UFC Fight Night 234 takes place this coming Saturday night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
After their October fight ended mid-way through the first round with a no-contest ruling due to an illegal knee from Magomed Ankalaev to the face of the grounded Johnny Walker, these two light-heavyweight contenders runs it back again in the first main event of the year.
Even though the fight ended relatively quickly there were some clues as to how this rematch might go. For instance, though he’s been trying to employ a more cautious approach in his fights lately, Walker had already thrown a spinning backfist and a flying knee (after appearing to pretend to be hurt by a body shot) against Ankalaev in the opening minutes of the bout. With a 3″ height and 7″ reach advantage that natural instinct to be dynamic and creative make Walker dangerous, but it’s also worth noting that Ankalaev wasn’t phased, and indeed actually used his opponent’s missed flying knee to initiate a successful takedown.
And I think that’s very likely to be Ankalaev’s approach again here. While he is certainly capable of adopting a counter-striking approach on the feet, there is less risk in capitalizing on the openings presented by Walker’s more reckless approach to clinch up or take him down in order to stifle his offense and wear him down with periods of control.
Ankalaev was a bit overly eager to find a finish last time out and that cost him, but normally he’s a more patient, methodical fighter who is willing to embrace the grind, and I think he’ll do that in the rematch to ensure he emerges with a decision victory.
Pick: Magomed Ankalaev wins by decision.
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Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
After winning four fights in a row Matheus Nicolau suffered a KO loss last time out. Now he faces Manel Kape, who he narrowly beat on the scorecards back in March of 2021, but Kape has since gone on a four-fight winning run.
In their first fight some of Nicolau’s best moments came from takedowns and ground control, and so though he’s a solid, speedy counter-striker too the fact that he’s coming off a KO loss and has been finished on the feet other times in the past makes me think he’ll be even more eager to get the action on the mat this time around.
Kape is coming into this fight with more momentum this time around and he’ll have been encouraged by the fact that he did have some good spells of success in the first fight when he pressed the action and imposed his will, making the most of his skilled, hard-hitting striking.
With that in mind I think Kape will pressure Nicolau early this time, but he will have to be constantly mindful of the takedown threat. That makes it a close fight that could go either way, but I feel Kape can find success by keeping his opponent on the backfoot and making the most of his power advantage, leading to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Manel Kape wins by TKO in Rd2.
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Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
The 40-year-old Jim Miller has an eye on becoming the only fighter to compete at UFC 100, UFC 200 and the upcoming UFC 300 event in April, but first he has to get past the 35-year-old Gabriel Benitez, who earned a TKO victory last time out, but had last four out of five fights before that.
Miller’s late career form has exceeded expectations, going 4-1 in his last five fights while also demonstrating new-found KO power that’s led to three of his finishes during this run coming via strikes. When you consider he already has over 50 fights to his name and has also battled with lyme disease during his UFC run that’s undeniably impressive. While he’s been getting attention for his striking lately it’s still his savvy ground-game and submission prowess that’s been a key aspect of his game during his long career. still, while he makes the most of his attributes, Miller does still show signs of ageing and is understandably slower than he used to be (not that he ever was fast though!) and doesn’t have as much gas in the tank.
while he’s five years younger Benitez is no spring chicken himself and concerningly three of his four losses via strikes in his career have come in his last six Octagon outings. However, the caveat is that those three losses all came up 145lbs and he’s since moved back up to lightweight, with his latest TKO victory suggesting that was the right move. Benitez is a capable striker with nice kicks in particular which I think he’ll be looking to implement in this fight to chip away at Miller’s lead leg. He can also mix things up on the mat too, but I don’t think he’ll want to risk doing so against the veteran.
As heart-warming as it is to see Miller doing well, I do think his good fortune is likely to end soon. That being said, if he doesn’t fall in love with his recent success on the feet and instead steers clear of Benitez kicking game by bringing the fight to the mat I think he has a decent chance of emerging with a decision win here.
Pick: Jim Miller wins by decision.
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Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
Ricky Simon’s five-fight winning streak came to an end in his only fight in 2023 after being TKO’d by Song Yadong and now he steps back in to fight Mario Bautista, who coincidentally is on a five-fight unbeaten stretch of his own.
Simon has done pretty well with his industrious and tenacious wrestle-boxer style over the years, putting together a respectable 8-3 run in the UFC. He is a fighter who can lean on his toughness over technique at times though, and so he might be a bit unsettled that his normally sturdy chin was blemished via that TKO loss last time out. Still, he continues to be a thorn in many fighters flesh with his high-tempo pressure from start to finish.
The 30-year-old Bautista is also a hard-worker and he has a solid set of skills, offering good volume and respectable technique on the feet, while he’s a capable offensive wrestler and has a good submission presence on the mat that’s presented finishes in three of his last four wins. His takedown defense isn’t the best though.
I think this should be a competitive battle, but I do feel that Simon may just hold a slight advantage overall with his relentless pressure and nice transitions from striking to wrestling, resulting a close decision victory.
Pick: Ricky Simon wins by decision.
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Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
Phil Hawes is at a worrying spot in his career having been KO’d in the first round in three of his last four fights, while Brunno Ferreira earned a KO win in his debut, but has since been KO’d himself in just 77 seconds last July.
The 34-year-old Hawes seems to be a ‘glass cannon’ at this stage. Heavily muscled and possessing genuine knockout power, he’s a big threat on the feet, but at the same time a single blow could be all it takes to put him to sleep. It’s unfortunate as he did appear to have significant potential, but hasn’t been able to make the most of it. Hawes has perhaps been guilty of not making the most of a fairly solid wrestling game, and that may be his best bet going forward to try to steady the ship.
The 31-year-old Ferreira may be at risk of following in Hawes footsteps as he’s also a muscular middleweight with big finishing power in his fists who likes to go for the knockout, but is quite hittable and his quick KO loss time ago could potentially be a recurring theme if he doesn’t focus more on his defense.
I’m tempted to pick Hawes as he’s still potent offensively and his wrestling could be a significant factor if he’s willing to use it. That being said, all signs point to his chin having deserted him at this stage and given Ferreira’s commitment to throwing heavy leather I’ll take him to land a big blow in the opening round to potentially put an end to Hawes time in the UFC.
Pick: Brunno Ferreira to win by KO in Rd1.
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Prelims (Predicted winner in bold)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
Felipe Bunes vs. Joshua Van
Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos
Nikolas Motta vs. Tom Nolan
Jean Silva vs. Westin Wilson
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
