UFC 297 takes place tomorrow night in Toronto, Canada and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
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Main Card
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis
Dricus du Plessis hit a raw nerve last month when he responded to Sean Strickland’s trash-talk by taunting him about his troubled childhood and it even led to a brief physical scuffle between the two at UFC 296. Now a month later they get to settle their differences the old fashioned way in the Octagon.
The 32-year-old Strickland registered one of the biggest upset wins in UFC history in 2023 when he beat Israel Adesanya by unanimous decision to become the new middleweight champion. While he’s never been known for his finishing power, Strickland actually dropped Adesanya in the opening round and came close to finishing him, and he struggled to get back into the fight as the rounds went on, appearing to struggle with the challenger’s pressure, unorthodox ‘Philly Shell’ style of defense and counters.
Du Plessis presents a completely different style, but Strickland’s approach won’t change. He always rigidly sticks to his focus on boxing fundamentals and in particular a well-versed jab, while trying to take the sting out of his opponents work with his guard, rolls and parries. Together with his toughness and good cardio that enables him to build momentum as the fight goes on to outlast and break opponents in the long run.
The 30-year-old du Plessis should present the exact opposite of Adesanya’s overly-tentative approach last year as he’s all-action fighter who thrives on being an offensively-minded powerhouse. His powerful, high-volume striking can be quite chaotic and unrefined, but yet it’s still proven to be effective and can simply become to much for his opponents to deal with. However, he’s not just a one-trick pony as he can also work for takedowns and has a very capable submission game on the mat.
With 19 victories inside the distance from 20 career wins split almost evenly between submissions and strikes, du Plessis is a proven finisher, but the potential downside to his high-octane style is that he can appear to be running low on gas at times and he’s never been five-rounds before. That could play into strickland’s hands and makes for an intriguingly balanced fight. However, I do feel that du Plessis’ all-guns-blazing approach from all angles in the early rounds can overwhelm the champion’s style of defense, and with his power it’ll be tough for Strickland to tough it out, leading to a third round TKO finish.
Pick: Dricus du Plessis Wins by TKO in Rd3
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Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Long-reigning bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes retired last year and now Raquel Pennington’s five-fight winning streak leads her to a shot at the vacant title against Mayra Bueno Silva, who is unbeaten in her last four bouts.
The 35-year-old Pennington actually fought Nunes for the belt back in 2018 and the action was so one-sided that she tried to quit on her stool before the final round. However, she’s shown her mental resolve by since going on a new winning streak that includes wins over other notable 135lb’ers like Ketlen Vieira, Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson. She remains a fighter who likes to utilize her boxing ability. She doesn’t have much in the way of stopping power, but is technically sound and tough, and these days also make use of the clinch frequently and can wrestle at times too if required.
While Pennington’s fought many top bantamweight contenders over the years, the 32-year-old Silva doesn’t have the same level of competition and experience. In fact, except for a notable win over Holly Holm via submission last time out (that was later amended to a no-contest after testing positive for unapproved ADHD medication), Silva doesn’t actually hold a win over any currently ranked UFC fighter. Still, Silva has shown herself to be a good grappler with four wins via submission in the Octagon so far far and she’s been working to improve her striking too.
Still, I expect Pennington to have the edge on the feet and I think Silva will find it challenging to get the veteran to the mat, leading ‘Rocky’ to use her boxing and grinding clinch-work to eek out a decision win and lift the title.
Pick: Raquel Pennington wins by decision
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Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
A one-sided loss to Ian Garry last time out keeps Neil Magny stuck in a cycle of ‘win-one, lose-one’ as he now prepares to fight former Contender Series recruit Mike Malott, who has won all three of his fights in the UFC so far via finishes.
The 36-year-old Magny is a jack-of-all-trades veteran, but he just couldn’t get going at all against Garry in his last fight. He’s a lanky welterweight and will hold a 2″ height and 7″ reach advantage over Malott to help keep the striking action at range, while in close he’ll seek clinch opportunities and use wrestling too in order to wear on his opponent and grind out a win on the scorecards. Magny can be taken down too though and has been submitted a few times in the past.
The 32-year-old Malott is far less experienced than Magny, but he still a fairly well-rounded fighter who doesn’t present any glaring weaknesses for the veteran to exploit. Malott is an assured striker with good movement and solid power, while he can wrestle too and has been making good use of submissions in recent years.
This is a big step up in competition for Malott, but with the Canadian fans behind him and Magny perhaps having shown some signs that he’s starting to fade a little, I’ll take him to get the better of the striking action and land the more hurtful blows here to win by decision.
Pick: Mike Malott wins by decision.
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Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Chris Curtis only mustered a loss and a no-contest last year and so will be looking for better things in 2024 as he takes on Marc-Andre Barriault, who is coming in off back-to-back wins.
A veteran of over 40-fights, the 36-year-old Curtis joined the UFC relatively late in his career but hasn’t done too badly so far. He’s a crafty boxer with capable counter-striking ability and despite being a bit undersized at 185lbs has has shown off significant power with finishes over the likes of Brendan Allen, Joaquin Buckley and Phil Hawes during his UFC run so far. He’s hittable, but is durable and rolls with the punches well, while he also has good cardio and takedown defense.
Barriault is a naturally bigger middleweight than Curtis who tends to adopt a brute-force striking style, wading in with solid punches and sturdy clinch-work. He has a good chin and despite his size can maintain his cardio over three rounds.
Despite being the smaller of the two I think Curtis has more craft and guile on the feet here, which will help him gain the upper-hand to emerge victorious on the scorecards.
Pick: Chris Curtis wins by decision.
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Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
Max Holloway ended Arnold Allen’s 10-fight winning streak last year and now Allen faces another tough opponent in the undefeated Movsar Evloev, who has gone 7-0 in the UFC so far.
Needless to say these are two very talented featherweights. The 29-year-old Allen has a disciplined technical kickboxing style, fighting at a measured pace and picking his shots nicely on the outside with solid fundamentals and good distance management. However, against Dan Hooker a couple of years ago he went all-out on the offensive and looked impressive en-route to a 1st round TKO victory, and it’s also worth noting he has shown some surprisingly solid offensive wrestling for a UK fighter at times too, so he is a fighter with a lot to offer.
The 29-year-old Evloev is a well-rounded fighter who particularly excels in the wrestling department with strong takedowns, solid top control and sturdy takedown defense and get-ups. He can also has respectable striking and has good volume, but whether on the feet or the mat he’s proven to be comfortable aiming for a win on points rather than a big finish, and his good cardio backs him up in that regard.
I expect this to be quite a tactical battle between two well-matched fighters and in the end I feel that Evloev’s well-timed takedowns could be what helps him win otherwise closely contested rounds to earn a narrow decision win.
Pick: Movsar Evloev wins by decision.
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Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson
Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras
Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
