UFC Fight Night 268 takes place this coming Saturday night in Mexico City, Mexico and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Moreno enters this fight after the first TKO loss of his long career, and now meets a late‑notice replacement in Lone’er Kavanagh, who was KO’d in his last visit to the Octagon.

Former flyweight champion Moreno has been fighting the best-of-the-best at flyweight for years now, so he’s done well to make it 33-fights into his career before losing to strikes, and will now be eager to make sure that was just a one-off. At 32-years-old he’s perhaps not as consistent as he once was, occasionally looking a bit jaded, but also still capable of strong performances. And he certainly has the tools to bounce back from his latest defeat with his tried-and-tested mix of pressure boxing behind a cultured jab, well‑timed takedowns, assured grappling and good conditioning.

Kavanagh is coming off his first career loss via KO at an earlier in his journey, with only 10 pro bouts under his belt so far. Despite that, the 26-year-old has shown real promise as he’s a fast, dynamic striker with sharp combinations and good movement, and he’s produced some impressive finishes. He already has two wins in the UFC, and his last outing actually started well enough, but his energetic style did tax his gas tank and he struggled with pressure as the fight went on, so that will have been an important learning experience for him.

It’s a big ask for Kavanagh to come in off a KO loss to face a former champion on short-notice, but with his youth, speed and slick kickboxing combinations he can’t be taken likely. Moreno is a battle-tested veteran though, and I think he’ll be able to leverage his stronger wrestling, grappling and conditioning to fight to a third round submission victory.

Pick: Brandon Moreno wins by submission in Rd3.

Marlon Vera vs. David Martínez

Marlon Vera has dropped four of his last five fights and now goes up against David Martinez, who’s has opened his UFC account with two victories.

Even during his recent losing slump The 33-year-old Vera has still managed to maintain his record of having never been finished, but his slow starts and tendency to absorb damage are an issue. He’s dangerous when he can create a big moment out of nothing, as seen in his head‑kick knockouts of Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz, but he can be too reliant on that, and so if it doesn’t materialise then he often struggles on the scorecards. He remains a threat with his finishing potential on the feet though, while he also has a dangerous submission game that he’d do well to make more use of.

A win over a respected veteran in Rob Font last time out was a big feather in his cap of the 27-year-old Martinez. As such he’s already ranked 10th in the bantamweight division and featuring in a co-main event spot for the 2nd time, despite only being three fights into his UFC run. He delivers fast, dynamic muay thai striking, and likes to throw flashy techniques into the mix with admirable accuracy. He’s shown off his power too with 10 of his 13 victories coming via strikes. His takedown defence and cardio have held up so far, but we haven’t seen too much of his ground game yet.

Martinez has the speed and output to cause Vera problems here. The veteran could turn to his grappling to make things interesting, but I’m not convinced that’ll be the case and so I’ll take the younger man to best him on the feet to win by decision.

Pick: David Martinez wins by decision.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green

Daniel Zellhuber looks to rebound from two straight losses when he fights King Green, who recently fought his way out of a slump thanks to a split‑decision win.

Zellhuber had early momentum in the UFC thanks to three wins in a row, while a competitive ‘Fight Of The Night’ decision loss to Esteban Ribovics did little to harm his stock. However, a more convincing defeat against veteran fighter Michael Johnson last time out has left him with work to do. The 26-year-old Zellhuber is a tall, long lightweight with a significant 3″ height and 6″ reach advantage here , and he does his best work at range with good boxing and steady kicks. His willingness to get drawn into slug-fests can lead to him getting hit more than he should, but though he’s been hurt, he’s never been finished. And he does also have some versatility as he has solid clinch and grappling ability.

The 39-year-old Green remains tricky and unorthodox but he’s become less durable at this stage in his career, with four of his last five defeats being via strikes. His style also depends heavily on speed, timing, and reactive defence, which are now fading with age and leaving him more vulnerable. The wily veteran can still frustrate opponents though with his awkward angles and counter-striking, and he can put up a fight on the mat too.

Zellhuber’s youth, size, and sturdiness match up well against an aging Green, and with his steady pressure and strikes from range I think Zellhuber is well positioned to fight to a second‑round TKO stoppage.

Pick: Daniel Zellhuber wins by TKO in Rd2.

Édgar Cháirez vs. Felipe Bunes

Edgar Chairez had picked up a couple of wins and losses as well as a no-contest in his five-fight UFC run so far, and now goes up against Felipe Bunes, who has lost two of his three bouts.

The 30-year-old Chairez earned his way into the promotion after a Contender Series appearance and has faced some tough opposition early in his run, with his losses coming to current champ Joshua Van and next title contender Tatsuro Taira. He’s a big flyweight and is a strong, aggressive striker who doesn’t have the highest output, but has power in his hands and will mix in kicks and spinning attacks. His biggest threat, though is his grappling with eight career submissions, including two first‑round tapouts in the Octagon, and so while his takedown defense isn’t the best, he welcomes opportunities to operate on the mat.

The 36-year-old Bunes has struggled to find consistency at this level so far. He has some stylistic similarities to his opponent, but while he’s willing to strike he’s generally a bit less potent on the feet than Chairez. He too does his best work on the mat, where he’s secured nine submission wins and is especially fond of armbars. However, Like Chairez, he’s not a particularly good wrestler and his overall defence remains less convincing than his offense.

This should be a competitive fight, but I think there’s more upside to Chairez and so I favor him to find a 2nd round submission finish.

Pick: Edgar Chairez wins by submission in Rd2.

Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

Imanol Rodriguez debuts with a 6‑0 record after earning his contract via the Contender Series. He’ll be going up against Kevin Borjas, who has only mustered a 1-3 record in the Octagon so far.

The 26-year-old Rodriguez made an impact on the regional scene as a fast, compact boxer who dishes out impactful, quick-fire combinations, working well to the head and body. Five of his six wins have come by punches, and while striking is his main weapon, he’s shown enough grappling ability to also pick up a submission win.

Borjas hasn’t found much success in the UFC yet, but he’s an active, pressure-heavy striker with good cardio. He uses that to push a high pace and blends in some good knee strikes in with his boxing, but the knockout power he demonstrated on the regional scene hasn’t carried over to the Octagon yet. He’s also durable, but can lean on that too much and eat unnecessary strikes.

I think this one could go the distance, and that will test Rodriguez’s cardio given that he’s never been beyond the 2nd round before. Still, he appears to be the quicker, sharper boxer and has better defence, so I think he’ll do enough to win at last two rounds and emerge with his hand raised.

Pick: Imanol Rodriguez wins by decision.

Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco

Santiago Luna enters his second UFC bout after a first‑round knockout in his debut last year, and will now take on Angel Pacheco, who lost by decision in his first fight for the promotion.



The 21-year-old ‘Border Boy’ Luna is a perfect 7-0 in his career to date, with all his wins having come inside the distance. He’s shown genuine finishing ability with powerful hands that have sat down several opponents, a solid array of takedowns, and a slick rear‑naked choke that accounts for his four submission victories. He’s still developing and can be a bit open defensively, but his athleticism and well‑rounded game stand out for his age.

The 34-year-old Pacheco earned his UFC contract despite losing on the Contender Series after making a good impression in a back-and-forth battle. His official debut also ended in a decision loss though, and he’s been inactive for nearly two years since. He’s an aggressive brawler with genuine power, but he relies heavily on his toughness and is very hittable, even though he’s never been stopped.

Luna appears to holds all the aces here, and with Pacheco’s defensive gaps and willingness to trade, Luna should be able to find his way to a 2nd round TKO victory. a second‑round TKO.

Pick: Santiago Luna wins by TKO in Rd2.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Ryan Gandra vs. José Daniel Medina
Ailín Pérez vs. Macy Chiasson
Cristian Quiñonez vs. Kris Moutinho
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes
Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaitė
Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall
Damian Pinas vs. Wesley Schultz