UFC Fight Night 261 takes place tomorrow night in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira suffered a KO loss when he attempted to win back the belt against Ilia Topuria in June. Now he returns against Mateusz Gamrot, who has been drafted in on just 10 days notice in place of the injured Rafael Fiziev.

It’s somewhat concerning that Oliveira is fighting again only four months after that tough knockout loss to Topuria. It’s not the first time there’s been concerns over ‘Oliveira’s’ durability as earlier in his UFC run he suffered several losses to strikes, but he then went on an impressive 11-fight unbeaten stretch. Truth be told though, even at his peak he was frequently rocked, so at 35-years-old there is a risk that his chin might now be in danger of giving out completely. All that aside though, Oliveira is still one of the most offensively potent fighters in the history of the sport. That’s particularly true on the mat where his BJJ skill, creativity and killer instinct have led him to a UFC record 16 submission finishes. And Oliveira has also done well over the years to further hone his muay thai striking to ensure he’s also a significant threat on the feet, as the likes of Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush can testify. 48 fights into his career Oliveira is now starting to regularly alternate between wins and losses, and during fight week he has hinted that his next fight after this one could be his last.

Many fighters hesitated to accept a short-notice clash with Charles Oliveira, but Gamrot jumped at the opportunity to get a high-profile fight that could push him further up the 155lb rankings from his current spot at No.8. Gamrot has won four of his last five bouts and stylistically he’ll feel there’s opportunities to exploit here, particularly with his very solid wrestling game that gives him good takedown options and stifling control on top, while using his assured grappling to potentially neutralize Oliveira’s submission threat. And though the 34-year-old lacks his opponent’s dynamic finishing threat on the feet, he does have solid fundamentals, a good chin, is well conditioned and knows how to use his strikes to set up his takedown attempts.

This is certainly a clash of styles, with Oliveira being all about finding a finish wherever the fight goes and thriving in spur of the moment opportunities, while Gamrot will seek sustained pressure and control with one eye on ensuring he does enough to win on the scorecards. It’s tough to go five full rounds with a finishing machine like Oliveira though, particularly on short notice, and so with the Brazilian support behind him I’ll take ‘Do Bronxs’ to fight through some frustrating periods and then pounce on a submission finish in the 4th round.

Pick: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in Rd4.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

Deiveson Figueiredo arrives for this match-up following the first two-fight skid of his career, while Montel Jackson rides the momentum of a six-fight winning streak.

A former flyweight champion, Figueiredo’s campaign up at bantamweight got off to a strong start with wins over stalwarts like Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera. However, his climb stalled with a decision loss to Petr Yan, followed by a TKO defeat against Cory Sandhagen due to a freak knee injury in May. Though undersized for the division at 5’5”, Figueiredo’s speed, movement, and surprising power for his frame help make up for it. He’s accurate with both punches and kicks, though his output can be limited due to his tendency to hunt for big shots. On the mat, he’s a solid wrestler and scrambler with a submission threat, and his durability remains a plus point, with his only two TKO losses came via injury and doctor stoppage.

The 33-year-old has had to get to this point the long way as despite fighting in the promotion since 2018 he was consigned to the prelims until his last fight. That’s surprising as not only is he now on a six-fight winning streak, but he also holds the record for the most knockdowns in UFC bantamweight history (11), though admittedly he’s now taking a considerable step up in competition. Still, he’s a big physical presence and will enjoy a sizeable 5″-inch” height and 7.5″-inch” reach advantage over Figueiredo. Despite his power and a couple of KO wins in his last three fights, Jackson typically fights with patience and uses his boxing fundamentals, speed, precision and defensive composure to win exchanges. He’s never been finished inside the distance, but it should be noted that there have been occasions that he’s struggled by getting outwrestled.

Figueiredo’s best path may be to lean on his grappling and test Jackson on the mat, but I suspect much of this contest is likely to unfold on the feet. And with that in mind I think Jackson’s size, reach, and calculated power striking will give him the edge against the veteran to earn a decision victory.

Pick: Montel Jackson wins by decision.

Vicente Luque vs. Joel Álvarez

After winning just two of his last six fights, Vicente Luque now fights Joel Alvarez, who is on a three-fight winning streak as he now comes in on just two weeks notice to replace Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Luque has struggled to regain his old form since suffering a brain haemorrhage following a knockout loss to Geoff Neal in 2022. Though medically cleared to return after a year out, the incident has proven to be a challenging psychological hurdle to overcome for a fighter whose style relied on his toughness and durability. Once known for his willingness to absorb punishment in order to dish out his own, Luque now fights more cautiously. He does still bring technical striking and a dangerous submission arsenal to the table, but there is a sense now that he’s more vulnerable when things aren’t going his way.

The 32-year-old Alvarez is not only coming in on a fortnight’s notice, but is also stepping up a weight class to take on this challenge. That’s perhaps not quite such a big deal as it might first seem given that he’s always been an unusually large lightweight at 6’3” with a 77-inch reach, and he’ll still enjoy a 4-inch height and 1.5-inch reach advantage over Luque. Alvarez uses his length effectively from range with solid punches and kicks, but also has punishing elbows and knees in close, with the latter helping deliver is latest two stoppage wins. While his striking has become increasingly effective, it’s his grappling that has long been his calling card, with 17 submission victories to his name so far. And remarkably that means all 22 of his career wins have come inside the distance.

Luque’s in an unfortunate position here as his originally intended fight with Ponzinibbio seemed like a fairer clash of past-their-best veterans. Now he’s up against a fighter who, though only a year younger than him, feels much fresher and still in his prime. As such I think this will prove to be a tough fight for him, with Alvarez finding a home for hard-hitting strikes that Luque can’t recover from in the second round for a TKO finish.

Pick: Joel Alvarez wins by TKO in Rd2.

Jhonata Diniz vs. Mário Pinto

Jhonata Diniz enters this fight with a 4–1 UFC record, and is now set to face the undefeated Mario Pinto, who went 10–0 with a win in his UFC debut earlier in the year.

Diniz is a seasoned striker who spent over a decade in pro-kickboxing competing for the likes of Glory before moving on to MMA in 2022. Now 34-years-old, his striking has translated well in the cage so far, compiling a 9–1 MMA record that includes seven knockout finishes. His striking is crisp, fast, and technical for a heavyweight, but his late start in the sport has left him underequipped on the , mat, which Marcin Tybura exploited to finish him with ground-and-pound late last year.

The 27-year-old Pinto earned his UFC contract with a first-round knockout on the Contender Series and followed it up with another KO in his debut against Austen Lane. Pinto is in good shape physically for a big heavyweight and combines solid fundamentals with fight-ending power. While his recent wins highlight his finishing potential, his regional run also showed he can fight with patience, even succesfully going the distance in a five-rounder. Still, he is hittable, hasn’t faced much in the way of notable opposition yet, and his grappling has yet to be tested at this level.

These two match up fairly well in several regards, but i’m leaning towards Diniz thanks to the fact he’s more tried and tested due to his long kickboxing career, while will enable him to take advantage of Pinto’s defensive weaknesses to secure a 2nd round TKO finish.

Pick: Jhonata Diniz wins by TKO in Rd2.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli

Ricardo Ramos has only won once in his last four Octagon appearances, while Kaan Ofli is 0-2 so far.

The 30-year-old Ramos’ struggles actually span back as far as 2020, with just three wins in eight Octagon appearances since then. With that being said, he does however remain a versatile offensive threat. On the feet, he isn’t the most active striker, but his muay thai striking and clinch work can pose problems, and he was ahead of the curve earlier in his UFC run with two spinning back elbow knockouts. Ramos is even more potent on the mat, where seven of his 11 career finishes have come by submission. That said, he’s also been tapped out in back-to-back fights not long ago, and inconsistency under pressure has been a recurring issue.

The 32-year-old Ofli earned his UFC shot by making a good impact on TUF 32, but he was knocked out in the final by Mairon Santos, then dropped a decision in his follow-up bout. Ofli brings pressure and respectable striking on the feet, though his questionable defense leaves him open to counters. Still, Ofli uses that forward momentum to set up takedowns, leaning on his solid wrestling and black belt in BJJ, which has produced five submission wins to date. However, he has yet to prove he can translate those tools into success at the UFC level.

Both men have vulnerabilities, but Ramos has shown he can compete against higher-calibre opposition. With the Brazilian crowd behind him, I think he’ll find a home for the cleaner, more impactful strikes here while mixing in some grappling to secure a decision victory.

Pick: Ricardo Ramos wins by decision.

Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell

Lucas Almeida is just 1-3 in his last four bouts as he now gets ready to fight Michael Aswell, who was defeated on the scorecards in his UFC debut.

The 34-year-old Almeida is a tall 145lb’er who will enjoy the benefit of an extra 4″ in height and 2″ in reach on Saturday. He’s an aggressive striker who is eager to exchange blows, backed by genuine knockout power and keen finishing instincts, with 14 of his 15 career wins coming inside the distance, including nine by strikes and the rest by submission. However, there are issues as he lacks speed,, his defense can be porous, and his gas tank can be a problem too. In recent years his confidence has also been dented by suffering his first TKO and submission defeats.

The 25-year-old Aswell is a former Fury FC 145lb champion who initially featured on the Contender Series last year, but ended up on the wrong end of a split-decision loss against Bogdan Grad. Still, his performance impressed enough that nearly a year later he was offered the opportunity to step in on just three days notice up a division against Bolaji Oki. It was a tough assignment, and he dropped a unanimous decision, but now he returns to his natural weight class at 145 for his next fight. Young, athletic, and well-rounded, Aswell has solid striking, respectable power, and capable wrestling, while he’s never been finished across his 10–3 career.

Despite a couple of setbacks Aswell appears to have a respectable foundation skill-wise to fight for his place in the UFC and I think with his speed and athleticism he can get the better of Almeida on the scorecards.

Pick: Michael Aswell wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter
Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva
Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll
Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira