UFC Fight Night 278 takes plae tomorrow night in Las Vegas and we’ve got our predictions for all the fights below.

Main Card

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Ex-welterweight champion Belal Muhammad comes in off two defeats for a headlining fight against Gabriel Bonfim, who has won his last four fights in a row.

Muhammad spent years grinding his way up to a title shot, putting together a 10-fight unbeaten run before taking the belt from Leon Edwards in 2024. However, after all that he lost to Jack Della Maddalena in his first title defense and has since also lost to Ian Machado Garry on the scorecards. Muhammad, who turns 38 next month, has never been the most athletic or dangerous fighter, but he’s managed to build a successful career based on getting the best out of a solid but not spectacular all-round skill-set, backed up by good cardio, durability and fight IQ. Despite lacking a cutting edge on the feet, Muhammad smartly uses his pace and pressure to throw opponents off their game, while he also uses his solid wrestling to work for takedowns and clinch opportunities. Though that’s often been successful for him it should be noted that both his striking and wrestling have come up short in his last two fights, leading to concerns that he’s now starting to decline.

Bonfim may be 10 years younger than Muhammad, but he’s a seasoned pro with a 19–1 record, including going 6–1 in the UFC so far. Competing from a young age, Bonfim is a well-rounded fighter with good athleticism. He has clean kickboxing technique and puts together his combinations with good speed and footwork, though he’s not particularly known for his finishing power. His ground game is a real threat though with competent wrestling being backed up by slickgrappling that’s led him to 13 submission wins. His lone loss came from burning himself out trying to finish Nicolas Dalby a few years ago, and while he is generally well conditioned it’s worth considering that he’s never fought beyond the third round before.

There’s a lot to like about Bonfim here as he is a talented fighter with youth, speed, dynamism and more dangerous grappling on his side. Still, the fact that this is a five-rounder does play into Muhammad’s hands as he has the cardio advantage, while he’s also durable, has never been stopped via submission and has the better wrestling. So while Bonfim might get the better of the early action, I’ll take Muhammad to come into it the longer the fight goes to emerge with a decision win.

Pick: Belal Muhammad wins by decision.

Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

After winning twice last year, Brendan Allen now goes up against Edmen Shahbazyan, who compiled a three-fight winning streak in 2025.

The No.4 ranked Allen has put together an overall 14-4 record in the UFC since 2019. The 30-year-old doesn’t pull up too many trees in terms of his striking, though he does have solid kicks and good cardio. It’s on the mat that Allen really excels though, with dependable wrestling enabling him to implement his assured grappling, doing a good job of taking the back and staying there while working for his preferred rear-naked choke. In fact, 14 of his 26 career wins have come via submission, and 11 of those were by RNC.

Shahbazyan arrived in the UFC at a young age and showed early promise that he’s struggled to live up to in the years since. He’s always been something of an offensive powerhouse who can overwhelm opponents early on in fights with his hard-hitting mix of punches, kicks, knees, elbows, along with vicious ground‑and‑pound. Thirteen of his 16 career wins have come by knockout, and most of those came in the first round. The problem has always been what happens if he doesn’t get the early finish as his pace then falters and his defense suffers, leaving him vulnerable to being finished on the feet or on the mat. That’s led to a very patchy record at times in the UFC, but the 28-year-old’s recent uptick in form, including a rare decision win, has offered some hope, but lingering doubts about his ability to keep that going remain.

Stylistically it still feels like this is a fight where Shahbazyan’s best chance is to get an early finish, but Allen can disrupt that by getting the fight to the mat and gradually wear down his opponent to secure a submission stoppage in the second round.

Pick: Brendan Allen wins by submission in Rd2.

Farès Ziam vs. Tom Nolan

Fares Ziam has compiled a six-fight unbeaten run over the past few years and now takes on Tom Nolan, who has won his last four fights.

A tall lightweight at 6’0″ with a 75″ reach, the 29-year-old Ziam uses that to adopt a patient, technical kickboxing game from range, landing straight punches down the pipe along with quick kicks, while staying aware of his defensive responsibilities. He’s capable at closer quarters too though, utilizing knees and elbows in close, and in fact has produced two stoppages in his last three fights with those weapons. His main vulnerability has historically been early submission defeats, though he’s been working to tighten up his takedown defence and grappling over the past few years.

Like Ziam, the 26-year-old Nolan is a very big lightweight, standing 6ft 2″ tall, though he has 2″ less reach than his opponent. He too will look to use his stature to his advantage with long-range kickboxing, though he’s more active and less accurate than Ziam. Those who break into close range have to be wary of his knees, which have helped deliver three of his five wins via strikes over the years. Nolan can also get the job done over the full three rounds, and picked up his first submission victory last time out.

There’s some distinct similarities between these two big lightweights, but I do feel that while Ziam isn’t as active as Nolan, he’s the slicker, faster and more calculated fighter, which will help secure him a win on the scorecards.

Pick: Fares Ziam wins by decision.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna

Bryce Mitchell has alternated wins and losses in recent years, and will now attempt to break free of that cycle against the 21‑year‑old Santiago Luna, who is 2–0 in the UFC.

Mitchell was a stand-out early in his run with five wins in a row over the likes of Edson Barboza and Andre Fili. His form has been inconsistent since though, and his increasingly bizarre opinions outside‑the‑cage have damaged his credibility. Still, his recent losses came against top names like Ilia Topuria, Josh Emmett, and Jean Silva, so he’s still a fighter who shouldn’t be underestimated. Mitchell remains at his best on the mat, with unorthodox but effective wrestling, steady top control, and a crafty submission game that remains his best weapon and has produced 9 stoppage wins. Meanwhile his striking is less convincing, but he does have some power in his hands.

Luna is an 8–0 prospect who has shown big potential and composure so far for a 21-year-old. ‘Border Boy’ has very capable striking and demonstrated notable punching power that’s earned him a few stoppage wins and dropped several opponents. He complements that with a solid variety of takedowns and he has four rear‑naked choke wins too. Clearly at this age he’s still developing though and does have some defensive flaws, and this is a major jump in competition compared to anyone he’s faced so far.

Luna looks to have a bright future in the sport ahead of him if he continues to develop, but I do think this fight is a bit too much, too soon for him, with Mitchell proving to have the stronger ground game to emerge with a decision victory.

Pick: Bryce Mitchell wins by decision.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa

Iwo Baraniewski has two both his UFC fights so far and now fights Junior Tafa, who is 3–5 in the promotion.

The 27-year-old Baraniewski has yet to taste defeat in his eight-fight career, and has stopped both his UFC fights so far swiftly via strikes. Baraniewski actually comes from a judo and submission‑grappling base, which comes in handy, but isn’t his only option. He starts fast with aggressive, but still raw striking, and uses forward momentum and pressure to hit takedowns and unleash his heavy ground‑and‑pound. All his fights to date have ended in the 1st round against weak competition, and so we haven’t seen how he’ll hold up in a longer fight.

The 29-year-old Tafa is a former kickboxer who had a 3-4 in the Glory kickboxing promotion in the past. He’s been competing in MMA since 2022 though and after initially competing in the UFC at heavyweight with mixed results he’s dropped down to 205lbs lately, going 1-2 in the process. Tafa isn’t all that technical, but isn’t an out-and-out brawler either. He hits hard and throws heavy kicks, but his overall MMA game is very limited, with his defence on the mat in particular being a major liability. As such his two defeats at light-heavyweight so far came via submission, but he did rebound with a first‑round KO last time out.

I’d expect Baraniewski to look for a takedown early here, and from there it’s really his choice whether to go for a finish by either strikes or a submission.

Pick: Iwo Baraniewski wins by submission in Rd1.

Prelims (Predicted winners in bold)

Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler
Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito
Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben
Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi