UFC Fight Night 266 takes place tomorrow night at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Mario Bautista looks to rebound from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov that ended an eight-fight winning streak when he fights Vinicius Oliveira, who has started his UFC run with four straight victories.
Bautista is a hard-working, well‑rounded fighter who relies on pace, cardio and pressure rather than knockout power to get the better of his opponents. The 32-year-old has good volume on the feet, is durable, strong in the clinch, and mixes in takedowns well. he’s also a proven threat on the mat with six career submission wins, and has solid ground-and-pound too.
The 30-year-old Oliveira is the more explosive striker of the two, and burst into the UFC with a flying‑knee KO in 2024 after having also notched up a fast KO win on the Contender Series. As his level of competition has increased, the knockouts have diminished, but he’s still had what it takes to beat the likes of Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips on the scorecards. His main vulnerability may prove to be his durability though, with all three of his losses coming via strikes, while his ground game isn’t as notable as his striking.
Oliveira is the bigger finishing threat, but Bautista’s toughness and conditioning over five‑rounds will be a big asset that helps him gradually take over the fight to win by decision.
Pick: Mario Bautista wins by decision.
Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Amir Albazi enters this fight off his first UFC loss, while Kyoji Horiguchi returned to the Octagon last November with a convincing submission win.
Albazi started his UFC run strongly, going 5–0, but major health issues have since stalled his momentum. After beating Kai Kara‑France in 2023, Abazi had to both heart surgery to fix an irregular heartbeat, and then serious neck surgery that kept him out for 18 months. He was then thrown straight back into the fire against former champion Brandon Moreno, losing out by unanimous decision. Nevertheless, Albazi is still a well‑rounded, technically sound fighte. He’s clean and accurate on the feet, though his low output and lack of notable stopping power is a drawback, but he backs that up with solid wrestling and a strong submission game that’s garnered 9 submission finishes from 16 career victories.
Over a decade ago Horiguchi was a top UFC flyweight whose only loss came in a title fight against Demetrious Johnson. He surprisingly left the UFC after a 7-1 run, going on to spend seven successful years fighting primarily for Rizin, where he won both their flyweight and bantamweight belts, as well as Bellator’s 135lb title too. Along the way he defeated a number of respected opponents like Manel Kape, Kai Asakura, Ian McCall and Sergio Pettis, and he’s now smoothly transitioned back to the UFC with a strong performance against Tagir Ulanbekov. His comeback fight showed that he remains fast, dynamic and dangerous everywhere, with finishing power on the feet, strong wrestling and good grappling.
This is a competitive match-up, but Albazi’s long layoff and recent struggles raise questions, while Horiguchi has hit the ground running upon his return to the Octagon, and with his more active offense I think he’ll get the better of the stand-up action to secure a decision win.
Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi wins by decision.
Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Jailton Almeida steps in on short notice after a split‑decision loss to Alexander Volkov to fight Rizvan Kuniev, who also looks to rebound from a split‑decision defeat in his debut against Curtis Blaydes.
Almeida is 8–2 in the UFC and has set out his stall as one of the division’s best operators on the mat. The 34-year-old has good takedowns and has a dominant top game to keep his opponent’s under control. He’s traditionally been a strong finisher from there, with only 1 of his 22 career victories having gone the distance, including 13 win via submission. However, recently he’s started to take a more cautious, grinding approach, which last time out against Volkov led to long spells of inactivity, which ultimately led to him losing by decision. Meanwhile, Almeida’s striking is functional, using his footwork and speed to stay elusive while waiting for opportunities to close the distance.
The 33-year-old Kuniev earned his contract with two Contender Series wins and was then thrown in against a top-5 heavyweight in Blaydes, fighting to an uneventful split-decision loss. Despite hailing from Dagestan, Kuniev actually favors striking over wrestling. he utilizes a solid boxing base and has good power in his punches, while he’ll also mix in kicks and clinch work. He’s also durable and has never been finished in 17 fights, while he can grapple when needed.
Kuniev will try to stay upright, but I think Almeida will be able to secure takedowns and control significant stretches of this fight. I’d also expect him to take a more active approach on top than last time out, and perhaps that’ll lead to a finish, but I’ll take him to settle for a decision victory in the end.
Pick: Jailton Almeida wins by decision.
Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-André Barriault
Michal Oleksiejczuk comes in off two 1st round TKO victories in 2025 to fight Marc-Andre Barriault, who has lost four of his last five bouts.
Oleksiejczuk is an all‑action pressure striker who looks to overwhelm opponents early, and has good success in doing so. In fact, 8 of his 9 UFC victories so far have all ended in the first round via strikes. The 30-year-old’s aggression does leave him open defensively though, but he’s proven very durable up to this point, with only once stopping loss dating back over 10 years ago. More problematic though has been his grappling defense as 5 of his 7 defeats have been by submission, though that’s not something that should be a concern in this particular match-up.
The 35-year-old Barriault has built his career on being a limited and somewhat plodding, but durable battler on the feet who could outlast enough opponents to stick around in the UFC. By 2023 he’d compiled a 5–5 (1 NC) record in the Octagon, but since then he’ been in a slump, including suffering three losses in 2024 that worryingly included back‑to‑back first‑round KO’s. That’s a big concern for a fighter that relies a lot on his toughness, and though he did rebound with a win over an even more faded Bruno Silva, his most recent outing saw him absorb heavy damage during a decision loss to Shara Magomedov.
Given Barriault’s declining durability this looks like a good fight for Oleksiejczuk to use his knockout power and sturdy chin to dish out a 1st round finish.
Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO in Rd1.
Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat
Jean Matsumoto is 3–1 in the UFC and now meets the undefeated Farid Basharat, who has gone 5–0 in the promotion.
The 26-year-old Matsumoto suffered his first career loss in a split decision to Rob Font last year, but still has a strong overall record of 17-1. He’s a fast, high‑volume muay thai striker who is comfortable operating at close quarters, even if he absorbs a bit too many strikes at times. He hasn’t proven to be a particularly hard-hitter, but he is well-rounded with solid grappling that’s led to 6 submission wins, while he also has good cardio.
The 28-year-old Basharat is 14–0 in his career, and has strung together five wins in the UFC since joining from the Contender Series. He has good striking technique, is defensively sound and stays active, but doesn’t have a cutting edge on the feet to finish fights. However, he blends in well‑timed wrestling and is a confident grappler with 6 submission victories.
These are two talented fighters who match-up well together. As such it could go either way, but I think Basharat is better defensively on the feet and has the edge in terms of his wrestling, which will help him to edge out a win on the scorecards.
Pick: Farid Basharat wins by decision.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker
Dustin Jacoby comes in off two knockout wins to open the main card against Julius Walker, who has gone 1–1 so far in the Octagon.
The 37-year-old Jacoby has rebounded well after a rough 1–4 dip in form that ended with a KO loss to Dominick Reyes in mid-2024. A knockout win later that year helped him steady the ship and he’s since picked up another KO victory. Jacoby is an experienced fighter who has had spells in kickboxing as well as MMA, and is no stranger to digging himself out of losing slumps over the years. He remains a physically strong fighter whose kickboxing style is rooted in the fundamentals, with good power in his punches being backed up by heavy low kicks, while he’s not out of his element if the fight hits the mat.
The 26-year-old is still relatively early in his career given that his 7–1 career began less than three years ago. He’s athletic and well‑rounded for his experience level, focusing on good punches down the pipe and solid low kicks, mixed in with a capable wrestling and submission threat. Most of his wins so far have come inside the distance, but the caveat is that he hasn’t faced many seasoned opponents yet, other than Alonzo Menifield, who beat him by split-decision. That fight suggested that he still lacks some of the finer naunces on the feet, and in the past there’s been signs that his takedown defense needs work, while he also has atendency to give up his back that could get him in trouble if not addressed.
Walker has potential and is still developing from fight to fight, but I think the far more experienced Jacoby will prove to be the superior striking technician to win by decision.
Pick: Dustin Jacoby wins by decision.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Javid Basharat
Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura
Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wikłacz
Klaudia Syguła vs. Priscila Cachoeira
