UFC 319 takes place tomorrow night in Chicago and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus du Plessis successfully defended his middleweight title for the second time in February, beating Sean Strickland in their rematch while extending his UFC win streak to nine. Now, he faces arguably his toughest test yet: the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev, who boasts a 14-0 record and is coming off a dominant first-round submission victory over Robert Whittaker last October.

The 31-year-old du Plessis is a physical powerhouse whose raw, aggressive striking style has surprisingly got the better more polished opponents like Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, and Robert Whittaker in recent years. Rather than relying on finesse or tactical setups, DDP opts for a brute-force approach, surging forward with explosive flurries of punches, while occasionally mixing in a dangerous high kick. He’s also capable of bundling opponents to the canvas and threatening with a respectable submission game, though his takedown defense isn’t bullet-proof. Despite his muscular frame and inefficient technique he’s shown surprising endurance and an ability to push through fatigue, enabling him to maintain his offensive threat deep into fights on the occasions he can’t find a finish. His resilience and durability helps compensate for his defensive lapses.

The also 31-year-old Chimaev burst onto the UFC scene in 2020 with a trio of dominant wins in under a month that suggested he was a special talent and propelled him to stardom. Health setbacks and injuries have held him back in the years since though, having had to take multiple long absences from the Octagon. Even so, he has managed to remain unbeaten in his five fights since, and though he had to dig deep to get decision wins over Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, his first-round finishes of Kevin Holland, Li Jingliang, and Robert Whittaker have solidified his status as one of the sport’s most feared fighters. Chimaev wrestling is exceptionally good and together with his uncommon strength enables him to essentially manhandle his opponents with ease and maintain strong top control, while he also works for submissions with ruthless efficiency. His striking isn’t on the same level, but he he has respectable technique and good power to keep things competitive. As well-rounded as he is, the one potential flaw he has is his cardio, with his early exertions often taking a visible toll on his energy levels on the rare occasion he can’t overwhelm his opponent to earn a fast finish, and he’s never fought beyond the third round before.

Chimaev is the more gifted and well-rounded fighter, but du Plessis has a champion’s mentality and has consistently defied expectations. If DDP can weather the early storm and force the fight into deeper waters, there’s a real chance he could gain the upper-hand. That being said, du Plessis has never faced a grappler with Chimaev’s intensity and skill, and so I’ll take Khamzat to get the fight where he wants it and lock in a first-round submission finish.

Pick: Khamzat Chimaev wins by submission in Rd1.

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico

17 fights into his career Lerone Murphy remains undefeated and now fights Aaron Pico, a former Bellator standout making his Octagon debut off-the-back of three consecutive victories.

The 34-year-old Murphy is an athletic striker with crisp and technical boxing that blends speed and precision, complimented by kicks and well-timed knees. He’ll also occasionally mix in takedowns and ground-and-pound, though so far submissions haven’t been a major part of his game. Murphy is composed and tactical in his approach, and so rather than being aggressive and going all-out for a finish he’ll often just look to outpoint his opponents, and he’s shown he has the conditioning to do so over five rounds when required.

A former Olympic wrestling alternate who also had boxing experience in his youth, Aaron Pico was considered a blue-chip prospect when he turned his attention to MMA and was instantly picked up by Bellator. His journey has had its ups and downs though as he suffered a submission loss in his 2017 debut, then showcased explosive knockout power in his next four fights, followed by consecutive KO and TKO defeats that cast doubt on his future. Since then, he’s rebounded strongly, winning nine of his last ten fights, including two recent TKO finishes. That being said, while the 28-year-old remains a very good that athlete with an exciting mix of potent boxing and wrestling, he’s not always been facing the toughest competition and his durability remains a concern. Still, the UFC clearly believes in his star potential, slotting him straight into a co-main event on a pay-per-view card.

Pico was originally being lined up to face the undefeated Movsar Evloev and is now facing another undefeated challenger instead, so he’s been thrown straight into the deep-end. If he can emerge victorious he could well become a star, but while Murphy may not be as hard-hitting or gifted in the wrestling department, he is still a good athlete in his own right, has proven to be very consistent and has good fight IQ, so I can see him turning this fight into a tactical striking battle that avoids unnecessary risks, which will enable him to win on the scorecards.

Pick: Lerone Murphy wins by decision.

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates

After suffering back-to-back defeats, Geoff Neal returned to the win column with a TKO win over Rafael dos Anjos last October, though only due to his opponent suffering a freak knee injury just 90 seconds into the bout. Next up he’ll fight Carlos Prates, whose decision loss to Ian Garry in April ended a four-fight winning start to his time in the octagon.

At 34, Neal remains one of the 170lb division’s most dangerous punchers, possessing knockout power in his hands, together with menacing head kicks, and that’s resulted in a history of finishing fights, with 10 of his 16 wins coming via strikes. While he’s also capable in the clinch and has solid takedown defense, Neal rarely initiates grappling exchanges, but when he does get top position, his ground-and-pound is punishing. Neal’s tendency to focus on power shots does become an issue when he’s facing more slick, technical strikers who can outland him with higher-volume combination work and pick out holes in his defense.

The 31-year-old Prates brings a wealth of striking experience, having balanced MMA with Muay Thai stints in Thailand and China for much of his career before joining the UFC. His early MMA career actually didn’t go according to plan, only mustering a 5-4 record, but he’s since found his rhythm, winning 14 of his last 15 before his loss to Garry. Prates is a versatile striker who uses all eight limbs with precision and power to good effect, with 16 of his 21 wins have come via KO or TKO. While his ground game is limited and he rarely threatens with submissions, his takedown defense is reliable enough to keep the fight upright.

Neal’s one-punch power means he’s always dangerous, but Prates is a heavy-hitter too, and with his more versatile and fluid striking arsenal I’ll say he gets the better of the action, which could lead to a stoppage win, but I’ll take him to win by decision.

Pick: Carlos Prates wins by decision.

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page


Jared Cannonier halted a two-fight losing skid in February with a TKO victory over Gregory Rodrigues and now fights Michael ‘Venom’ Page, who beat the previously undefeated Shara Magomedov on the scorecards last time out.

Cannonier did his best to fend off talk that he might be fading at 41-years-old by defeating Rodrigues, but he had to fight through adversity to do so as he was dropped twice in the opening round. To his credit Cannonier recovered and showed better endurance as the fight progressed to gain the upper-hand and deliver a fourth round finish. While Cannonier’s reflexes, volume and durability have inevitably started to dwindle with age, Cannonier remains a well conditioned athlete for his age, and still carries knockout power in his hands and can dish out punishing low kicks too. Cannonier does also have the option to mix in takedowns and has solid ground-and-pound on top.

The 38-year-old Page has made a solid transition from Bellator to the UFC, going 2–1 far. He’s a tall, lengthy middleweight who will have a 4″ height and 2.5″ reach advantage over Cannonier, and despite his age continues to be very fast and agile. Page is a very talented striker with a unique, creative style who likes to use his long limbs and footwork to keep the fight at range, luring his opponents into a false sense of security before unleashing explosive, pinpoint accurate attacks. His size, speed, timing and versatile striking arsenal mean he’s a puzzle few can solve on the feet, but his low output and vulnerability to leg kicks remain concerns, while he’s not the most well-versed on the mat.

Cannonier’s could find some success with leg kicks here, and it would be interesting to see what would happen if he threatened with takedowns too. I think he’ll have a hard time keeping track of the evasive Page at range though, and given that he doesn’t take shots as well as he used to I think ‘Venom’s’ fast offensive salvo’s will cause him problems. Page might not find a finish in the end, but I think he’ll win on the scorecards here.

Pick: Michael Page wins by decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Tim Elliott returns to the Octagon after an 18-month layoff after submitting his last opponent in the first round back in December 2023. Now he’ll open the main card of this even against former Rizin champ Kai Asakura, who was submitted by UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in his promotional debut late last year.

A former TUF winner, veteran campaigner Elliott was enjoying a strong run before his time out, going 5–2 since 2020. However, his recent inactivity is a concern given that he’s now 38-years-old, and Elliott himself admitted during fight week that he’s beginning to feel the wear and tear of aging, though retirement doesn’t appear to be on his mind. Elliott has an awkward and unorthadox style on the feet and lacks knockout power, but his unconventional movement, timing and angles can confuse his opponents at times, though his preference for keeping his hands low is risky. Elliott is certainly a more effective fighter on the mat though as his gritty wrestling, scrambles and opportunistic grappling makes him tricky to deal with.

There’s no shame in the 31-year-old Asakura having lost to dominant 125lb champ Alexandre Pantoja and he can still prove to be an exciting addition to the division. Asakura is an aggressive striker with good speed and knockout power in his punches, while he’s also a big threat with knee strike too. He’s also physically imposing for the weight class and will enjoy a 3-inch reach advantage in this matchup. While his defense isn’t airtight and he’s been finished before, Elliott’s lack of striking threat means that shouldn’t be a concern on this occasion. However, while Asakura is capable on the mat he will be keen to employ his takedown defense to try to minimize Elliott’s threat on the mat.

Elliott’s low guard and reliance on head movement and quirky movement to avoid strikes was always a risky strategy, but becomes even more-so now that he’s getting up there in years and is coming off a lengthy absence from competing. And I think Asakura’s speed, power and combination striking can exploit that, catching his opponent in the opening round to secure a 1st round TKO finish.

Pick: Kai Asakura wins by TKO in Rd1.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

King Green vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
Jéssica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev