MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano takes place tomorrow night, May 16th in Los Angeles on Netflix and we’ve got our predictions for all the main card fights below.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
10 years after she left the UFC following back-to-back title defeats, former bantamweight superstar Ronda Rousey comes out of retirement to fight Gina Carano, the first ever genuine WMMA star who hasn’t fought in 17 years since her first career loss to Cris Cyborg in 2009.
Rousey was a one-of-a-kind superstar in the UFC who not only single-handedly put women’s MMA on the map during an unbeaten run as bantamweight champion, but also became a global icon in the process. Her reign of dominance ended badly though back in 2009 after one-sided KO and TKO losses to Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes saw her walk away from the sport. A decade later it was a real surprise when the 39-year-old Rousey announced her comeback given that not so long ago she’d confessed to retiring from the sport due to having had a long history of concussions dating back as far as her Olympic bronze medal judo days, and also suffered from problems with her depth perception and vision when being hit. It has to be stressed that there’s more to the story than that though as her undercooked and unconvincing boxing game just didn’t hold up once she started faced with more proven striking technicians in the latter stages of her MMA career. What was never in doubt though was her judo and BJJ prowess, which enabled her to almost effortlessly throw her opponents to the mat and in the blink of an eye seamlessly secure her signature armbar submission that led to nine first round finishes. Those moves are ingrained in the fabric of who Rousey is since she was a child, and so there’s little doubt that she can still pull them off with ease even at this late stage in her career.
Carano was the first female MMA fighter to possess the star power necessary to really start to get fans interested in seeing women compete. There’s no doubt that her looks and seemingly adorable personality were a big part in that, but she was a capable fighter too. Carano is a steady muay thai striker with respectable technique, including solid kicks, but her ground game is more limited. Carano was able to get the better of a number of other early WMMA pioneers during her 7-1 career, but truth be told she was often paired up with undersized opponents, and even then only finished three by strikes. She then quickly came off second-best in a high-profile fight against Cris Cyborg and then left the sport behind after being lured over to Hollywood to star in big budget movies. Now she’s finally returned, but at 44-years-old it’s a big ask just to get back into fight shape, never mind shake off a 17-year retirement.
It’s clear that the hugely disappointing end to Rousey’s meteoric rise to superstardom in the UFC has haunted her since, and this fight looks like her way to craft a happier ending to her MMA story. Stylistically it’s a fight that suits her perfectly since Carano was never much of a grappler even in her prime and so ‘Rowdy’s’ tried-and-tested judo-throw to armbar combo looks almost inevitable here.
Prediction: Ronda Rousey to win by submission (armbar) in Rd1.
Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
Former UFC veterans Nate Diaz and Mike Perry have both been plying their trade in other combat sport disciplines in recent years, but now return for a five-round fight in the co-main event of Saturday night’s Netflix show.
The 41-year-old Diaz had mixed results at the tail-end of his UFC run, but did end with a submission win over Tony Ferguson in 2022. After that he was lured over to lucrative pro-boxing bouts, where he lost by decision to Jake Paul, before earning a majority decision victory over Jorge Masvidal. The tough-as-nails Diaz will have a 2″ height and 5″ reach advantage here and employs a high-volume boxing style. He’s never been a power puncher, but even at this age and stage in his career he still has the cardio to maintain a high output for the full five rounds, and despite being prone to cuts is extremely durable. Diaz has always been at his best when he utilizes his jiu-jitsu game though as he’s very assured on the mat and has 12 submission wins, but he doesn’t have much of a wrestling game.
The 34-year-old Perry is a brawler who spilled out of the UFC in 2021 after losing seven of his last 10 fights there. Perry has been able to salvage his career though after turning to bareknuckle boxing, which has proven to be a good match for his fearless, hard-headed style, going 6-0, including wins over respected UFC veterans like Luke Rockhold, Michael ‘Venom’ Page, Eddie Alvarez, Thiago Alves and Jeremy Stephens. There’s not much nuance to his striking game, but he has heavy-handed boxing and fights with savage intensity.
If Diaz can get this fight to the mat then his BJJ offers him a clear path to victory, but he never backs down from a fist-fight and I think that could be his undoing as Perry’s aggression and killer instinct leads him to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Prediction: Mike Perry to win by TKO in Rd2.
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
Former UFC heavyweight champion turned pro-boxer Francis Ngannou brings more star power to this weekend’s event and will be going up against Philipe Lins, who is on a four-fight winning streak coming into this fight.
The 39-year-old Ngannou had just defended his UFC heavyweight title for the first time in 2022 when he opted to leave the promotion to pursue other opportunities. He then went on to land a money-spinning boxing match against Tyson Fury, and gave the star a major scare when he knocked him down early in the fight, only to then lose the bout via a controversial split-decision verdict. However, he was then KO’d by Anthony Joshua in a one-sided boxing bout in 2024, and has since returned to MMA with a 1st round KO win in the PFL promotion last year. ‘The Predator’ is a big physical specimen at heavyweight who will hold a 3″ height and 4″ reach advantage over Lins on Saturday night. Ngannou has always had a boxing focus that’s been enhanced greatly by the natural thunderous power in his hands. He tends to fight at a measured pace, though in the past there’s been times that he’s just charged forward quite crudely looking for a finish. Training to fight some of boxing’s elite will have helped reign that in a bit though, and Ngannou also developed some capable wrestling during his MMA run.
A former PFL heavyweight tournament winner, the 40-year-old Lins was surprisingly not given a new contract by the UFC back in early 2024, despite having won his last four fights in the promotion at 205lbs, with the main reason cited being a history of fight call-offs due to medical issues. Lins is a solidly capable striker who had good speed at light-heavyweight, though less so at heavyweight. He has respectable power, but isn’t really a one-punch finisher and so is likely to be looking to draw Ngannou into a longer fight here. There has been some question marks over his durability though, with four losses via strikes on his record. He has never been submitted though and has four wins via tap-out.
I’d expect Ngannou to be too much for Lins here, with his crushing power leading to a 1st round KO victory.
Prediction: Francis Ngannou to win by KO in Rd1.
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
A former KSW featherweight and lightweight champion, Salahdine Parnasse has now left the promotion to pursue this new opportunity to fight for MVP MMA on Netflix, where he’ll take on Kenneth Cross, who has compiled a 17-4 record on the regional scene.
The 28-year-old Parnasse holds a 22-2 career record and is coming off his most notable win to date, TKO’ing former UFC, Bellator and PFL fighter Marcin Held back in January. He’s a good fighter who has turned down opportunities to fight in the UFC in the past due to being well paid as a leading KSW fighter. Parnasse is a well-rounded fighter who has a versatile mix of boxing and kicks, and has had a notable uptick in his finishing rate on the feet in recent years, with his five latest wins all coming via strikes. Parnasse is also a good grappler too though, with seven submission wins to his name.
The 31-year-old Cross has been on a solid campaigner on the regional circuit, but hasn’t quite been able to take the next step from there. He did actually win on the UFC’s Contender Series back in 2020, but wasn’t picked up, and a few years later he lost in his one and only fight in the Bellator promotion. Cross is a capable, durable fighter with a solid finishing record that includes 8 wins via strikes and 6 by submission from 17 career victories overall. However, the glaring weakness is that all four of his losses have come via submission.
Parnasse looks ready to take a step up in his career and has the better all-round game here, so I’ll take him to win by a second-round submission.
Prediction: Salahdine Parnasse to win by submission in Rd2.
Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne
Former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos returns to action for the first time in two years to open Saturday night’s main card against former Olympic karate gold medalist Robelis Despaigne, who comes into this fight after going 7-0 in Karate Combat.
The 42-year-old dos Santos was one of the leading heavyweights in the UFC for a number of years thanks to his well-versed striking game that was built around his sturdy technical boxing. He was able to finish the likes of Cain Velasquez, Frank Mir, Mark Hunt and Derrick Lewis during his prime years, but durability became a real problem later on, being finished by strikes in his last four UFC fights. He did go on to pick up a couple of wins over other aging veterans Fabricio Werdum and Alan Belcher in bareknuckle MMA, but is now returning from a two-year absence.
The 37-year-old Despaigne is a huge, but athletic heavyweight who even against dos Santos will enjoy a 3″ height and sizeable 7″ reach advantage. Despaigne is a karate specialist and that proved to be a problem when he made it to the UFC a couple of years ago as fighters soon realized he had no ground game at all and took full advantage of that. When he’s allowed to strike he’s very dangerous though with most of his wins coming very quickly due to his size, speed and power, but he can be quite careless and has suspect cardio.
Dos Santos is certainly capable of just taking Despaigne down and beating him there, but he’s always been a striker at heart and I suspect he’ll want to test his boxing against the bigger man’s Karate here. JDS is cleaner and more methodical with his work, but I’m not confident in his weakened chin at this age against Despaigne’s firepower and so will take ‘Bad Boy’ to win by 1st round TKO.
Prediction: Robelis Despaigne to win by TKO in Rd1.
