UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown takes place tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
Gabriel Bonfim enters the main event with a 5-1 UFC record so far and will be going up against Randy Brown, who has won four of his last five bouts, including a knockout victory in his most recent outing.
At 28-years-old, Bonfim has compiled a strong 18-1 record so far and is coming off his highest-profile win so far over veteran star Stephen Thompson. It’s not been all plain-sailing though as he’s only a couple of years removed from a TKO loss against Nicolas Dalby, though even in that fight he’d actually come close to finishing him several times during a dominant performance, only to burn through his energy reserves and get punished for it. Since then, Bonfim has rebounded strongly though with three wins in a row. A well-rounded fighter, Bonfim combines technically sound kickboxing with solid wrestling, but his greatest weapon is his grappling, with 13 of his 17 career wins have come by submission.
The 34-year-old Brown The rangy welterweight who will enjoy a two-inch height and six-inch reach advantage here. Brown utilizes those long limbs to make the most of his kickboxing from range, together with knees at closer quarters, and has produced knockout wins over tough opponents like the aforementioned Dalby, Muslim Salikhov, and Bryan Barberena. Brown can also mix in takedowns and has a small handful of submission victories, but he’s been stopped by both strikes and submissions twice apiece during his nine-year UFC tenure.
Brown’s length and punching power could give opponent some problems here, but Bonfim’s superior grappling looks to be the difference-maker here and I think he’ll be able to bring the fight to the mat and lock in a submission finish sometime in the second round.
Pick: Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in Rd2.
Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Matt Schnell surfaced from a three-fight plunge in April with a hard-fought decision victory, and now he’s set to face Joseph Morales, who is fresh off winning the TUF 33 flyweight tournament a couple of months ago.
Schnell has struggled to find consistency during his time in the UFC, going 7-7 (+1nc). At 35, he remains a fighter who likes to bring the fight to his opponent wherever the action goes. He pushes forward with combinations and decent power on the feet, but he’s a bigger finishing threat on the mat, where his offensive grappling game has earned him nine submission wins. Schnell has proven capable of winning on the scorecards too, but on the other hand eight of his nine career losses have come inside the distance. Fives of those losses came via strikes, including back-to-back KO defeats not so long ago, highlighting the risks of undertaking an aggressive game-plan with a questionable chin.
The 31-year-old Morales had a brief UFC stint back in 2017–2018, going 1-2 before being released. He then rebuilt momentum on the regional circuit and made his way back to the big stage via TUF 33. Like Schnell, Morales is competent on the feet but most dangerous on the ground, with seven submission finishes to his name. His recent wins have showcased his ability to lock in the triangle choke from his back, but he’s also proven effective with rear-naked chokes in the past too. Good cardio and composure have also given him the ability to edge out decisions at times too.
At this stage in their careers Morales appears the more reliable fighter, being more durable, methodical, and less prone to risky defensive lapses, and I think that’ll lead him to a submission stoppage in the 2nd round.
Pick: Joseph Morales wins by submission in Rd2.
Muslim Salikhov vs. Uroš Medić
Muslim Salikhov rides into this match-up on a three-fight winning streak, while Uros Medic is coming off a 63-second knockout win.
Despite now being 41-years-old, Salikhov has not only been been winning fights, but also finishing them in style as he’s coming off back-to-back 1st round KO’s. Nicknamed “The King of Kung Fu”, doesn’t cut a particularly imposing figure, but he wields a wide arsenal of striking techniques and is also calculated in his approach. Salikhov blends accurate fundamentals with occasional spinning attacks that have proven to be effective, including two highlight-reel wheel-kick finishes inside the Octagon. He also has an underrated wrestling game to fall back on when needed. Age has forced him to be more measured with his output though, and questions about his durability have surfaced, particularly after being KO’d by Randy Brown last year.
At 32-years-old Medic has built a reputation as an all-action fighter who has never gone to the scorecards in his 11-3 career. A high-volume kickboxer, Medic combines accuracy with fight-ending power, and like Salikhov, he isn’t shy about throwing spinning techniques. Nine of his wins have come by strikes, but he does have a couple of submission finishes too. Medic doesn’t have the best takedown defense though and has been finished a couple of times by submission.
The crafty veteran Salikhov is always a threat, but I think the younger Medic’s higher volume, hard-hitting striking will win out here for a 2nd round TKO stoppage.
Pick: Uros Medic wins by TKO in Rd2.
Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim
Chris Padilla has won all three of his UFC fights to date, while Ismael Bonfim is looking to improve on his 2-2 run.
Padilla’s path to the promotion wasn’t always a sure thing. He initially burst onto the regional scene with seven straight wins, only to stumble with six losses in his next nine fights. A three-fight rebound earned him his UFC shot, and since then the 30-year-old has made the most of it. Padilla will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage here, and he’s already shown how dangerous his long limbs can be, most notably when he landed a brutal elbow against Rhong Zu that forced a doctor’s stoppage. Still, striking isn’t his strongest suit and Padilla prefers to close the distance, drag opponents to the mat, and hunt for finishes through ground-and-pound or submissions.
Unlike his brother who headlines this card, Ismael Bonfim’s skill-set is more striking orientated, with his boxing background evident in his fast hands, mindful defense and respectable power. His toughness was on display in his last fight against Nazim Sadykhov, where he absorbed a head kick before the resulting cut eventually forced a doctor’s stoppage. Bonfim has steadily improved his wrestling and owns a handful of submission victories too, but defensive lapses on the mat remain a concern, with four of his five career losses having come via submission.
I think Bonfim has the better wrestling here, which will help him to keep the fight standing in order to make the most of his striking advantage, leading to a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Ismael Bonfim wins by decision.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio
Christian Leroy Duncan is riding back-to-back wins so far in 2025, while Marco Tulio has made a solid start to his UFC career with two TKO victories.
The 30-year-old Duncan is a dynamic striker who has found a good balance between creativity and accuracy. His highlight reel is impressive, including his spinning back elbow KO of Eryk Anders just a couple of months ago. While that technique has increasingly become a trend in MMA lately, Duncan has frequently had success with elbows in his fights, as well as other stunning finishes via spinning heel kicks and flying knees. Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Duncan can also wrestle too. Duncan is less convincing when he’s forced onto the back foot though, and he can leave gaps defensively when he’s on the offensive.
Tulio earned his UFC contract after consecutive Contender Series wins in 2023 and 2024, and has since extended his record to 14-1 with two finishes in the Octagon. Despite giving up two inches in height and five inches in reach here, the 31-year-old Tulio is also a big threat on the feet with his explosive Muay Thai striking that has so far amassed 10 T(KO) victories, including a spinning back kick finish during his Contender Series run. Durable and aggressive, Tulio can absorb punishment, but he tends to take more shots than he should. He has also registered a submission win, but in general he likes to keep fights standing, despite not having the most convincing takedown defense.
With so much offensive weaponry on display this should be an entertaining fight, but I feel Duncan’s size advantage and more creative offense, in addition to being able to offer up the distraction of a takedown threat will help him edge out the action to win by decision.
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers
Ricky Simón vs. Raoni Barcelos
Adrian Yañez vs. Cristian Quiñónez
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis
Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes
Jackson McVey vs. Robert Valentin
