UFC On ESPN 72 Predictions

UFC On ESPN 72 takes place tomorrow night and you can find out predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez

Roman Dolidze comes in off a three-fight winning streak to headline this event against Anthony Hernandez, who has emerged victorious in his last seven Octagon appearances.

Dolidze has the kind of solid, dependable but unspectacular skill-set that means he’s never been one of the 185lb division’s most coveted fighters, but yet he has gone 9-3 during his time in the UFC and holds the No.9 spot in the rankings. And that could have been higher if it wasn’t for back-to-back defeats against Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov a couple of years ago, though he has since avenged the loss to Vettori. Dolidze is big and muscular for the division, likes to press forward and apply pressure with largely predictable, but impactful strikes, making use of his heavy hands and hard low kicks. Dolidze also has a solid wrestling game, good ground-and-pound and more capable BJJ than you might expect, although his three submission wins all came at the very start of his career. Dolidze has quite good cardio for his size and is durable too, having never been finished in his career.

The 31-year-old Hernandez took a while to find his feet in the UFC, losing two of his first three fights by TKO and submission, he’s since hit his stride and not looked back, and is perhaps unfortunate to still only be ranked No.10 in the division despite his seven-fight winning streak. Hernandez strongest suits are his very crafty grappling ability and being able to maintain his high-tempo intensity for as long as the fight lasts. He can mix things up on the feet too, opting for a high-volume approach, but he’ll take every opportunity he sees to go for takedowns and has had a good return on his investment there. Once on the mat Hernandez is very hard to shake off with his tireless grappling and control, skilled scrambling ability and ever-present submission threat.

Dolidze could try to use his wrestling defensively to keep this one upright and look to make the most of his power advantage, but I think Hernandez dogged determination to work for takedowns and relentless grappling work will gradually wear down Dolidze, leading to a third round submission victory.

Pick: Anthony Hernandez wins by submission in Rd3.


Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne

Steve Erceg comes in off a three-fight losing skid to fight late replacement opponent Ode Osbourne, who steps in for Hyun Sung Park on a week’s notice after a TKO win last time out.

There wasn’t a lot of fanfare when the 30-year-old Erceg first arrived in the UFC, but after impressing during his first three convincing victories he suddenly found himself leapfrogging others in the division to get a flyweight title shot last year. It proved to be too much too soon though as Erceg lost to current champion Alexandre Pantoja, and has since been TKO’d by Kai Kara-France and defeated by Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision. That doesn’t mean Erceg should be underestimated though as he’s still a good fighter with well-rounded skills. Erceg was actually better known for his assured grappling and capable wrestling when he first emerged from the regional circuit, where he had finished six fights by submission. However, he’s since proven to be a composed striker with good accuracy and timing to his boxing work, while he’ll also look for opportunities to mix in good elbow and some kicks too.

The 33-year-old Osbourne has struggled to find consistency during his 5-6 run in the UFC, and had actually come into this year off having lost his last three fights, but put an end to that with a TKO win in April. Due to him taking this fight on short notice it’ll be contested up at 135lbs, and that might well suit him as he’s a big, thickly muscled flyweight who will also have a 5″ reach advantage over Erceg. Osbourne is primarily a striker who dishes out fast punches and kicks from range with respectable power, and he can also mix in occasional takedowns to deliver ground-and-pound or look for a submission. Osbourne has less to offer defensively though, having been KO’d twice by strikes during his time in the UFC, while he’s also been submitted four times in his career.

Erceg has only lost to top contenders so far and I think he’s got enough in his locker to beat Osbourne here, who will be the faster of the two, but will be bested by ‘Astroboy’s’ more reliable, accurate striking and bigger threat on the mat, resulting in a 2nd round submission finish.

Pick: Steve Erceg wins by submission in Rd2.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill

Iasmin Lucindo’s loss to Amanda Lemos earlier in the year ended a four-fight winning streak and now she’ll take on Angela Hill, who has won three of her last five fights.

Though she’s still only 23-years-old, Lucindo has a lot of experience under her belt already, having already put together a 17-6 career record. A strong, stocky fighter, Lucindo is an aggressive striker who doesn’t have text-book technique, but will march down her opponent with power punches and isn’t put off by being hit back, while she can also use her physicality to outwrestle her rivals too. Despite being more of a finisher on the regional scene though, Lucindo has actually went to the scorecards in the vast majority of her UFC fights so far.

Hill is on the other end of the spectrum age-wise compared to Lucindo at 40-years-old, but to her credit she’s not shown much sign of age catching up to her yet. That’s just as well as Hill does rely on her good conditioning to push the pace on the feet as though she’s primarily a striker with good technical fundamentals she lacks finishing power, so has to lean on a high-volume approach to best her opponents on the scorecards. Hill is also stronger than you’d expect in the clinch and has tried to develop her offensive wrestling and grappling in the later years of her career. That being said, her takedown defense still isn’t the best and her lack of a cutting edge on the feet is also reflected on the mat, where she holds just one submission win.

Despite her age it’s possible that HIll could just outwork Lucindo with her busier striking and capable clinch-work, but I do feel Lucindo will land the harder strikes and find some success working in takedowns to get a narrow decision nod here.

Pick: Iasmin Lucindo wins by decision.

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez

Andre Fili has been alternating between wins and losses for much of his long run in the Octagon, and coming off a submission loss in February he now fights Christian Rodriguez, who has compiled a 5-3 record in the UFC.

In total the 33-year-old Fili has gone 12-11 (+1nc) during his 12-years in the promotion, which doesn’t make for great reading, but he is better than that suggests. He’s a tall and lean 145lb’er who’ll have a 4″ height and 3″ reach advantage here. He generally fights at at measured pace with reasonably technical striking from range and he likes to make use of his good counter-striking ability, but he will fight with more tempo and aggression if needed. Fili can also work for takedowns, though he’s been a bit inconsistent in that regard, and he’s not a fish-out-of-water on the mat. However, he was submitted last time out, and back on the feet he has proven to be quite hittable at times, which is becoming more of a problem now after being both KO’d and TKO’d in the last three years.

The 27-year-old Rodriguez has carved out a reputation as a prospect killer during his time in the UFC, putting an end to the unbeaten records of Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman, Isaac Dulgarian and Austin Bashi, but on the other hand veterans like Julian Erosa and Jonathan Pearce have got the better of him, and he slot out to Melquizael Costa in a competitive fight back in March. Rodriguez’s success against up-and-coming talents hasn’t been down to being bigger, faster or harder-hitting so much as just being a reliably solid, durable and well-conditioned all-rounder who is able to build as the fight goes on with good fundamentals, and a willingness to mix striking with mat work in a composed, calculated manner.

I think Rodriguez will take this opportunity to claim a veteran scalp for a change by applying pressure and being more robust, consistent and better defensively than Fili from round-to-round to earn a decision victory.

Pick: Christian Rodriguez to win by decision.

Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto

After winning his first two bouts last year, Miles Johns then ended the year on a decision loss. Now he returns to action against Jean Matsumoto, who is coming off a split-decision loss in February, but had won his two fights last year.

A former LFA bantamweight champion, the 31-year-old arrived in the UFC back in 2019 and has since put together a 6-3 (+1nc) run. Johns is part of a long-running theme of solid wrestlers who have a seemingly irresistible urge to strike instead. And as is also often the case, he isn’t the cleanest striker, but does have good punching power. As such he tends to load up on single big punches rather than combinations, and can overcommit in search of a finish. It’s also worth noting that while Johns did clock in back-to-back knockout finishes in the Octagon several years ago, he actually only has four wins via strikes overall in his 16-fight history. With that in mind, it feels like Johns would do well to incorporate more of his wrestling into his game-plan, but it’s hard to count on him doing so.

The 25-year-old Matsumoto’s gamble to accept his biggest fight to date against Rob Font on short-notice didn’t pay off and brought an end to his perfect 16-0 record, but under the circumstances only losing by split-decision to a well-respected veteran is still commendable. Matsumoto is a skilled muay thai striker with good speed, volume and conditioning with nice shot selection from range and good work at closer quarters, though he could still use some work to tighten up his defense. He’s not a particularly notable finisher on the feet, but he does also have solid grappling chops and has used that to earn six submission finishes so far.

Matsumoto is the better striking technician here, and with his pace and conditioning, together with doubts as to whether Johns will use his wrestling, I see him securing a decision victory here.

Pick: Jean Matsumoto wins by decision.

Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

Eryk Anders has won his last two fights as he now gets ready to fight Christian Leroy Duncan, who is 2-1 in his last three appearances.

Back-to-back wins is a novelty for the 38-year-old Anders given that you’d have to go back six years to find the last time he did that. And it could be argued his current run flatters to deceive somewhat given that Jamie Pickett was already on a long losing slump when he beat him last year, while Chris Weidman was long past his best and about to retire. Anders seemed like he had promise when he first arrived in the UFC in 2017 as a former linebacker with clear athletic potential, having just beaten a youthful Brendan Allen in LFA. Anders never really broke though in a major way though and while he’s spent the past eight years in the Octagon he’s only mustered an indifferent 9-8 (+1nc) record. Anders does still have good physicality, power and respectable striking fundamentals though, as well as solid takedowns defense and the option to mix in some wrestling. It can seem like he’s coasting at times with a low-volume striking style though, and he likes to keep his hands low, which leads to him being hittable, and while he’s generally proven to be durable, he is starting to get hurt more than he used to when he’s caught.

Duncan had a 7-0 run in the Cage Warriors promotion before signing for the UFC in 2023 and has put together four wins and two losses since. The 30-year-old is an exciting striker who stays active with dynamic, creative offense that will see him blend in flying knees and spinning techniques into his attacks, while he also has nice elbows and uppercuts at closer range. To his credit he manages to maintain good accuracy, so it’s not all just for show, and he does have eight finishes via strikes from 11 career victories so far. He prefers to stay standing, but Duncan is also willing to mix in wrestling and does have a submission win on his record. There are drawbacks though as Duncan doesn’t like being put on the back foot and pressured, and his versatile selection of strikes does come at the expense of reliable defense, leaving him vulnerable at times, though he’s yet to be stopped in his career.

I think that Duncan’s work-rate and far more versatile striking style will catch the judges eye here, leading him to win on the scorecards.

Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan wins by decision.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Julius Walker vs. Raffael Cerqueira
Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama
Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Uroš Medić vs. Gilbert Urbina
Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko