UFC 328 takes place tomorrow night in New Jersey and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev is a perfect 15‑0 in his career as he now prepares for his first 185lb title defense against former champion Sean Strickland, who defeated Anthony Hernandez last time out to earn another title shot.
Chimaev’s title win over Dricus du Plessis showcased his elite wrestling as he easily landed multiple takedowns and enjoyed long periods of control on the mat. He didn’t find a finish on that occasion, but he has a history of quick stoppages victories by both ground‑and‑pound and submissions. His striking isn’t at the same level, but it’s still solid with respectable technique, power and he has a good chin too. That being said, talented fighters like Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman who have been able to keep the action upright for longer stretches have been competitive on the feet, and been able to chip away at his cardio. Despite that, even a high-level wrestler like Usman struggled to stop Khabib’s takedowns.
Strickland’s win over the in-form Hernandez again highlighted how difficult his deceptively simple style can be to deal with. Strickland is a jab‑driven, minimalist striker, whose finely-tuned ‘Philly Shell’ style defense enables him to frustrate opponents with parries and shoulder-rolls. Strickland doesn’t have natural finishing power, but his cardio and toughness enables him to wear down his opponents over time, paving the way for decision wins of late stoppages. Last time out he even added a rare knee to the midsection that was the catalyst for a TKO finish soon afterwards. Strickland can also wrestle and has never been submitted, but knee issues over the years have limited his willingness to use his wrestling.
If Strickland could keep this fight upright then there is a real reason he could wear down Khamzat over time as he’s done to others over the years. It’s hard to imagine that Khamzat won’t be able to take him down though and so I expect him to once again demonstrate his strong control on the mat. I think a submission finish is a real possibility, but I’ll say Strickland’s experience, durability and stubborn refusal to quit will lead to Khamzat settling for a dominant decision win.
Pick: Khamzat Chimaev wins by decision.
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Joshua Van is on a six-fight winning streak as he now makes his first flyweight title defense against Tatsuro Taira, who went 2–0 last year.
Van’s title win came after Alexandre Pantoja suffered a freak injury just 26 seconds into their title fight, so there’s an argument to be made that he hasn’t fully legitimized his title credentials just yet. However, there’s no doubt that his five‑fight winning streak before-hand showed that he’s a very talented fighter. The 24-year-old Van is a fast, athletic striker with very good technical boxing and the ability to increase his volume and intensity as the fight goes on, while still maintaining his accuracy. Meanwhile his wrestling has shown signs of improving, but his striking is still his main asset, so he’ll depend on takedown defense to keep this one on the feet.
Taira comes into this fight with an 8–1 UFC record and his biggest win to date under his belt, having TKO’d former champ Brandon Moreno. The 26-year-old is the bigger fighter here with a 2″ height and 5″ reach advantage on his side. Like Van he is athletic and has a good level of precision to his work, but stylistically he’s more of a patient, calculated kickboxer rather than a volume puncher. Meanwhile, he’s the more complete fighter overall as he has reliable takedowns, slick scrambling, and a proven submission game that’s delivered eight finishes.
I do like Van’s boxing and higher output in the striking exchanges here, but I feel Taira’s stronger ground game could be decisive in the end, enabling him to get takedowns and work his way to a 2nd round submission finish.
Pick: Tatsuro Taira wins by submission in Rd2.
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
No.2 ranked heavyweight Alexander Volkov has won five out of his last six bouts, while the No.4 placed Waldo Cortes‑Acosta comes in off three straight stoppage victories.
Volkov has been on the fringes of title contention more than once in his UFC run, and came very close recently before a split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane set him back. He’s since claimed a narrow split-decision win over Jailton Almeida last time out, but truth be told he spent long spells of that fight being controlled on the mat only for his opponent to be punished by the judges for his lack of offense. At 37-years-old, Volkov is still a sound technical kickboxer who makes the most of his tall 6ft 7″ frame and 80″ reach advantage to dish out a steady diet of straight punches down the pipe and solid kicks from range, while having solid defensive fundamentals. Bulking up in recent years to draw close to the heavyweight limit has added more impact to his strikes, but he’s still most effective wearing opponents down over a few rounds. Meanwhile, his offensive wrestling and takedown defense is functional, but he can struggle to get up if he’s grounded.
The 34-year-old Cortes‑Acosta was originally a baseball player before switching to MMA around 10 years ago. After finding his way to the UFC he’s has rapidly built a 10–2 record in the Octagon in the space of a few years. Cortes-Acosta doesn’t have a wide range of tools at his disposal, but makes good use of his athleticism and clean boxing fundamentals. His active jab is by far his most utilized weapon, and he has good speed and footwork, together with being solidly durable. Initially his wins were all coming via outworking his opponents to a decision, but as he’s got more comfortable he’s started to sit down more on his punches and discover his power, leading to a number of finishes via strikes.
Cortes-Acosta has the speed advantage here and good punching power, but I think Volkov’s well-honed kickboxing ability from range will enable him to get the better of the striking battle over three rounds to secure a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Alexander Volkov wins by decision.
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
Sean Brady’s TKO defeat last November brought to a halt a three-fight winning run. Now he squares up to Joaquin Buckley, whose own six-fight winning streak was ended via a decision loss last summer.
The 33-year-old Brady is 8–2 in the UFC, including wins over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Kelvin Gastelum and Michael Chiesa. He’s a physically strong fighter with good endurance who has a good wrestling game to reliably get the fight to the mat and bring into play his skilled grappling, with good back takes and a string of submisison wins at the UFC level. His striking is functional but he lacks speed and power, and both of his losses came by TKO. He can also transition from striking to good clinch-work though.
The 32-year-old Buckley was a dangerous, but inconsistent fighter earlier in his UFC run, but has gone on to put together a very solid 6–1 run over the past three years, beating established veterans like Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque along the way. He’s a muscular, dynamic and explosive striker with genuine knockout power that’s delivered 15 finishes from 21 career victories. Over time he’s improved his pacing, striking discipline and even added some capable offensive wrestling into the mix too. That being said, Kamaru Usman was able to comfortably outwrestle him last time out, and while he’s a big threat on the feet, he has been T(KO)’d four times.
Faster, harder hitting strikers can be a problem for Brady, but after being TKO’d last time out I’d expect him to be looking to get Buckley down quickly here, and from there I’d expect him to be firmly in the driving seat and work his way to a submission in the second round.
Pick: Sean Brady wins by submission in Rd2.
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
King Green opens up the main card after winning his last two fights, while Jeremy Stephens returned to the UFC after a long absence last year, but lost his comeback fight by decision.
At 39-years-old Green has proved he’s still capable of picking up some good results, including a good TKO victory over the much younger Daniel Zellhuber last time out. He’s a crafty, unorthodox striker with good boxing who relies on timing, counters, and defensive reads via the philly shell to outfox his opponents, but he can mix things up on the mat if he has to. Age is catching up to him though, and even a small erosion in speed, reflexes and durability can make a big difference for a fighter who requires split-second timing for his parries, shoulder rolls and head movement, which is reflected in the fact that four of his last five losses have now come via strikes.
Stephens will turn 40 later this month and has just one win in his last ten MMA fights. That doesn’t tell the full story though as during his time away from the UFC he did earn dirty‑boxing TKOs over former UFC veterans like Eddie Alvarez and Jimmy Rivera, as well as fighting Jose Aldo to a draw in pro-boxing. He’s still a tough, doggedly determined battler with capable boxing and notable power that’s delivered 19 finishes across 29 career wins. However, his UFC form has always been up and down, and in total he has 22 career losses. That’s not down to one specific exploitable weakness, but he can be bested both on the feet and on the mat by more technical fighters with more depth to their game, while he has been finished a few times by both strikes and submissions too.
Green’s baiting style is risky at this stage in his career, but I think he will be able to see Stephens power punches coming to steer clear of danger and land the better strikes over three rounds to claim a decision win.
Pick: Bobby Green wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz
Joel Álvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos
Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa
