UFC Fight Night 257 takes place tomorrow morning in Shanghai, China and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang

Johnny Walker heads into this headlining fight looking to rebound from consecutive knockout losses, and to do so will have to beat China’s own Zhang Mingyang, who has made a perfect start to his UFC career with three straight wins.

For Walker, trying to bounce back from tough losses isn’t unfamiliar territory. After bursting onto the scene in 2018–2019 with three rapid-fire finishes, the 33-year-old hit a slump, dropping four of his next five fights. A brief resurgence between 2022 and 2023 saw him rack up three wins over other struggling fighters in Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith, but back-to-back KO defeats last year raised fresh concerns about his durability, and he now has six career knockout losses on his record. The year-long layoff since his last fight may help, but his chin remains a major concern. Physically, Walker remains an imposing presence, standing 6’5” tall with an 82-inch reach, giving him a 3-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage here. And that’s backed up by his dynamic and versatile striking arsenal that’s produced 16 career wins by (T)KO. His fight IQ has often let him down though, with his natural aggression having a tendency to veer off into recklessness, and though he’s tried to curb those instincts, he’s never looked entirely comfortable fighting in a more patient, strategic fashion.

The 27-year-old Mingyang is a powerful, forward-pressing striker who isn’t the most polished technician, but his finishing instincts are undeniable,, with all 12 of his career wins ending before the final bell. His current five-year unbeaten run spans both the Chinese regional scene and the UFC, though earlier in his career he was far less consistent, holding a 7–6 record and suffering multiple stoppage defeats along the way. His most notable win to date came against a retiring Anthony Smith, so questions remain about how he’ll fare against ranked competition.

Walker’s size, reach, and offensive arsenal make him a genuine threat, but his lapses in judgement and fragile chin are hard to overlook. Mingyang still has something to prove, yet he appears the sturdier, more reliable option here, and with his raw power, he’s well-equipped to capitalise on Walker’s defensive lapses. I’ll take Mingyang to land big in the first round exchanges to win by TKO.

Pick: Zhang Mingyang wins by TKO in Rd1.

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

Brian Ortega comes into this fight off a mixed 2024 run that saw him pick up a win and a loss. Across the cage from him is Aljamain Sterling, who also went 1–1 last year after moving up from bantamweight.

Once one of the UFC’s most hyped prospects, Ortega hasn’t enjoyed the momentum many expected since fighting his way to a title shot in 2018. In the years since, injuries and long layoffs have limited him to just six fights, and he’s lost four of them. At 34-years-old he’s now past his athletic peak, but Ortega does remain a dangerous fighter, particularly with his highly-skilled BJJ ability on the mat, where he’s proven to have a killer instinct for submissions, and a knack for capitalizing on scrambling situations. Wrestling has never been his strongest suit though and so he sometimes has to pull guard to get the fight there, which wouldn’t be ideal in this fight. Ortega’s stand-up has steadily improved over the years and his natural power is now complimented by crisper boxing and more nuance to his approch, and he’s still exceptionally mentally tough and durable, though he continues to be quite hittable.

A former bantamweight champ, the 36-year-old Sterling is a well-rounded fighter with good athleticism. Like Ortega, his greatest strength lies on the mat, and he’s the superior wrestler here, which helps him to dictate where the fight takes place and maintain strong control on top. His grappling may be slightly less finish-focused than Ortega, yet he’s still a big threat via submissions when he puts his mind to it, and he complements that with a striking game built on solid technique and high volume, rather than pure knockout power.

This is a well-matched fight, but my over-riding feeling heading into it was that Sterling’s wrestling and top control would win out. And today’s weigh-ins have only strengthened that belief as Ortega looked awful on the scale after the fight was hastily switched to a 155lb catchweight amid reports that he’d earlier been taken to hospital due to feinting. Ortega has a reputation for being too tough for his own good, and if this fight does still go ahead this might prove to be another example of that. I don’t think Sterling will finish him, but he’ll grind out a decision win here.

Pick: Aljamain Sterling wins by decision.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Sergei Pavlovich enters this bout fresh off a decision win earlier in the year, and will now attempt to end Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s five-fight winning streak.

Just two years ago, Pavlovich was tearing through the heavyweight ranks thanks to a six-fight knockout spree, with every finish coming inside the first round, stopping the likes of Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa along the way. That run came to an abrupt halt when Tom Aspinall returned the favor in their interim heavyweight title clash in 2023, followed by a decision loss to Alexander Volkov last year. Now 33, Pavlovich remains ranked No. 3 and is still a feared striker, whose impressive punching power is aided by a vast 84-inch reach, some six inches longer than his opponent. Known for pressuring opponents behind the jab before unleashing blistering punching combinations, Pavlovich is capable of quickly overwhelming his foe. However, 1st round losses to Aspinall and Alistair Overeem proved he can be caught, and in his last two outings, a more cautious approach has resulted in fighting that went to the scorecards rather than producing the fireworks we’ve come to expect from him.

The 33-year-old Cortes-Acosta was a later starter in MMA, having already had a pro-baseball career, before switching to fighting at 24-years-old. And he’s done well so far, fighting his way to the LFA heavyweight title before earning his place in the UFC, where he’s compiled a 7–1 Octagon record so far, including a victory over Sergey Spivak last time out. Admittedly some of those other wins came against aging veterans and lower-tier opposition, and Cortes-Acosta’s tends to be more solid than spectacular. However, he does have good athleticism and footwork, respectable boxing fundamentals, decent power, and he’s durable too.

If Pavlovich fighting tentatively again then Cortes-Acosta could certainly outpoint him on the scorecards. However, if Pavlovich is able to flip the switch then his aggressive offense and power advantage can lead him to a 1st round TKO victory.

Pick: Sergei Pavlovich wins by TKO in Rd1.

Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Su Mudaerji halted a three-fight skid in April with a split-decision victory and now faces Kevin Borjas, who rebounded from two straight losses to claim his first UFC win earlier this year.

The 29-year-old Mudaerji is a striking specialist with a 17–7 pro record, with 13 of those wins coming via T(KO). Many of those finishes were earned against lower-tier opposition on the Chinese regional scene though, and three of his four wins during a 4-4 run in the UFC so far were by decision. He did however KO Malcolm Gordon in the Octagon back in 2020, and has proven to be a fast, accurate puncher with a versatile kicking arsenal. That being said, his grappling deficiencies have been an issue, with his questionable takedown and submission defense leading to six career submission losses, including three in the Octagon.

The 27-year-old Borjas is also primarily a striker, and before joining the promotion, the Peruvian went 9–1, finishing eight opponents via strikes. He’s found the going tougher in the UFC though, going 1–2. A forward-marching pressure striker, Borjas combines compact boxing with well-timed knees, relying on his good cardio to keep a steady pace throughout. He’s generally durable but often trusts his chin too much instead of tightening up on his defense, and he was TKO’d last year, though that was more down to being worn down by leg kicks.

This should be a competitive fight, but Madaerji has the home advantage and the more varied, accurate offense, so I’ll take him to edge out a decision victory.

Pick: Su Mudaerji wins by decision.

Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie

Taiyilake Nueraji brings an 11-1 record to the Octagon for his UFC debut, where he’ll be going up against Kiefer Crosbie, whose gone 0-2 in the promotion so far.

Nueraji first made his mark with an impressive KO on ‘Road to UFC’ Season 2 in 2023, then rattled off three more first‑round finishes on the regional circuit before finally signing for the UFC. An aggressive, forward‑pressing striker, ‘Super Saiyan’ has ended all 11 of his victories inside the distance, including 10 by way of strikes. A big welterweight, he’ll carry a 3‑inch height and 5‑inch reach advantage here, and will pair his size with speed to launch explosive combinations of punches, kicks, elbows, and knees. While potent offensively, his commitment to offense can leave gaps defensively, and his ground game isn’t the best, though he brings more there than his opponent.

The 35-year-old Crosbie reached the UFC after consecutive first‑round elbow‑strike stoppages on the regional scene, but his prior Bellator stint saw him go 4–3, and he’s stumbled to an 0–2 UFC record, with both defeats coming via submission. He carries genuine knockout power, but his approach is often wild and overly aggressive, with technical fundamentals being an afterthought. His defensive grappling is a real weakness that has been exploited since making the step up in competition.

I think Nueraji can match Crosbie’s intensity here, and with his size advantage and more versatile striking arsenal will battle his way to a 2nd round TKO victory.

Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji wins by TKO in Rd2.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Gauge Young
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson
Rong Zhu vs. Austin Hubbard
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus
Yi Zha vs. Westin Wilson
Xiao Long vs. You Su-young
Uran Satybaldiev vs. Diyar Nurgozhay