing to put that to the test against anyone.

The 25-year-old Morales has already had good success against seasoned veterans during his winning run in the UFC, beating the likes of Neil Magny, Jake Matthews and Max Griffin to maintain his pristine record. It helps that Morales is well-sized for the division with a large wingspan, which will give him a 2″ height and 9″ reach advantage over Burns. However, he’s also a good athlete with a nice balance between strength, power and speed on the feet, and that also reinforces his solid wrestling and impactful ground-and-pound. As such Morales has racked up 12 finishes in 17 fights, but he doesn’t force the issue as he adopts a patient approach and has the cardio to go the distance – although this will be his first taste of fighting in a five-rounder.

All credit to Burns for still being competitive at this late stage in his career. That being said, while Morales will have to be wary of the veteran’s submission threat, I think he can use his reach and solid power to his advantage to keep him on the end of his strikes for the most part to emerge with a win on the scorecards.

Pick: Michael Morales wins by decision.

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Paul Craig has acknowledge pre-fight that his UFC run could be under threat if he can’t turn around a slump in form that’s seen him lose five of his last six fights. To do so he’ll have to get the better of Contender Series recruit Rodolfo Bellato, who has picked up a win and a draw so far in the octagon.

It’s been quite an achievement that the 37-year-old Craig has managed to string together an eight-year run in the UFC given that he’s very much a throwback to the days when fighters were often only specialists in one fighting discipline. In Craig’s case that’s BJJ, with a particular focus on a tried-and-tested triangle choke that’s finished a number of quality opponents over the years, including being current 205lb champ Magomed Ankalaev’s only career loss. Craig had to endure a beating in order to secure that literal last-second finish, and that’s been the problem with his style, is that if he can’t find the submission he doesn’t have a whole lot else to offer. A lack of athleticism and power has really held him back on the feet over the years, and worse still, his lack of wrestling means he has to resort to guard-pulling or trying to force scrambles in order to get the fight where he wants it. And with opponents becoming increasingly wise to his ways those opportunities have become few and far between.

After a TKO win in his UFC debut, the 29-year-old Bellato spent the entirety of 2024 on the sidelines due to kidney troubles, and then returned to action earlier this year with a majority draw against Jimmy Curte. Bellato is an aggressive striker with good power and physical strength. He does have a few submission wins on his record too, but it’s likely he’ll use his decent wrestling to keep the fight standing given Craig’s threat on the mat.

This is a bad stylistic match-up for Craig, with Bellato’s aggressive pressure and knockout power making a good case for this fight being done and dusted before the first round is over via TKO.

Pick: Rodolfo Bellato wins by TKO in Rd1.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Sodiq Yusuff needs to get back on track after suffering two losses, and will now be taking on a short-notice fight up at lightweight against Mairon Santos, who has won both his UFC fights so far.

The 31-year-old Yusuff will be disappointed with his slip in form given that he was 6-1 in the Octagon before that, but there’s no shame in losing to veteran striking ace Edson Barboza and recent title contender Diego Lopes. That being said, an early TKO finish at the hands of Lopes was a concern. Yusuff is an athletically built striker with a composed style who attacks with speed and solid power both in his punches and kicks. He stays active offensively and did find a couple of fast finishes early in his UFC run to demonstrate his knockout potential, but he’s less potent later on in his fight and so several of his other UFC wins were on the scorecards. Yusuff is also well-rounded enough to have capable offensive wrestling and he’s generally able to find his way out of trouble on the mat.

The 24-year-old Santos has gone 15-1 in his career to date, with the majority of his wins coming on the Brazilian regional scene. He did however also have a brief stint in LFA and then won TUF Season 32 last year. However, while won the TUF final with a KO victory against Kaan Ofli, he was less convincing last time out in a split-decision win over Francis Marshall, and Yusuff is certainly a big step up in competition. Santos is a counter-striker with good speed and significant power, while his takedown defense and get-up game is still a work-in-progress.

Santos has a good record so far, but it might be flattering to deceive a little given the level of his competition, so I think Yusuff will put his recent setbacks behind him and prove to be the better striker on his way to a decision win.

Pick: Sodiq Yusuff wins by decision.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Dustin Soltzfus claimed a rare KO victory last time out and now looks to build on that against Nursulton Ruziboev, who has put together a 3-1 run in the Octagon.

A former Contender Series pick-up, the 31-year-old Stoltzfus has mostly had a rough time of it in the UFC, and was perhaps lucky to survive starting off with three losses in a row. He’s since been alternating between wins and losses over the past five bouts, making use of a dependable wrestling game, while also showing that despite back-to-back submission defeats against Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert that he actually has reasonable grappling. Stoltzfus’ striking is less convincing though. He has decent though kickboxing fundamentals, but his lack of speed and power is a problem, and made worse by durability concerns that have been raised after being TKO’d by Abus Magomedov in 19 seconds a few years ago and then KO’d by Brunno Ferreira in the opening round last year.

The 31-year-old Ruziboev arrived in the UFC having already had over 40 fights in his decade-long career. The fact that most of these wins came against unheralded opponents in far-flung promotions, and that he did have a number of losses too, left some doubt as to how good he really was, but he soon showed his worth back racking up two first round finishes in the UFC via strikes. A fight down at 170lbs against Joaquin Buckley next didn’t go his way, but he has since returned to middleweight with another TKO victory. The 6ft 5″ Ruziboev will have a 6″ height advantage on Saturday night, but only an extra inch in reach. Ruziboev’s experience shows in his well-rounded offensive threats. On the feet he has good speed and timing when unleashes his punches and kicks, and he’s comfortable transitioning to capable wrestling and is a proven submission threat, on the regional scene at least, with 20 submission finishes to his name. In fact only two of his 35 career wins went the distance, but on the other hand it’s concerning to note that he’s only won 2 and drawn 2 of his 11 fights that went to a decision.

Stoltzfus may well be hoping to weather an early storm here and then look to win on the scorecards, but given that Ruziboev is a finishing threat both on the feet and on the mat, and his opponent has been vulnerable in the past in both those areas, I think he’ll battle his way to a 2nd round TKO stoppage win.

Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev wins by TKO in Rd2.

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Both Julian Rosa and Melquizael Costa head into this main card opener with confidence having each won their last three fights in the promotion.

The 35-year-old Erosa’s time in the Octagon has been quite erratic as he’s actually had three separate runs in the UFC, starting off by going 1-1, then coming back later and fail to deliver with three defeats in a row. Erosa managed to get a third chance though, and this time he’s managed to go a respectable 8-3. That’s no mean feat given that Erosa is known for his aggressive, action-orientated style that’s very much in the kill-or-be-killed mould. He’s unusually tall and lanky for a featherweight at 6ft 1″, but while he’s certainly capable of striking from range, his battling mentality means he can be drawn into a slug-fest at closer range too, looking to overwhelm his opponents with his high-volume offense. However, Erosa’s chin hasn’t always been fit for purpose as he’s been either KO’d or TKO’d no less than eight times during his career, with six of those coming in the UFC (+1 on TUF). While that’s clearly troubling, Erosa does also have the option of switching things up as he’s also as much of a threat with his grappling as he is via strikes, with 13 submission wins to his name.

The 28-year-old Costa has a similar action-orientated style as Erosa, liking to press the action and aggressively attempt to seek out a finish either by strike or submission. And though Costa does have a few losses in his career he’s not yet run into the repeated durability issues as his opponent. That may come though as he has had to show his heart and determination to battle through big moments of adversity at times. Still, while he throws caution to the wind on the feet he does show respectable technique, particularly with his versatile kicking game, while he can also wrestle and will hunt for submissions on the mat.

Given how these two warriors fight it’s hard to see this one going the distance, and with Erosa being more battle-worn and chinny I think the more technical Costa will be the one who emerges with his hand raised courtesy of a first round TKO stoppage.

Pick: Melquizael Costa wins by TKO in Rd1.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moisés
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
Yadier Del Valle vs. Connor Matthews
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes
Park Hyun-sung vs. Carlos Hernandez
Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro