The final UFC event of the years is upon us and we’ve got our predictions for all the UFC ON ESPN 63 fights from Tampa, Florida below.
Main Card
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
12 months ago Colby Covington fell short of winning the welterweight title for the third time in his career when he lost on the scorecards to Leon Edwards. Now he attempts to regroup in a headlining fight taken on four weeks notice against Joaquin Buckley, who is currently on a five-fight winning run.
In some respects you could point to Covington’s first title shot in late 2019 against Kamaru Usman as being a turning point in his career. Up until then he’d only lost once in his 16 fight career and was proving to be exceptionally difficult to deal with thanks to his incredible cardio and work-rate, which saw him make up for his lack of power and high-level technique by unleashing an extremely high volume approach to striking, while also having a strong wrestling foundation that could enable him to grind out wins when required. However, in Usman he faced a fighter who could match his pace, and it led to him suffering a late TKO stoppage and a broken jaw into the bargain. It could be argued he’s never been quite the same since, even if he did pick up a couple of wins in-between his unsuccessful title challenges. His last fight was by far the clearest example of the now 36-year-old’s decline though as he appeared out-of-sorts and hesitant to engage.
While Covington has been losing steam, it’s been the opposite for the 30-year-old Buckley, who first made a name for himself with a stunning spinning back-kick KO win in his 2nd UFC fight back in 2020 that demonstrated his powerful, dynamic striking off to the world when it went viral on social media. He continued to prove that wasn’t a one-off with more knockout finishes as time went on, but also faltered at times too, suffering a couple of KO losses, while also having cardio issues at times too. However, Buckley has done well to not just settle for being an entertaining striker willing to settle for winning some and losing others. For one thing a drop down to welterweight has worked out well, and together with pacing himself better in fights in case the big KO finish doesn’t come it’s meant he’s now more consistent from start to finish, and he’s even shown off some decent offensive wrestling too and been improving his takedown defense. The results speak for themselves with five wins in a row, but this is certainly his biggest test yet.
This is a pivotal fight for Covington as if he shows up as passive and hesitant as he was last time out then Buckley could steamroller him with his power and speed advantage on the feet. That being said, if Covington can rediscover his old drive, press the action and seek to use his wrestling then this could be a chance to show he’s still a major player in the division. I’m not so sure though. You have to question how motivated he is at this point in his career, particularly with yet another title shot likely being harder to obtain at this point. And given how jaded he looked against Edwards and the fact he took this fight on a month’s notice I’m tempted to say the in-form Buckley lands some big strikes to make him wary in the early rounds and then finds a TKO finish in the third.
Pick: Joaquin Buckley wins by TKO in Rd3.
Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
Both Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo have been alternating between wins and losses over the past few years, and with each coming off a defeat last time out that means the pattern is about to be broken for one of them.
It tends to be harder to stick around in the fast-paced lighter weight classes as fighters get older, but Swanson is doing his best to defy that as he’s still proving to be fairly competitive despite now being 41-years-old. Of course he’s not as fast as he used to be and can’t push quite the same pace, but he is still athletic and dynamic for his age and is still a skilled, versatile striker who can pose plenty of problems on the feet. He’s also not as durable as he once was though and a career-long issue with submission defense continues to be a concern, even if he is a somewhat capable scrambler on the mat.
Quarantillo is no spring-chicken either at 36, but so far age hasn’t taken too much of a toll on him, which is just as well as he is a fighter who relies a lot on being able to use his cardio and durability to push the pace and swarm opponents with strikes to make up for not being the most technical or defensively-sound fighter. Quarantillo can also wrestle and is capable of offering up a submission threat at times.
Several years ago I’d have likely picked Swanson here as he is the better striker of the two and wouldn’t be happy to fight at a high tempo. I do question whether at this age and stage he can still match Quarantillo’s intensity over three rounds though. I think he’ll get the better of the early striking exchanges, but will struggle to keep that going in the later rounds as Quarantillo eats his strikes and keeps pushing forward, leading him to edge out a decision win.
Pick: Billy Quarantillo wins by decision.
Manel Kape vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva
Manel Kape suffering a loss last time out that ended a four-fight winning streak and now goes up against Bruno Gustavo da Silva, who is currently on a four-fight unbeaten stretch of his own.
The 31-year-old Kape is a force to be reckoned with in the striking department as he’s big, fast, dynamic and has uncommon finishing power by 125lb standards. His natural inclination is to not just charge in with fists and feet flying though, and while that’s generally speaking a good thing, in his case he does have a habit of waiting too long to engage, waiting for the perfect moment to suddenly launch into a thunderous punch, flying knee or head kick, and that can cost him rounds and indeed fights at times. Meanwhile, Kape has pretty solid takedown defense and isn’t out of his depth on the mat with decent wrestling and some submission ability, but he prefers to be upright.
The 34-year-old Silva is in good form right now thanks to a solid all-round skill-set that’s seen him win all four his latest fights by either strikes or submission. He’s demonstrated strength of character to get to this point as he actually had a rough start to his UFC run, going winless in his first three fights. Silva tends to opt for boxing fundamentals when striking and has good power, while he’s also a competent wrestling and has good grappling.
Silva seems like a jack-of-all-trades fighter who doesn’t necessarily stand out in any particular one area, while on the other hand Kape is clearly a very talented striker, though one who doesn’t always take full advantage of that in his performances. Overall I favor Kape to give Silva real trouble in the striking exchanges here and that’ll lead him to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Manel Kape wins by TKO in Rd2.
Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
Vitor Petrino is coming off a submission loss, but had won four UFC fights in a row prior to that. He’ll end the year going up against Dustin Jacoby, who is hoping to end a disappointing run of form that’s seem him lost four of his last five fights.
The 27-year-old Petrino arrived in the UFC from the Contender Series in 2022 as a fighter who still had a lot of rough edges to his game, and while it could be argued that’s still the case to some extent, he has performed well for the most part, winning his first four fights in the Octagon to go 11-0 overall before being quickly submitted by Anthony Smith last time out. Petrino doesn’t have the highest output in the striking department but he makes up for it with plenty of power, particularly up close and has shown a knack for being able to land on the counter. Petrino will also look for the occasional takedown and has good ground-and-pound, but his defense and general decision-making can be suspect at times and his tendency to use power and strength in all aspects of his game rather than clean technique can take a toll on his cardio.
The 36-year-old Jacoby has been through a lot of tough times in his career when you consider that his first UFC stint in 2011 came to an abrupt halt after losing his first two fights, before also having similarly brief winless spells in both WSOF and Bellator after that. Jacoby then fought for Glory kickboxing though and eventually found his way back to the UFC, where he showed a distinct uptick in form by going on a seven-fight winning streak. Jacoby didn’t necessarily look like a world-beater at the time, but his solid kickboxing base, respectable punching power and hard leg kicks, together with decent ground game had matured enough to make his mark. It’s not been quite enough though as the quality of opposition has increased though and so after a few losses and being KO’d last time out he’s now back to just fighting to try to keep his spot on the roster.
Jacoby certainly has a chance here and his leg kicks could be a fact as Petrino has had issues with that at times. Still, with Petrino being almost 10 years younger and having the kind of power that will threaten Jacoby’s weakened chin I think he could get in close and land a finishing blow within the first five minutes.
Pick: Vitor Petrino wins by TKO In Rd1.
Adrian Yañez vs. Daniel Marcos
Adrian Yanez’s form dipped in 2023 with back-to-back losses, but he picked up a TKO win earlier in the year and now moves on to fight the unbeaten Daniel Marcos, who has strung together three victories and a no-contest in the Octagon.
The 31-year-old Yanez is a talented striker who fights at a high pace with impressive speed that enable him to get into range quickly and land fast, clean boxing combinations with power and also mix in the occasion threatening head kick too. Five of his six UFC victories have come by strikes as a result, but his desire to press forward can run him into strikes at times, and both of his 2023 defeats came via TKO. Yanez can also grapple when required, but he makes a point of trying to keep the action upright as much as possible.
Marcos is also 31 and may not be as fluid with his striking as Yanez, but he pushes a hard pace throughout his fights, has good technique and athleticism, and considerable punching power too. Like Yanez he’ll prefer to keep the fight on the feet and he’s riding high in confidence at the moment as you might expect from having gone 16-0 in his career to do date.
This should be a closely fought striking battle that could go either way, but I think Marcos is more consistent from start to finish with his work rate and is also more durable too, so I’ll say he is the one who’ll emerge with his hand raised when the scorecards are revealed.
Pick: Daniel Marcos wins by decision.
Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos
Navajo Stirling joined the UFC via the Contender Series in September and now opens the main card in his promotional debut against Tuco Tokkos, who was defeated in his first UFC fight earlier in the year.
The 27-year-old Stirling has a muay thai and kickboxing background and is actually on five fights into his pro-MMA career to date. He’s started well though, notching up four finishes via strikes, including a KO finish on the Contender Series. Clearly Stirling is still a work-in-progress as far as his all-round MMA game goes at this stage, but he’s a good athlete and has shown assured striking technique and notable power, but we’ve yet to see him tested against anyone of note yet.
That won’t change on Saturday night as the 34-year-old Tokkos is still trying to prove he’s worthy of his spot in the UFC after losing his debut to take his overall career record to 10-4. He’s a fighter who has made something of a habit of coming up short when it matters most as he also lost his two fights in Bellator as well as being defeated on the Road To UFC series a couple of years ago. Part of Tokkos’ problem is that he has a habit of brawling, and while he does have the power to be competitive his wayward technique and lack of care for defense can get him into trouble.
This looks like a fight where the UFC are trying to carefully handle an up-and-coming prospect in Stirling and I think he’ll be able to comfortably best Tokkos in the striking department here, and might well get his UFC career off to a flying start by delivering a TKO finish in the opening round.
Pick: Navajo Stirling wins by TKO in Rd1.
Prelims (Predicted winner in bold)
Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
Joel Álvarez vs. Drakkar Klose
Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla
Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez
