UFC 321 takes place on Saturday in Abu Dhabi and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
Tom Aspinall will finally get a chance to make his first defense of the heavyweight title on Saturday when he goes up against Ciryl Gane, who has won his last two fights.
Aspinall has been eager to stay active, but Jon Jones’ unwillingness to defend the title against him left him limb until the champ decided to retire. The good news was that meant Aspinall was upgraded from Interim to undisputed champion, but the bad news is that it’s now 15 months since he last fought. Aspinall’s previous year-long lay-off in 2022 after a freak knee injury didn’t go badly though as he rattled off three straight first-round stoppages upon his return. Fast finishes are nothing knew to Aspinall though as all 15 of his wins have come inside the distance, with only one of his opponent making it out of the first round.
The 32-year-old Aspinall stands out in the division as not only is he big, but he’s also fast, athletic, technical and well-rounded. His sharp footwork sets up his heavy hands, honed from training boxing since he was just 7-years-old, including time spent with the famous Fury brothers. He mixes in kicks, knees, and elbows well too though, all with potential fight-ending power. He’s also a competent wrestler and with his father being a BJJ coach it’s no surprise that his years of training have paid off with three submission finishes so far. One lingering question is how his gas tank will hold up if he’s forced into the later rounds, since he’s so rarely had to fight beyond the first five minutes.
Gane’s rise through the division once mirrored Aspinall’s given that he was also a big, athletic and technical heavyweight who seized the interim title in 2021 while taking his career record to a perfect 10-0. Unlike Aspinall, he wasn’t a prolific finisher though, despite having power. Instead Gane preferred a more controlled, patient approach, using his speed, command of distance and clean technique, along with occasional flashes of offensive wrestling, to methodically pick apart his more unrefined opponents.
However, his weaknesses then came to light in his highest profile title fights as former teammate Francis Ngannou unexpectedly outwrestled him in 2022, and then Jon Jones took him down and submitted him swiftly in 2023. The 35-year-old Gane has since rebounded with two wins, but he’s still not regained the aura he had before his defeats due to lingering doubts about his defensive capabilities on the mat.
Gane is an interesting opponent for Aspinall as he matches up well with him physically and athletically, and his more cautious, measured striking style offers less opportunities for Aspinall to land his kill-shots. As such, Gane could be the fighter to drag Aspinall into the later rounds of a fight for the first time. That being said though, Aspinall’s superior finishing instincts will make him a constant threat on the feet, while perhaps more significantly, Gane’s questionable takedown defense gives him a big opportunity to show off his skill on the mat, and I do think he’ll take advantage of that to emerge with a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Tom Aspinall wins by submission in Rd2.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Zhang Weili vacating the strawweight title has lead to a new fight for the vacant belt as Virna Jandiroba looks to extend her five-fight winning streak in a rematch against Mackenzie Dern, who previously handed her a decision loss back in 2020.
Jandiroba is a former Invicta FC champion who has managed to overcome a mixed 3-3 start to her time in the UFC to deliver a consistent run of wins over the past three years. At 37, she’s one of the division’s veterans, but she’s still known for her toughness and grinding fighting style. While her striking remains limited, she compensates for that with effective takedowns, strong top control, and proven submission skills that have delivered 14 of her 22 career wins. That said, her finishing rate has slowed over time, with just one submission win in the past five years, while she only has a single career victory by strikes.
Dern entered the UFC in 2018 with plenty of hype given that she was already grabbing headlines as a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu star. She started well enough with a 7-1 run, but then faltered, winning only two of her next six before rebounding with back-to-back victories to now finally earn her first title shot. Her elite grappling has never been in doubt, but the rest of her MMA skill-set has struggled to adequately support that. Weak wrestling in particular has often prevented her from bringing fights into her comfort zone. And adding to that problem, her striking has often been unconvincing due to struggles levelling up her speed, technique and fluidity, and so she’s sometimes resorted to just leaning on her mental toughness to engage in wild brawls and absorbed unnecessary damage. The 32-year-old has acknowledged those flaws and gradually shown at least some signs of improvement, but it’s still an area of her game that is very much a work-in-progress.
Their first meeting was competitive, and this rematch should be too. Both women remain most dangerous on the ground, with Jandiroba retaining the wrestling edge and Dern still having the superior submission arsenal. There’s every chance that could lead to the action stalling on the mat though, and as such it may lead to this fight playing out on the feet instead. While neither fighter is a standout striker, Dern has made modest progress since their last clash, which could be enough against Jandiroba, who doesn’t have the power to punish her or the technical finesse and speed to pick her apart. I’ll take Dern to win another close decision.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern wins by decision.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Umar Nurmagomedov’s perfect unbeaten record came to an end in January when he was beaten current champion Merab Dvalishvili. Now he looks to rebound against Mario Bautista, who enters the matchup riding an impressive eight-fight unbeaten streak.
Not many fighters get to amass an 18-fight winning streak, but even so Nurmagomedov still has the weight of expectation on his shoulders given that his cousin Khabib and brother Usman have both won major titles with the UFC and Bellator respectively in the past. At 29-years-old that remains an achievable goal though given that his well-rounded skill-set ensure he’s still firmly among the division’s best fighters. On the feet, Nurmagomedov has a distinctive style that relies on speed, good range management and a versatile kicking arsenal to strike without taking many in return. Maintaining a safe distance also makes him difficult to take down, but true to his family name, he’s also a very capable wrestler when he decides to dart in on a takedown attempt, and he has assured grappling to go along with it. And in fact submissions clearly remain his most likely route to a finish, accounting for seven of his 18 victories.
The 32-year-old Bautista has steadily built momentum with wins over notable names like Patchy Mix, Jose Aldo, and Ricky Simon, but is still only ranked No.8 in the 135lb rankings. He’s a durable, well-rounded fighter who makes his mark with pace and pressure rather than raw finishing power, having registered just three career TKOs, the last of which came back in 2020. Buatista’s volume, strong clinch-work and willingness to mix in takedowns can make life difficult for his opponents though, and he’ll look for ground-and-pound opportunities and a capable submission threat on the mat. His takedown defense, however, remains a vulnerability, though he’s generally proven tough to put away.
Bautista’’s best asset here will be his pressure and industry wherever the fight goes, but technically Nurmagomedov appears to hold the edge in most major areas. As such I believe Nurmagomedov will be able to execute his kicking game from range and mix in the occasional timely takedowns to win rounds and earn a decision victory.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by decision.
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Alexander Volkov returns to action after coming out on the wrong end of a split-decision verdict against Ciryl Gane, which snapped his four-fight winning streak. Standing across from him will be Jailton Almeida, who enters the bout off the back of two victories.
A mainstay of the heavyweight division for almost a decade, the 36-year-old Volkov has had some big wins over the years, but has had a habit of falling just short of fighting his way to a title shot. A towering presence in the division at 6’7” with an 80-inch reach, Volkov has also sensibly added weight to his frame over the years to be become more impactful. Volkov isn’t the quickest, but he uses his frame well with a disciplined kickboxing style from range that deploys his straight punches and kicks effectively to maintain distance and gradually wear down his opponent. While most of his 24 finishes via strikes have come in the later rounds, Volkov does have enough power to rack up the occasional early finish too. Over time, he’s also shored up his takedown defense, and while it’s certainly not his strongest suit he can operate on top on the mat if required.
The 34-year-old has made a good impact in the Octagon so far with an 8-1 run that includes seven finishes. Though he’ll give up three inches in height to Volkov, he’s an athletic heavyweight who moves well and uses his footwork to stay safe until he’s ready to close the distance. Striking isn’t his strongest suit, but it’s serviceable enough to set up his wrestling opportunities. Almeida has good takedown ability, maintains heavy top control, and is able to punish opponents with his ground-and-pound and submissions. As such, all but one of his 22 career wins have coming inside the distance, with 13 of those coming via submission.
Volkov has the striking advantage, but I do like Almeida’s repeated takedown attempts and stronger ground game to gain the upper-hand here, resulting in a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Jailton Almeida wins by decision
Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Aleksander Rakic has lost in his last three Octagon appearances, so he’s now under pressres to emerge victorious against the unbeaten Azamat Murzakanov, who boasts a perfect 15-0 record that includes five victories in the Octagon.
Not all that long ago, Rakic was one of the division’s rising contenders after compiling a 6-1 start to life in the promotion. However, an ACL tear in 2022 led to a TKO loss against Jan Blachowicz and kept him sidelined for nearly two years. Since returning, he’s suffered further defeats, including a TKO loss against former champion Jiri Prochazka and a decision defeat to future titleholder Magomed Ankalaev. A good sized light-heavyweight who was once known for his explosive finishing ability, Rakic now leans more on a patient kickboxing style from range, while mixing in takedowns to grind out a win on the scorecards, but it’s not been paying off for him in his recent fights.
The 36-year-old certainly doesn’t have the kind of appearance or stature that strikes fear into the hear of the light heavyweight at just 5’10” with a 71-inch reach with a somewhat pudgy build. That’ll mean he’s at a 7″ height and reach disadvantage on Saturday, but that won’t phase the compact Russian, who has proven he can overcome those obstacles in the past. Murzakanov is a patient but dangerous boxer who has a knack for finding ways to land clean shots against bigger opponents. His finishing record speaks for itself, with 11 knockouts in 15 wins, including four during his time in the UFC, the most memorable of which was a highlight-reel flying knee KO in his promotional debut. That being said, this match-up marks a significant step up in competition after his prior victories over the likes of Brendson Ribeiro, Alonzo Menifield, and Dustin Jacoby.
The size difference between these two will be a sight to behold on Saturday, but Murzakanov is someone who shouldn’t be underestimated, and with Rakic being out-of-sorts and devoid of confidence these days I think the Russian can use his crafty striking game to land big and deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov wins by TKO in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Ľudovít Klein vs. Mateusz Rębecki
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun-yong
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo
Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett
Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue
