UFC Fight Night 281 takes place tomorrow night in Oklahoma City and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.
Main Card
Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman
Dricus du Plessis returns after losing the middleweight title to Khamzat Chimaev to fight former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, who bested Joaquin Buckley over five rounds at 170lbs last time out.
The 32-year-old Du Plessis compiled nine straight wins in the UFC, including two title defenses, before facing Khamzat last time out, who was able to dominate him with big takedowns and top control for 25 minutes to seize the title. Historically DDP hasn’t been a pushover on the mat as he does have 11 submission wins, but his wrestling is more driven by strength than technique, and his takedown defense isn’t the best. Even on the feet his striking is surprisingly unrefined for someone at his level, but it’s nonetheless proven to be effective and earned him wins over the likes of Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland (twice) and Robert Whittaker. He’s a physically strong fighter who likes to attack in bursts of power punches, can mix in the occasional head kick attempt and in addition to being very durable his cardio is deceptively reliable as he seems able to sustain a good work rate even when he’s breathing heavy and looks exhausted.
The 39-year-old Usman was once a dominant welterweight champion, defending the belt five times during a long winning streak that demonstrated his well-rounded skill-set that includes high-level wrestling and assured boxing fundamentals that are enhanced by his excellent endurance and good fight IQ. His reign ended unexpectedly with an out-of-the-blue head kick KO loss to Leon Edwards back in 2022 and majority‑decision loss in the rematch, raising concerns about his age, along with suggestions that knee issues were also taking their toll and restricting his ability to wrestle. Usman has always remained confident in his ability though and tried to prove it by moving up to 185lbs to face Khamzat, where he was able to be competitive, but lost by majority‑decision. However, last summer he looked revitalized back down at 170lbs against Juaquin Buckley, leaning heavily on his wrestling to earn a convincing decision win.
So while he’s not as formidable as he was in his prime, even a this late stage in his career Usman is still not an easy fight for anyone. Even so, while he’s the technically better fighter, up at middleweight I do think du Plessis will be able to use his advantages in size, strength and power to gain the upper-hand in the striking exchanges and limit engagements on the mat to win by decision.
Pick: Dricus du Plessis wins by decision.
Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Jared Caonnier has won just once in his last four fights, and now fights Christian Leroy Duncan, who is on a four-fight unbeaten stretch.
At 42, Cannonier is clearly at the tail-end of his career, but while his speed, reactions and output may have dipped a bit, he’s still athletic for his age and continues to compete against high-level opposition. His striking continues to be technical with good power in his punches and hard-hitting low kicks, and he can mix in takedowns every now and then to deliver hard ground‑and‑pound. Meanwhile his durability is still serviceable, though he has been getting hurt more often recently, including being dropped twice early by Gregory Rodrigues last year before rallying for a TKO victory in the 4th round.
The 30-year-old Duncan has been putting on a show while steadily climbing into the rankings thanks to his very dynamic, creative striking. His current run of form includes back-to-back spinning‑elbow and spinning‑backfist KOs, and that’s no freak occurrence as his whole career has been littered with big finishes of that nature, from flying knees to spinning heel kicks and numerous elbow-based figh-enders. Duncan’s offensive focus does mean that he is there to be hit at times though and he’s not as effective when pressured, but even so he’s 14‑2 in his career and has never been finished.
Cannonier deserves a lot of credit for continuing to compete at this level for so long, but the cracks are showing and I do think he’s now vulnerable to someone with Duncan’s unpredictable and potent striking arsenal, which will enable CLD to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan wins by TKO In Rd2.
Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez
Chase Hooper and Mitch Ramirez are both in the same boat on Saturday night as they look to get back on track after suffering back‑to‑back TKO losses.
The 26-year-old Hooper has mixed results early in his UFC run, but then managed to hit a his stride, winning five fights in a row including beating veterans like Jim Miller and Clay Guida. However, long‑standing issues have since come back to haunt him as though he’s a talented grappler with dangerous submission ability, his striking remains awkward, lacks power, and has major vulnerabilities defensively. Combined with a suspect chin that’s led to two 1st round TKO finishes, to go along with another one earlier on in his UFC run.
The 33-year-old Ramirez is in a similar slump, but unlike Hooper has yet to prove that he can actually deliver in the Octagon. He arrived on the Contender Series back in 2023 as a 7‑0 prospect, but was TKO’d by none other than Carlos Prates that forced him back to the regional scene, where a win in LFA then earned a spot in the UFC. However, he’s since been TKO’d by both Thiago Moises and Mike Davis and so now has even more pressure to get in the win column. Ramirez does carry more power than Hooper, but even so he isn’t all that convincing on the feet, but his defensive grappling is competent even if he’s not a particularly notable submission threat.
It’s hard to put faith in a fighter with a weak chin, but even so I think Hooper’s superior grappling can be the deciding factor in this fight, though he may have to go a decision to emerge with his hand raised on this occasion.
Pick: Chase Hooper wins by decision.
Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline
Five-year UFC veteran Tabatha Ricci is 2-2 in her last four fights, while Fatima Kline has gone 3‑1 since joining the UFC a couple of years ago.
The 31-year-old is short at 5ft 1″, but she’s a strong, muscular strawweight with a well‑rounded game. On the feet she’s a fast, high‑volume boxer but while there’s some pop in her punches she lacks real stopping power. Meanwhile her judo base enables her to work well in the clinch and seek out takedowns, and she’s proven to be a capable grappler. However, even there she doesn’t have many finishes, but she has gone 7‑3 in fights that go the distance.
Kline entered the UFC in 2024 holding a 6‑0 record, only to then lose her promotional debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius up at flyweight. However, she then returned to strawweight and began to build momentum, picking up two TKOs before outworking Angela Hill for a decision victory last time out. The 26-year-old is an experienced grappler with solid ground‑and‑pound, reliable wrestling, and improving striking. Her head‑kicks in particular have been notable recently, enabling her to finish Melissa Martinez and drop Hill.
Ricci is a capable fighter but I do think the still-improving Kline is the better fighter overall and will be able to earn a decision victory here.
Pick: Fatima Kline wins by decision.
Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes
Tommy McMillen come sinto this fight with a perfect 10‑0 record after a first‑round TKO in his UFC debut, while Alberto Montes also won in his first fight for the promotion by submission to go 12-1.
The 28-year-old McMillen stormed through the regional scene with all first‑round finishes, but then had to show he could dig deeper when he had a bad first round on the Contender Series and eventually fought his way to a decision victory. His UFC debut went smoother though, picking up a quick stoppage victory. McMillen is a big featherweight at 6ft tall, giving him a 5″ edge in height and reach here. That helps fuel his aggressive, high‑output pressure striking that has overwhelmed most of his opponents, who haven’t been able to capitalize on his defensive flaws. McMillen does have more to offer than just that though as he can mix in clinch work and takedowns, while five of his nine stoppages have actually come via submission.
The 32-year-old Montes didn’t have an easy route to the UFC as he suffered some bad knee injuries along the way that held him back from making it to the Octagon earlier in his career. Over the years he’s found big success with his submission ability, accounting for seven of his eight finishes, with a particular focus on his anaconda / d’arce series that’s led to five of his last six wins. There is more to his grappling than just that though, while he also has a background in karate and muay thai background that gives him clean kicking technique, and has decent wrestling too.
McMillen’s size and aggression are significant factors here, but Montes is the more technical operator on the feet and has the better grappling if those exchanges lead to scrambling opportunities. As such my pick is Montes by second‑round submission.
Pick: Alberto Montes wins by submission in Rd2.
Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)
Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Ko Seok-hyeon
Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs. Felipe Franco
Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll
RJ Harris vs. Alvin Hines
Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa
